- Banned
- #241
And to whose contortions do you refer? A report from scientists working with data from the Cryosat satellite indicated that unlike Arctic extents which have experienced a minor rebound (a little less negative, so to speak), the total volume of Arctic ice has continued to decline. Westwall posted extents data and made the claim that NSIDC had reported the ice volume was at its highest level in years. I saw no such statement in the material he posted and he has been unable to find such a comment from any authority as of this writing.
The 'denialists' here and elsewhere have been very heartened by the hiatus in rising atmospheric temperatures. That increased warming in the ocean compensates for that change and that above and beyond it all, the ToA imbalance HAS NOT CHANGED, makes all this hoopla more than a little crumbly in the basement.
Air temperatures were climbing rapidly before the 98 El Nino. If you believe it has stopped the Earth's accumulation of thermal energy, could you explain how?
The multi-year ice of all levels had been disappearing at least since the satellite record began. It was not all lost in some catastrophic year of bad weather.
I may be slow here, but it just occurred to me that future parents will have a problem maintaining that Santa keeps his workshop at the North Pole when the whole place goes all wat-ry every summer. Hmm.... have to think about that.
The hiatus has been ongoing for 15 years. If warming has actually stopped, there's been plenty of opportunity for a rebound in ice extent and volume. The problem, however, is that warm water has a far greater effect on ice melt than does warm air. The shunt of solar energy into the oceans lain on top of the increased direct solar heating from loss of albedo, has provided plenty of warmer water to facilitate continued melting.
Ahh... I guess we should have known.
You realize you are attempting to counter a number of theories dating back to the beginning of AGW-driven climate modeling. Increased snowfall in East Antarctica has been predicted by virtually every global warming model ever made. Both the growth of sea ice and the dramatically increased loss of land ice from Western Antarctica are, IMHO, due to losses of sea ice that uncorked the glacial flow of the ice sheet. The ice, at a dramatically accelerated rate, is sliding off the continent and into the ocean where it forms new shelf. Unfortunately, the Southern Ocean has been warming faster than any other piece of water on the planet and continues to warm. In the long run this will lead to increased melt and break up of the ice shelf. But, for now, increased precipitation (the same precip causing all that build up ashore) creates a lower density layer at the surface, slowing the normal (max rho @ 4C) overturn and enabling increased amounts of freezing.
The ozone hole also impacts atmospheric processes allowing increased cooling in the stratosphere. It also alters the wind patterns leading to a rotation which tends to spread the ice, increasing area and opening polynyas subject to more freezing.
The system is complex. Unwarranted simplification will not move us towards a true picture.
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