. It is my opinion that the use of this barbarous weapon at Hiroshima and Nagasaki was of no material assistance in our war against Japan. The Japanese were already defeated and ready to surrender because of the effective sea blockade and the successful bombing with conventional weapons.-Admiral William D. Leahy( Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff during World War II)
Admiral William D. Leahy
This is predicated upon the continuance of the blockade and fire bombing campaign. Those who espouse this theory conclude that Japan would have been forced to surrender as early as November of 1945. In the interim, it is also estimated that 800,000 civilians in China would have died and 400,000 in Japan would have died... both from direct casualties of war and from indirect impact, such as starvation. About 150,000 died in the 2 atomic bomb attacks.
The Leahy prediction is doubtful as Japan's very culture dicated against surrender. At Iwo Jima, a Japanese force of 22,000 resulted in a grand total of 216 who were captured alive... most of these were alive only because of battle wounds which prevented them from committing suicide. The remainder were killed or committed suicide. At Okinawa, a Japanese force of 120,000 resulted in a grand total of 7,500 captured alive.. and this is the largest percentage of Japanese surredered soldiers in WWII. .. additionally, an estimated 150,000 civilians were killed, many of them by suicide. At Okinawa, the first large scale use of the Kamakazi suicide attacks were employed. Japan could NOT accept surrender...
This is demonstrated by the dliberations of the Japanese Cabinet, which resisted surrender even after the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki... It took the unprecedented intervention of Hirohito himself to force Japan to surrender. Evem then, the decision was resisted, as a military coup was organized to prevent the surrender in the evening hours of the day before Hirohito was to deliver a recorded announcement of the decision to the Japanese people... and that coup probably would have succeded but for the the intervention of an American bombing mission which flew over Tokyo on its way to bomb oil refineries. This caused a blackout which prevent the coup from locating the Hirohito recording and the coup collapsed. This amazing story is the subject of a very good History Channel documentary entitled "The Last Mission"
Four days AFTER the second atomic bomb was dropped on Nagasaki; American airmen are flying the last and longest bombing mission of the war. In Tokyo, a fanatical group of Japanese officers stage a daring coup d'etat in an effort to prolong the war. As the rebels take over Japan's Imperial Palace, and with it - Emperor Hirohito; radio operator Jim Smith and the men of the 315th Bomb Wing are facing their own dangers in the sky above Japan. In a development not anticipated by generals or world leaders - the Last Mission and the coup d'etat converge, helping to bring an end to the most destructive war the world has ever known.
The Last Mission (TV 2003) - IMDb
The atomic bomb provided an excuse for Japan to surrender and still save face. In their eyes, it was not their soldiers or their people who had failed, they had been overcome by a scientific super weapon and it was not a disgrace to surrender under those circumstances.
The fact is, even under Leahy's optimistic appraisal, more than 1,000,000 people were saved because the atomic bombs were dropped.