Zogby: Obama up by 5

[Red Dawn]

If polls were reliable predictors, we would see a lot more consistency between them. I come from a state that has always voted Democrat. For the past few years we have been purple, this year I have seen everything from Strong Obama to Leaning Obama to Tossup.

I am pretty skeptical of the polling process especially when you try to tie it to a campaign strategy and measure the movement in single percentage points. Your math is strange by the way.

Polls are 90% reliable within the margin of error.

Virtually all the mainstream polls on the eve of the election are 90% predictive, of the final margin of victory plus or minus within the margin of error.

This is basic statistics.

I don't understand why republicans so often say polling is voodoo. It is what it is. If done correctly by professionals, they are 90% accurate within the margin of error.

 

[Red Dawn]

Cause they only like polls when they can try to ram them up the butts of the left. Otherwise, truthiness makes them cranky.

But I'd say McCain being up by 4 in Ohio 2 weeks ago and narrowly holding on to 1 point is pretty big. And Obama being up by 4 on the Florida seesaw is big too. Could it change? Yep. But it isn't looking good for the Bushbots.

Right, polls are only predictive of trends. Things could change, there could be an october surprise.

But as of now, McCain is going down, Palin looks like a dummy who's favorability ratings have cratered, and it looks like Grandpa knows he's losing on the issues....

 

[The Paperboy]

If the election were held today Obama would win. Period.

Unless there is a HUGE surprise Obama will win if everything remains status quo from here on out.

However if we start seeing a tightening up of the polls over the next few weeks as undecideds start making up there minds McCain could still put it off.

McCain needs to hit Obama hard on taxes, government spending and Fannie Mae.

McCain needs to lay out his economic plan of tax cuts, spending freeze, earmark reform and an all of the above energy plan.

 

[jillian]

If the election were held today Obama would win. Period.

Unless there is a HUGE surprise Obama will win if everything remains status quo from here on out.

However if we start seeing a tightening up of the polls over the next few weeks as undecideds start making up there minds McCain could still put it off.

McCain needs to hit Obama hard on taxes, government spending and Fannie Mae.

McCain needs to lay out his economic plan of tax cuts, spending freeze, earmark reform and an all of the above energy plan.

Tax cuts for whom? Corporations? Spending freezes on what? Things that matter to people while Haliburton continues to be enriched?

The problem is that McCain has nothing to say that Bush hasn't done and which had disasterous results.

It's a quandry for you.

 

[Larkinn]

If the election were held today Obama would win. Period.

Unless there is a HUGE surprise Obama will win if everything remains status quo from here on out.

However if we start seeing a tightening up of the polls over the next few weeks as undecideds start making up there minds McCain could still put it off.

McCain needs to hit Obama hard on taxes, government spending and Fannie Mae.

McCain needs to lay out his economic plan of tax cuts, spending freeze, earmark reform and an all of the above energy plan.

Wow...if even you realize that Obama would win today, your side must be desperate.

As for the undecideds, many polls have Obama near or at 50%. That means that even if 100% of undecideds break for McCain (an almost impossible likelihood), he would still likely lose.

Without an october surprise, I'd say Obama has this one in the bag.

 

[Chris]

It's going to be a blue election day.

Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily

 

[Isolde]

The only real correlation I am seeing is when Obama's poll numbers go up, the DOW goes down.

Put that in yur leftist blunt and smoke it.

 

[Larkinn]

The only real correlation I am seeing is when Obama's poll numbers go up, the DOW goes down.

Put that in yur leftist blunt and smoke it.

Of course they do. Thats because when the DOW goes down, people freak out about admitting a self-admitted "don't know much about the economy" buffoon into the white house.

 

[Isolde]

Of course they do. Thats because when the DOW goes down, people freak out about admitting a self-admitted "don't know much about the economy" buffoon into the white house.

And the prospect of ushering in a non-accomplished do-nothing empty-suiter scares the beejeebers out of them.