Yeah, let's play a game

[Zavulon]

We won't launch nukes first. If Russia does, the world and Russia get hurt.

Of course you will, if you see an opportunity to avoid retaliation or if alternative scenario is even worse.

MAD means what it says, or it wouldn't have worked for 80 years.

It worked because there were safeties and there were rules to follow, to avoid extremely provocative behaviour. Now, almost all safeties are removed and you are doing extremely provoking things. And it leads us into nuclear war.

If Russians think we are all Nazis then they are brainwashed idiots. We are not Nazis.

It all depends on definitions. And, of course, not all Americans are Nazies. But some of them, like you, definitely are.

Human rights are different than loyalty to your country.
We all say "I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America and to the Republic for which it stands, one nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all."

But if there is no "liberty and justice" for some people, those people have God-given right to rebel against discrimination and tyranny.

No, but the MIT people can model it.

https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/the-nuclear-fallout-maps-that-revealed-a-contaminated-planet/

The Nuclear Fallout Maps That Revealed a Contaminated Planet​

So what? Scientists can find traces of old nuclear burst. Actually, they can find traces of old farts of whales or something. It means nothing in the terms of humanity survival.

14 days tops, 3-days minimum.

How long would it take for radiation to clear after a nuclear war?

For the survivors of a nuclear war, this lingering radiation hazard could represent a grave threat for as long as 1 to 5 years after the attack. Predictions

www.calendar-canada.ca

As always, it depends on risks of staying in the shelter and leaving it. If you stay in the shelter too long, it might have another bad consequences. After three days, you can leave shelter and the zone of destruction. In two weeks, you can more or less safely return home (after examination, of course).

Not happening. Russia has no control outside its borders.

Of course we have. We are a global power, and our sphere of influence is as large as the range of our ICBMs. I mean, it's all the globe.
And NATO threat will be eliminated, one way (by peaceful building of the new system of safety in Europe) or another (elimination of the USA, direct or indirect).

 

[kyzr]

Of course you will, if you see an opportunity to avoid retaliation or if alternative scenario is even worse.

Please provide a link to your graph. I can't find it.
The only polls I found lean very heavily against the US using nukes.

MAD worked because there were safeties and there were rules to follow, to avoid extremely provocative behaviour. Now, almost all safeties are removed and you are doing extremely provoking things. And it leads us into nuclear war.

Provocative things like helping Ukraine stop a Russian invasion?
Or, letting NATO expand to include all countries that want to join to protect them from Russia?
Or, enforcing sanctions against Russia's "Ghost Fleet" to end the war in Ukraine sooner?
Or, telling Russia that NATO's borders are where they are, and are not moving back to 1997?
Or, telling Russia's allies like Cuba, Iran, Venezuela, Syria, India, or China, the US has new stipulations to follow?
Did I miss any provocations?

It all depends on definitions. And, of course, not all Americans are Nazis. But some of them, like you, definitely are.

We disagree on what a Nazi is. But they did have cool uniforms...

But if there is no "liberty and justice" for some people, those people have God-given right to rebel against discrimination and tyranny.

Justice is what the court system is for. Never use violence. Only criminals use violence. Criminals go to prison.

Of course we have influence. We are a global power, and our sphere of influence is as large as the range of our ICBMs. I mean, it's all the globe. And NATO threat will be eliminated, one way (by peaceful building of the new system of safety in Europe) or another (elimination of the USA, direct or indirect).

...or the most probable outcome, the economic collapse of Russia due to the war in Ukraine...

The Ukraine War Could Mean the Russian Economy Collapses

Putin’s fight against inflation is bankrupting Rostec. Record-high interest rates and war spending threaten a total collapse of Russia's defense industry.

www.19fortyfive.com

The Ukraine War Could Mean the Russian Economy Collapses​

 

[AZrailwhale]

You keep forgetting about Global Fallout.

Lets just say we disagree about the aftermath of a major nuclear war. I don't want humanity and civilization to be brought to the edge of extinction.

You make your models they make their models. A nuclear war is not worth the risk. No one agrees on the science.

NukeSim - Interactive Nuclear Explosion Simulator

Educational nuclear explosion simulator with scientifically accurate effects modeling

www.nukesim.com

Easy decision, launch the nukes.

Russian propaganda can say anything they want, it doesn't mean that Nazis exist.

Here in America we all have rights, but we all pledge loyalty to America.

Not necessarily, it means death and destruction first or second.

Not the global fallout.

We have many shelters to ride out a nuclear war, but living underground for years until the Earth becomes livable is not winning.

NATO can't roll back, Russia needs to stop being so demanding.

We didn't invade any of Russia's neighbors, that is Russian propaganda.

Zavulon always ignores the corruption proven to exist in Russian society. The supplies in the shelters that he trumpets about either never were put into place or sold off by corrupt officials. The people allowed into the shelters would simply starve to death.

 

[BackAgain]

I love the conclusion reached by the computer.

“The only way to win is not to play.”

 

[kyzr]

Zavulon always ignores the corruption proven to exist in Russian society. The supplies in the shelters that he trumpets about either never were put into place or sold off by corrupt officials. The people allowed into the shelters would simply starve to death.

Yep. He keeps spouting the party line like he's one of the guaranteed survivors.

 

[Zavulon]

Please provide a link to your graph. I can't find it.

Are you banned in Google?

https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/42/1/41/12168/Revisiting-Hiroshima-in-Iran-What-Americans-Really

The only polls I found lean very heavily against the US using nukes.

They simply don't want to die. If they believe they can nuke somebody without consequences - they will do it.

Provocative things like helping Ukraine stop a Russian invasion?
Or, letting NATO expand to include all countries that want to join to protect them from Russia?
Or, enforcing sanctions against Russia's "Ghost Fleet" to end the war in Ukraine sooner?
Or, telling Russia that NATO's borders are where they are, and are not moving back to 1997?
Or, telling Russia's allies like Cuba, Iran, Venezuela, Syria, India, or China, the US has new stipulations to follow?
Did I miss any provocations?

Yes. Plus violations and end of weapon control threaties, unprovoked and illegimate acts of aggression, support of Nazi regimes, etc...

We disagree on what a Nazi is. But they did have cool uniforms...
View attachment 1227659

Nazies are not "guys in fancy uniform". Nazies are "guys who hate Russians".

Justice is what the court system is for. Never use violence. Only criminals use violence. Criminals go to prison.

If the court system doesn't work - people have right for rebellion. Like it was with American Revolutionary war or declaration of independence of Texas.

...or the most probable outcome, the economic collapse of Russia due to the war in Ukraine...

Actually, this war is quite profitable.

The Ukraine War Could Mean the Russian Economy Collapses

Putin’s fight against inflation is bankrupting Rostec. Record-high interest rates and war spending threaten a total collapse of Russia's defense industry.

www.19fortyfive.com

The Ukraine War Could Mean the Russian Economy Collapses​

Just a wishful thinking. There are a lot of bad things this war produce, but economic problems is not one of them even potentially.

 

[kyzr]

They simply don't want to die. If they believe they can nuke somebody without consequences - they will do it.

Thanks for that link. Its a good read. Surprising results. Then again, if its a choice between 20,000 US dead or 100,000 Iranian dead, its a simple choice. However, if we look at Iraq and Afghanistan, and consider "lessons learned", that 20,000 US dead should be more like 3,000. Not sure if it would have changed the results at all, almost 50/50 to use nukes.

Yes. Plus violations and end of weapon control treaties, unprovoked and illegitimate acts of aggression, support of Nazi regimes, etc...

We both accuse each other of violating treaties, so with no treaties its simpler.

Nazis are not "guys in fancy uniform". Nazis are "guys who hate Russians".

Not sure Nazis hated Russians as much as considered them inferior, like Jews.

If the court system doesn't work - people have right for rebellion. Like it was with American Revolutionary war or declaration of independence of Texas.

Not the case we're discussing. If any Russian-Americans or Russian-Ukrainians are unhappy with government policies they do have legal recourse. Rebellions end up badly, the government always wins.

Actually, this war is quite profitable.
Just a wishful thinking. There are a lot of bad things this war produce, but economic problems is not one of them even potentially.

Now that the price of oil is spiking that should help the Russian economy, at least temporarily, but wars in general are very expensive. Getting Crimea back was good for Russia, but as this recent article outlines, rough sledding ahead...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marktemnycky/2026/02/04/putin-acknowledges-economic-slowdown-is-russia-entering-a-recession/

Putin Acknowledges Economic Slowdown. Is Russia Entering A Recession?​