2012, close or a landslide?

[CrusaderFrank]

Obama will lose all but one or two of the 57 states he claims to have visited in 2008.

Dems and RINO's are looking at a 50-60 seat loss in Congress

Dems lose half their remaining State Houses

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Depends on who the GOP run. Bachmann or Palin for example all but guarantees an Obama victory and could easily by a landslide. However, Perry or Mitt, or even Pawlenty could beat Obama as things are now. Perry is probably the only of the three that could pull off a landslide win though.

Even if Obama wins though, I see it as a lonely victory party. I doubt the Democrats pick up a single House seat after this Debt Ceiling showdown and I could easily see them losing Senate Seats.... or even losing control of the Senate. There's a lot of really pissed of folks in the Democrat's base wondering what the hell they were thinking supporting Reid, Pelosi, and Obama if the last 4 years were the best they can do.

That kind of reaction from your base means you're screwed unless the other side runs something truly terrifying to motivate turnout. Bachmann and Palin would strongly motivate the DNC base and alienate the moderates, leading to an Obama win. Romney and Pawlenty probably wouldn't motivate the DNC base, but they also won't motivate the GOP base either, meaning those races come down the moderates. Perry would probably carry the Moderates and strongly motivate the GOP base.

But even with that, a lot of anger by the DNC base is probably going to get directed down ticket. I could see some incumbents being shown the door by their own base.

I strongly suspect that the Tea Party is going to be the driving force behind every Congressional and State level election, as they're just more motivated after their many wins in the House. But at the top to the ticket I think they'll do more harm than good.

 

[kwc57]

Depends on who the GOP run. Bachmann or Palin for example all but guarantees an Obama victory and could easily by a landslide. However, Perry or Mitt, or even Pawlenty could beat Obama as things are now. Perry is probably the only of the three that could pull off a landslide win though.

Even if Obama wins though, I see it as a lonely victory party. I doubt the Democrats pick up a single House seat after this Debt Ceiling showdown and I could easily see them losing Senate Seats.... or even losing control of the Senate. There's a lot of really pissed of folks in the Democrat's base wondering what the hell they were thinking supporting Reid, Pelosi, and Obama if the last 4 years were the best they can do.

That kind of reaction from your base means you're screwed unless the other side runs something truly terrifying to motivate turnout. Bachmann and Palin would strongly motivate the DNC base and alienate the moderates, leading to an Obama win. Romney and Pawlenty probably wouldn't motivate the DNC base, but they also won't motivate the GOP base either, meaning those races come down the moderates. Perry would probably carry the Moderates and strongly motivate the GOP base.

But even with that, a lot of anger by the DNC base is probably going to get directed down ticket. I could see some incumbents being shown the door by their own base.

I strongly suspect that the Tea Party is going to be the driving force behind every Congressional and State level election, as they're just more motivated after their many wins in the House. But at the top to the ticket I think they'll do more harm than good.

I agree with your analysis and hope you're right. Funny thing is, I know some liberals who think that Reid, Pelosi and Obama came out of this deal smelling like a rose and it spells doom for the conservative side. I'd expect them to be a little bit more realistic until I realize that they actually believe that Reid, Pelosi and Obama are good for the country.

 

[Zander]

Obama will most likely lose in 2012 and lose badly. It's pretty simple. We live in a center right nation and we are moving further to the right on fiscal issues. So here is what we have:

41% of voters self identify as "conservative"- they will vote for the Republican candidate regardless of who it is.
-
21% self identify as brain dead, oops, I mean "Liberal" - they will vote for Obama - if they can scrounge up the bus fair, are not incarcerated, not dead, hungover, or plain discouraged.
-
The rest are moderates/independents. Obama will need to win around 80% of moderates to win reelection and fulfill his goal of creating a European style welfare state.

According to Gallup’s weekly average approval ratings for the president (which are published every Monday), only 37 percent of self-described Independents said during the week of July 25-31 that they approved of the job Obama was doing as president--an all-time low for this group.

He's got his work cut out for him.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Obama got the centrists he needed last time, and if we run a far right candidate (Palin, Bachmann, etc), he will get even more in 2012 than he did in 2008. Perry can beat him, Romney can beat him, Pawlenty can't.

Both Christie and Rubio are wisely holding out for 2016.

 

[oreo]

We can start with the false crisis on extending the debt ceiling and tying spending cuts (budget process) and trying to get a constitutional amendment (Congress and the States)tied to the debt vote.

What was the result? Economic panic, stock market crash, potential credit derating, tying up Congress while there are more important economic concerns

Yes, the debt ceiling limit jumped up and suddenly caught us all by surprise! How in the world could that have happened? Damn those sneaky Tea Partiers for hiding the issue until the last minute.

Once again, the simplistic economic views of the Tea Party is making matters worse. Cutting spending now will cost jobs, the uncertainty about our legislative process and ability to function is causing panic around the globe.
The market is crashing because the Tea Party has disrupted the ability of Congress to resolve issues

The Stock Market is crashing because investors are looking at the ECONOMIC data coming in and nothing else. The data--is showing that unemployment is UP again across this nation--and that the GDP over the last few years has been revised to show lower growth than what anyone had anticipated.

Geez--you liberals are total dimwits!

 

[code1211]

Obama will most likely lose in 2012 and lose badly. It's pretty simple. We live in a center right nation and we are moving further to the right on fiscal issues. So here is what we have:

41% of voters self identify as "conservative"- they will vote for the Republican candidate regardless of who it is.
-
21% self identify as brain dead, oops, I mean "Liberal" - they will vote for Obama - if they can scrounge up the bus fair, are not incarcerated, not dead, hungover, or plain discouraged.
-
The rest are moderates/independents. Obama will need to win around 80% of moderates to win reelection and fulfill his goal of creating a European style welfare state.

According to Gallup’s weekly average approval ratings for the president (which are published every Monday), only 37 percent of self-described Independents said during the week of July 25-31 that they approved of the job Obama was doing as president--an all-time low for this group.

He's got his work cut out for him.

Being dead does not stop people from voting Democrat.

 

[Sarah G]

HaHa The right wingnuts are beginning to believe their own rhetoric,,

 

[JakeStarkey]

Then business had better renew the purchasing power of the middle class, Oreo.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

I agree with your analysis and hope you're right. Funny thing is, I know some liberals who think that Reid, Pelosi and Obama came out of this deal smelling like a rose and it spells doom for the conservative side. I'd expect them to be a little bit more realistic until I realize that they actually believe that Reid, Pelosi and Obama are good for the country.

Reid is probably hated more on the Left than on the Right. He's seen as being the guy that single handedly blew the 60 seat Senate. And I've seen a lot of the folks in the Left turn on Obama.

I voted for him, but am unlikely to do so again if the GOP give me a reasonable candidate. The man may be the weakest leader I've seen in my life. Worse, he seems intent to double down on Bush's worst policies without the vision or competence to actually pull them off.

At this point a Palin or Bachmann candidacy is the only thing that could make me pull the lever for Obama. I suspect I'm not alone on this.

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

I agree with your analysis and hope you're right. Funny thing is, I know some liberals who think that Reid, Pelosi and Obama came out of this deal smelling like a rose and it spells doom for the conservative side. I'd expect them to be a little bit more realistic until I realize that they actually believe that Reid, Pelosi and Obama are good for the country.

Reid is probably hated more on the Left than on the Right. He's seen as being the guy that single handedly blew the 60 seat Senate. And I've seen a lot of the folks in the Left turn on Obama.

I voted for him, but am unlikely to do so again if the GOP give me a reasonable candidate. The man may be the weakest leader I've seen in my life. Worse, he seems intent to double down on Bush's worst policies without the vision or competence to actually pull them off.

At this point a Palin or Bachmann candidacy is the only thing that could make me pull the lever for Obama. I suspect I'm not alone on this.

Well that's pretty scary that you would even consider voting Obama. Shit, I'd vote for most anyone over Obama. Matter of fact, I can't think of one person that could possibly be worse.

 

[HenryBHough]

Pool leaves out the most interesting possibility:

Narrow win for an Independent. OK, not likely. But it certainly would change things.

Probably the fastest impeachment in history as neither archaic party could help but fall all over themselves in hope their "replacement" might somehow squeak in. Especially if an Independent VP, not previously affiliated with any party, were in office.

OK, so lots of people play fantasy football which, by comparison, is b-o-r-i-n-g!

 

[gautama]

Obama will most likely lose in 2012 and lose badly. It's pretty simple. We live in a center right nation and we are moving further to the right on fiscal issues. So here is what we have:

41% of voters self identify as "conservative"- they will vote for the Republican candidate regardless of who it is.
-
21% self identify as brain dead, oops, I mean "Liberal" - they will vote for Obama - if they can scrounge up the bus fair, are not incarcerated, not dead, hungover, or plain discouraged.
-
The rest are moderates/independents. Obama will need to win around 80% of moderates to win reelection and fulfill his goal of creating a European style welfare state.

According to Gallup’s weekly average approval ratings for the president (which are published every Monday), only 37 percent of self-described Independents said during the week of July 25-31 that they approved of the job Obama was doing as president--an all-time low for this group.

He's got his work cut out for him.

Being dead does not stop people from voting Democrat.

This is a sad irrefutable fact proven to be the case in every election......and obfuscated effectively by the MENDACIOUS DEMS with their ever present "smoke & mirrors" techniques.

That number may go down what with the discrediting of The MONUMENTAL MARXIST, RACIST, PROTECTOR OF MUSLIMS & ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS, FRAUD, Obami Salaami's Employer, ACORN the now discredited and FBI Indicted in ~ 15 States CRIMINAL ENTERPRISE.....where Obummer and his pal The UNREPENTANT, HOMICIDAL, MANIACAL COMMIE/TERRORIST buddy Bill Ayers (from whose home Obummer kicked off his Senatorial Career) were colleagues. With Obami Salaami being the "COMMUNITY ORGANIZER" a common synonym for RABBLE ROUSER !!!

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

I agree with your analysis and hope you're right. Funny thing is, I know some liberals who think that Reid, Pelosi and Obama came out of this deal smelling like a rose and it spells doom for the conservative side. I'd expect them to be a little bit more realistic until I realize that they actually believe that Reid, Pelosi and Obama are good for the country.

Reid is probably hated more on the Left than on the Right. He's seen as being the guy that single handedly blew the 60 seat Senate. And I've seen a lot of the folks in the Left turn on Obama.

I voted for him, but am unlikely to do so again if the GOP give me a reasonable candidate. The man may be the weakest leader I've seen in my life. Worse, he seems intent to double down on Bush's worst policies without the vision or competence to actually pull them off.

At this point a Palin or Bachmann candidacy is the only thing that could make me pull the lever for Obama. I suspect I'm not alone on this.

Cudos to you for being completely honest with how you feel without any bias. Respect to you

I would still pull the R or I lever. Cant see it being any worse

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

I agree with your analysis and hope you're right. Funny thing is, I know some liberals who think that Reid, Pelosi and Obama came out of this deal smelling like a rose and it spells doom for the conservative side. I'd expect them to be a little bit more realistic until I realize that they actually believe that Reid, Pelosi and Obama are good for the country.

Reid is probably hated more on the Left than on the Right. He's seen as being the guy that single handedly blew the 60 seat Senate. And I've seen a lot of the folks in the Left turn on Obama.

I voted for him, but am unlikely to do so again if the GOP give me a reasonable candidate. The man may be the weakest leader I've seen in my life. Worse, he seems intent to double down on Bush's worst policies without the vision or competence to actually pull them off.

At this point a Palin or Bachmann candidacy is the only thing that could make me pull the lever for Obama. I suspect I'm not alone on this.

Well that's pretty scary that you would even consider voting Obama. Shit, I'd vote for most anyone over Obama. Matter of fact, I can't think of one person that could possibly be worse.

Why would you critisize someone who appears to be on the left when he is displaying an open mind. Thats the problem with alot of our party, invite him in I say.

 

[gautama]

I agree with your analysis and hope you're right. Funny thing is, I know some liberals who think that Reid, Pelosi and Obama came out of this deal smelling like a rose and it spells doom for the conservative side. I'd expect them to be a little bit more realistic until I realize that they actually believe that Reid, Pelosi and Obama are good for the country.

Reid is probably hated more on the Left than on the Right. He's seen as being the guy that single handedly blew the 60 seat Senate. And I've seen a lot of the folks in the Left turn on Obama.

I voted for him, but am unlikely to do so again if the GOP give me a reasonable candidate. The man may be the weakest leader I've seen in my life. Worse, he seems intent to double down on Bush's worst policies without the vision or competence to actually pull them off.

At this point a Palin or Bachmann candidacy is the only thing that could make me pull the lever for Obama. I suspect I'm not alone on this.

For all intents and purposes, you are alone in this as far as rational people are concerned.

ANYONE except LUCIFER (or his Political Alter egos such as Hitler, Stalin, etc.,) would be preferable to the MONUMENTAL MARXIST, RACIST, PROTECTOR OF MUSLIMS & ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS, FRAUD, OBUMMER !!!

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

If Obama eases up on his tax and regulate agenda I think it could be close. I just don't see him doing that.

Granted he claims that he "negotiates and compromises" with republicans he can't stop complaining about it along the way. Constant news on tv with him crying for public support only irritates the masses. Kinda like when your watching your favorite show and breaking weather from 100 miles away always seems important enough to break in.

Honestly I just don't see "ANY" signs of moderation from him.

Then there is a really shitty economy that isn't gonna rebound for him to take credit for. And let's not forget Dodd/frank and ocare and his repeated desire to enforce wealth redistribution through taxes. Calls for civility one day then calling opponents terrorists the next. (i know, Biden but its all the same to the public)

Personally I believe Obama is done and if he's elected again I will lose faith in the publics ability to think rationally.

Tax?

What taxes?

President Obama has fucking CUT taxes.

Obamacare hidden taxes....

Starting in 2013, the bill adds an additional 0.9% to the 2.9% Medicare tax for singles who earn more than $200,000 and couples making more than $250,000.

For first time, the bill also applies Medicare’s 2.9% payroll tax rate to investment income, including dividends, interest income and capital gains. Added to the 0.9% payroll surcharge, that means a 3.8-percentage point tax hike on “the rich.”

Oh, and these new taxes aren’t indexed for inflation, so many middle-class families will soon be considered rich and pay the surcharge as their incomes rise past $250,000 due to tax-bracket creep … Taxpayer cost over 10 years: $210 billion.

Also starting in 2013 is a 2.3% excise tax on medical device manufacturers and importers. That’s estimated to raise $20 billion.

Already underway this year is the new annual fee on “branded” drug makers and importers, which will raise $27 billion.

Another $15.2 billion will come from raising the floor on allowable medical deductions to 10% of adjusted gross income from 7.5%.

Starting in 2018, the bill imposes a whopping 40% “excise tax” on high-cost health insurance plans. Though it only applies to two years in the 2010-2019 window of ObamaCare’s original budget score, this tax would still raise $32 billion—and much more in future years.

And don’t forget a new annual fee on health insurance providers starting in 2014 and estimated to raise $60 billion. This tax, like many others on this list, will be passed along to consumers in higher health-care costs.


These TAXES along with others in the bill total nearly 700 billion dollars. Sorry it took me so long to make you look uninformed....

 

[uscitizen]

Depends on who the Republican's choose, really.

Unless the Obama really finds some way to screw the pooch like Carter did.

Carter did so very badly that Reagan was able to beat him handily. Reagan, who was seen as a senile has been 8 months before.

And was as well senile right after his presidency.
But not while in office?

what can I say? the right loves crazy people.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Depends on who the Republican's choose, really.

Unless the Obama really finds some way to screw the pooch like Carter did.

Carter did so very badly that Reagan was able to beat him handily. Reagan, who was seen as a senile has been 8 months before.

And was as well senile right after his presidency.
But not while in office?

what can I say? the right loves crazy people.

Your like a Jack-N-The-Box. We just never know when your gonna pop out with another stupid random comment.

 

[bripat9643]

And was as well senile right after his presidency.
But not while in office?

what can I say? the right loves crazy people.

You can't admit you're an imbecile and then shut the fuck up.