and the long term, more than a year, capital gains tax is at 15% now yet possibly will double and go back to 30% soon.
The taxes on your investment dollars will DOUBLE with a change in the capital gains tax structure:
1. Will that affect how much $ you invest in America?
2. Will that cause you NOT to put any of your $ as a capital investment?
3. Will the rise in capital gains taxes affect how much $ is invested in America?
4. Will the rise in capital gains taxes SLOW capital investment?
5. How many jobs will be lost with the slow down in investment capital?
1&2 None, zero, zip, nada. It may make me think more so about avoiding taxes, however.
3&4 From 15% to 30%, probably a bit. From 15% to 50%, probably a lot. The relationships aren't linear.
5. Some, but not a lot. If you are looking at offshoring, taxes aren't your primary cost. If you are looking at investing domestically because of the inherent advantages of America, your competition is the western world, not the emerging markets. Thus, your competition is western Europe, Canada, Japan, etc. And America's tax regime is very competitive with those nations.
But I'm not a rich guy living in Manhattan or California. I might behave differently if I were.
In fact, being a Canadian, I may one day leave the US for the Caymans or some other tax haven if the coming fiscal issues aren't resolved.