Ya Like Polls, Do Ya?

[buckeye45_73]

Britain had a 73% chance of staying in the EU. just sayin...

Actually, it was "too close to call", with a slight edge given to Remain.

I think the people taking bets were getting in the 70s, but not in the polls.

That far out? Nah that the might have been true on election day...alot of things depend....its close....and Hilary is the incumbent......she needs a 4 or 5 point margin on election day to be safe

 

[yiostheoy]

Here's one they will be updating almost daily. Knock yourself out.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Today's forecast:

Hillary Clinton has about a 76% chance of winning the presidency.

...with heavy grumblings expected in early November.

I have come to my own calculation that Hillary's odds are closer to 95% actually.

She only needs one swing state to win.

The Donald needs to sweep them all.

The last person to sweep them all was BHO against Robber Baron Romney.

So if I were The Donald I would not waste too much more money on this.

 

[yiostheoy]

One or two more losers who have watched too many ISIS videos go on a rampage, and one or two more angry blacks shoot down some more cops, and Trump's the winner.

It would take a whole lot more rampages and police ambushes though. A lot more.

 

[yiostheoy]

Once Trump started losing in the polls. Hannity gave the typical republican response to news they dont like. Hannity declared that National Polls dont matter anymore.

National polls do not matter indeed, but the swing states matter.

 

[buckeye45_73]

Today's forecast from fivethirty eight is more conservative: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

True but it's trending Trump....even Mondale and Dukakis were ahead at this time in the campaign.

Nope.

Mondale was never ahead in the polls. He was always ten points or more behind Reagan.

Dukakis peaked in July 1988, and then downhill from there.

Historical polling for U.S. Presidential elections - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

My bad I thought Mondale was leading at one point.....

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

I'll feel better when it's 87%.

And BTW I'm not happy about having to vote for her. Feels like punting.

Then vote for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein. Why keep supporting the same corrupt electoral system when it never changes?

 

[g5000]

Here's one they will be updating almost daily. Knock yourself out.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Today's forecast:

Hillary Clinton has about a 76% chance of winning the presidency.

...with heavy grumblings expected in early November.

I have come to my own calculation that Hillary's odds are closer to 95% actually.

She only needs one swing state to win.

The Donald needs to sweep them all.

The last person to sweep them all was BHO against Robber Baron Romney.

So if I were The Donald I would not waste too much more money on this.

There is one traditionally Democratic state which has swung toward Trump. Another one is leaning Trump.

The vice versa is true for a couple traditionally Republican states.

The electoral math is definitely on Clinton's side, which is why fivethirtyeight and the NYT are giving such high odds to Clinton.

However, I have been saying for years this election will probably have the lowest voter turnout for a Presidential election since 1924. Low voter turnouts favor the Republicans.

Also, as I just said above, I don't think the pollsters are weighting the fear and anger of Trump's supporters enough.

There is no way I would give Clinton a 95% chance of winning. I think Trump's odds are better than anyone in the polling business realizes.

 

[yiostheoy]

I think the pollsters are not weighting the fear and anger of Trump supporters enough.

People with high emotions are more likely to vote. There might be a lot more Hillary supporters, but they feel "meh" about her.

The GOP is really stoking the fear and anger in their rubes. It's their only chance to win.

Every time someone shoots at the cops, they are helping Trump.

You are forgetting the fear and anger for Trump by Hillary fans.

I am looking forward to a great upcoming election with very high turnout on both sides.

Then after Hillary wins the rest of the world will love the USA again, same as right after we elected a part-Negro to be POTUS. Now we will have elected a woman for the firs time.

Hillary may even be given the Nobel Peace Prize same as BHO was.

No sarcasm. Pure honesty.

 

[yiostheoy]

Here's one they will be updating almost daily. Knock yourself out.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Today's forecast:

Hillary Clinton has about a 76% chance of winning the presidency.

...with heavy grumblings expected in early November.

I have come to my own calculation that Hillary's odds are closer to 95% actually.

She only needs one swing state to win.

The Donald needs to sweep them all.

The last person to sweep them all was BHO against Robber Baron Romney.

So if I were The Donald I would not waste too much more money on this.

There is one traditionally Democratic state which has swung toward Trump. Another one is leaning Trump.

The vice versa is true for a couple traditionally Republican states.

The electoral math is definitely on Clinton's side, which is why fivethirtyeight and the NYT are giving such high odds to Clinton.

However, I have been saying for years this election will probably have the lowest voter turnout for a Presidential election since 1924. Low voter turnouts favor the Republicans.

Also, as I just said above, I don't think the pollsters are weighting the fear and anger of Trump's supporters enough.

There is no way I would give Clinton a 95% chance of winning. I think Trump's odds are better than anyone in the polling business realizes.

If the Bernie supporters don't turn out then that could hurt Hillary, sure.

If the Cruz and Rubio and Kasich voters don't turn out, that could hurt The Donald more though.

I believe that by November everybody will be so afraid of both Hillary and The Donald that almost everyone will turn out and vote for somebody.

 

[g5000]

I know some of Trump's flacks are trying to compare him to Reagan, but in actuality this Republican campaign season is almost identical to Nixon's 1968 campaign.

The heavy favorite going into the 1968 GOP primaries was George Romney (Mitt's dad). The second favorite was Nelson Rockefeller.

Nixon wasn't even being taken seriously by anyone.

The Republican Party used the same racial fear tactics as the GOP is using today.

 

[g5000]

I think the pollsters are not weighting the fear and anger of Trump supporters enough.

People with high emotions are more likely to vote. There might be a lot more Hillary supporters, but they feel "meh" about her.

The GOP is really stoking the fear and anger in their rubes. It's their only chance to win.

Every time someone shoots at the cops, they are helping Trump.

You are forgetting the fear and anger for Trump by Hillary fans.

I am looking forward to a great upcoming election with very high turnout on both sides.

Then after Hillary wins the rest of the world will love the USA again, same as right after we elected a part-Negro to be POTUS. Now we will have elected a woman for the firs time.

Hillary may even be given the Nobel Peace Prize same as BHO was.

No sarcasm. Pure honesty.

Hillary is not inspiring. She doesn't get fired up, and her supporters aren't fired up. She's about as exciting and fresh as polyester.

Clinton's supporters are nowhere near as afraid of Trump as Trump's supporters are afraid of their own shadows. It's simply no contest.

 

[nat4900]

....and bear in mind that currently, Clinton is still reeling from the FBI reprimands....as that story fades a bit, her percentile numbers will increase....that, coupled with the current Trump convention fiasco, will seal the deal......

Like Hazel, I'll vote for Clinton while pinching my nose....but in comparison to a Trump administration there's no viable alternative.

 

[yiostheoy]

Then vote for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein. Why keep supporting the same corrupt electoral system when it never changes?

If Forbes and Perot and Nader have proved anything, they have proved that a 3rd Party vote is a wasted vote.

While I appreciate and respect your idealism, I believe that the only way to stop Trump is to vote for Hillary, and the only way to stop Hillary is to vote for Trump.

So this upcoming November election is a classic case of the lesser of two weevils.

And the coattails are even more dangerous.

If the GOP loses the Senate and the House too then all bets are off.

 

[g5000]

....and bear in mind that currently, Clinton is still reeling from the FBI reprimands....as that story fades a bit, her percentile numbers will increase....that, coupled with the current Trump convention fiasco, will seal the deal......

Like Hazel, I'll vote for Clinton while pinching my nose....but in comparison to a Trump administration there's no viable alternative.

You are allowing yourself to be held hostage.

It just doesn't get any dumber than that.

You will never have any power.

 

[yiostheoy]

I think the pollsters are not weighting the fear and anger of Trump supporters enough.

People with high emotions are more likely to vote. There might be a lot more Hillary supporters, but they feel "meh" about her.

The GOP is really stoking the fear and anger in their rubes. It's their only chance to win.

Every time someone shoots at the cops, they are helping Trump.

You are forgetting the fear and anger for Trump by Hillary fans.

I am looking forward to a great upcoming election with very high turnout on both sides.

Then after Hillary wins the rest of the world will love the USA again, same as right after we elected a part-Negro to be POTUS. Now we will have elected a woman for the firs time.

Hillary may even be given the Nobel Peace Prize same as BHO was.

No sarcasm. Pure honesty.

Hillary is not inspiring. She doesn't get fired up, and her supporters aren't fired up. She's about as exciting and fresh as polyester.

Clinton's supporters are nowhere near as afraid of Trump as Trump's supporters are afraid of their own shadows. It's simply no contest.

Hillary does not need to be charismatic in this election.

The more Trump rants, the more presidential he makes Hillary look.

I was discussing this with my sister on the phone this morning.

Trump is really more like a woman in a man's body.

And Hillary is really more like a man in a woman's body.

Trump makes Hillary look good enough to get her elected.

So she does not need to be a rock star, like BHO was.

 

[Papageorgio]

Here's one they will be updating almost daily. Knock yourself out.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Today's forecast:

Hillary Clinton has about a 76% chance of winning the presidency.

...with heavy grumblings expected in early November.

I'll feel better when it's 87%.

And BTW I'm not happy about having to vote for her. Feels like punting.

Yeah, you aren't happy voting for her. LOL!!!!!!!! You are hilarious.

 

[MarcATL]

Here's one they will be updating almost daily. Knock yourself out.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Today's forecast:

Hillary Clinton has about a 76% chance of winning the presidency.

...with heavy grumblings expected in early November.

 

[Papageorgio]

Here's one they will be updating almost daily. Knock yourself out.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Today's forecast:

Hillary Clinton has about a 76% chance of winning the presidency.

...with heavy grumblings expected in early November.

I have come to my own calculation that Hillary's odds are closer to 95% actually.

She only needs one swing state to win.

The Donald needs to sweep them all.

The last person to sweep them all was BHO against Robber Baron Romney.

So if I were The Donald I would not waste too much more money on this.

So Hitlery is our fuhrer for four years. It will be so much fun. Scandal after scandal and nobody will fall in line with her ideas, so she will cry to the public. LOL!! Hitlery will be fun.

 

[MarcATL]

I think the pollsters are not weighting the fear and anger of Trump supporters enough.

People with high emotions are more likely to vote. There might be a lot more Hillary supporters, but they feel "meh" about her.

The GOP is really stoking the fear and anger in their rubes. It's their only chance to win.

Every time someone shoots at the cops, they are helping Trump.

Under normal circumstances, I think you're right. However, we aren't in normal circumstances. The voters have become more generally aware since Obama. Even some rightwingers have said they've woken up.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

While I appreciate and respect your idealism, I believe that the only way to stop Trump is to vote for Hillary, and the only way to stop Hillary is to vote for Trump.

Sure, that philosophy has been working out real well, huh.

There is no such thing as a wasted vote. That is nonsense contrived by people who have a vested interest in keeping the corrupt duopoly in place and the imbeciles they convince it's necessary.