Will the ceasefire hold? a running dialogue of events

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This thread is probably terribly misnamed. I fear rather than 'di' this is be a 'mono'. I do hope others will join in but either way I will post relevant information as I come across it. First, my take on the current situation.

Who fired the first shot I neither know and at this point I do not care. I do not think it matters. Russia and the Ukraine were on a collision course from way back. What matters is the moment and what happens in the moment will determine the state of the Ukraine, Russia, Europe, the U.S., the Middle East, well, you get the idea, for years, decades, to come. The separatists (no, I am not getting into who exactly they are) took control of most of Crimea and are now in control of a large area of Eastern Ukraine. Sanctions against Russia were put in place when hostilities started in Crimea. While harming Russia greatly sanctions have not stopped the separatists from advancing. There is now a ceasefire in place. It does not take affect for another day or so and fighting will only get more intense before the deadline.

What I am about to say will strike some as ludicrous. I am not in the place of God and not judging right or wrong, only what is best for the planet. At the moment of the ceasefire all sides should do exactly as is stated and points in question should be conceded to the separatists/Russia. Also all sanctions should be dropped. The goal of this planet should be to improve as best we can. If conflict continues the separatist will take most if not all of the Ukraine. The amount of conflict required to change that is beyond what can be imagined from the current point of view. Sanctions were put in place to bring about a desired goal, returning Crimea to Ukraine control. That did not happen. There is no goal and hence no point to continuing sanction at this time.

If my demands are not met (kidding) I will say however if these guidelines are not followed millions will suffer for decades needlessly. I beg all parties to adhere to the points of the ceasefire. It is odd that I feel we are in the end times and God has returned to clean up and yet I am trying to save the planet. I wonder if God will not punish me for attempting to mess with his plan. Please, please, please do what is necessary for the greater good. There are two possible futures, one with peace and prosperity and one with burned out cities and shortages of the most basic necessities. Within a week we should be able to tell which it will be. God bless.
 
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This is a map of the areas as agreed to in the ceasefire. Currently fighting is moderately intense in and around Debaltseve. As the status of Debaltseve after the ceasefire is not exactly clear both sides want to have more to show so they can influence the clarification of the status to their favour.

From: BBC News - Ukraine crisis Fierce fighting after Minsk peace deal
 
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This may not influence the ceasefire directly but I think it should be a word of caution to outsiders who think they are backing a national hero under siege.
Poroshenko Reprieves Seen Fleeting as Ukrainians Sour on Leader - Bloomberg Business
Ott Ummelas and Olga Tanas. 10:35 AM EST, February 13, 2015
“Maidan was essentially about dignity and honesty, but this is not how the post-Maidan government is treating its people,” said Balazs Jarabik, a scholar focusing on Ukraine and other eastern European countries at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Poroshenko’s approval rating has fallen below 50 percent for the first time, according to the survey, which Kiev-based R&B Group conducted before Ukraine signed a cease-fire with Russia and a $17.5 billion bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund. The poll, of 1,500 adults outside the contested Donetsk and Luhansk regions from Jan. 26 to Feb. 6, has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

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Forty-six percent of Ukrainians said they’re unhappy with the president, versus 45 percent who said he’s doing well. His approval rating reached a high of 57 percent in September, when the ill-fated first cease-fire deal was struck and only 29 percent disapproved of his actions. Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s approval rating is even lower: 40 percent.

The dissatisfaction may only increase once the Ukrainian public has a chance to digest the details of the truce Poroshenko reached with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of France and Germany, said Igor Bunin, director of the Center for Political Technologies in Moscow.​

I do not know if that last paragraph is a definite. If Ukraine can get out of this with little, if any, additional bloodshed after the ceasefire and has more than generous assistance from the IMF and a grateful EU they should be very happy indeed. It might be selling them a little short that they would not feel this way.
 

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This may not influence the ceasefire directly but I think it should be a word of caution to outsiders who think they are backing a national hero under siege.
Poroshenko Reprieves Seen Fleeting as Ukrainians Sour on Leader - Bloomberg Business
Ott Ummelas and Olga Tanas. 10:35 AM EST, February 13, 2015
“Maidan was essentially about dignity and honesty, but this is not how the post-Maidan government is treating its people,” said Balazs Jarabik, a scholar focusing on Ukraine and other eastern European countries at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Poroshenko’s approval rating has fallen below 50 percent for the first time, according to the survey, which Kiev-based R&B Group conducted before Ukraine signed a cease-fire with Russia and a $17.5 billion bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund. The poll, of 1,500 adults outside the contested Donetsk and Luhansk regions from Jan. 26 to Feb. 6, has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

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Forty-six percent of Ukrainians said they’re unhappy with the president, versus 45 percent who said he’s doing well. His approval rating reached a high of 57 percent in September, when the ill-fated first cease-fire deal was struck and only 29 percent disapproved of his actions. Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s approval rating is even lower: 40 percent.

The dissatisfaction may only increase once the Ukrainian public has a chance to digest the details of the truce Poroshenko reached with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of France and Germany, said Igor Bunin, director of the Center for Political Technologies in Moscow.​

I do not know if that last paragraph is a definite. If Ukraine can get out of this with little, if any, additional bloodshed after the ceasefire and has more than generous assistance from the IMF and a grateful EU they should be very happy indeed. It might be selling them a little short that they would not feel this way.

Doesn't seem like it will 'hold' as it appears never to have started:

BBC News - Ukraine crisis Fierce fighting after Minsk peace deal

13 February 2015Last updated at 11:58 ET

Ukraine crisis: Fierce fighting after Minsk peace deal
13 February 2015 Last updated at 11:58 ET

Intense fighting has been reported in eastern Ukraine, a day after a peace deal was reached in Minsk.

The fiercest battles were over control of the town of Debaltseve, a strategic town in between rebel-held areas.

The group responsible for monitoring the ceasefire, due to start at midnight on Saturday, says there is still "quite serious live fire" in several areas.

European leaders have warned Russia that it faces additional sanctions if the Minsk agreement is not respected.

BBC journalists in Donetsk heard new shelling on Friday morning while Russian TV said Luhansk also came under bombardment overnight.

But Ukraine's army said the most ferocious fighting centred on Debaltseve, a railway junction where rebels have besieged government troops in a last-ditch effort to win the town.

"The enemy continues to build up forces in the main areas of the armed conflict. The most tense situation is near Debaltseve," military spokesman Andriy Lysenko told reporters.

...
 
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This may not influence the ceasefire directly but I think it should be a word of caution to outsiders who think they are backing a national hero under siege.
Poroshenko Reprieves Seen Fleeting as Ukrainians Sour on Leader - Bloomberg Business
Ott Ummelas and Olga Tanas. 10:35 AM EST, February 13, 2015
“Maidan was essentially about dignity and honesty, but this is not how the post-Maidan government is treating its people,” said Balazs Jarabik, a scholar focusing on Ukraine and other eastern European countries at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Poroshenko’s approval rating has fallen below 50 percent for the first time, according to the survey, which Kiev-based R&B Group conducted before Ukraine signed a cease-fire with Russia and a $17.5 billion bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund. The poll, of 1,500 adults outside the contested Donetsk and Luhansk regions from Jan. 26 to Feb. 6, has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Career Risk
Forty-six percent of Ukrainians said they’re unhappy with the president, versus 45 percent who said he’s doing well. His approval rating reached a high of 57 percent in September, when the ill-fated first cease-fire deal was struck and only 29 percent disapproved of his actions. Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s approval rating is even lower: 40 percent.

The dissatisfaction may only increase once the Ukrainian public has a chance to digest the details of the truce Poroshenko reached with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of France and Germany, said Igor Bunin, director of the Center for Political Technologies in Moscow.​

I do not know if that last paragraph is a definite. If Ukraine can get out of this with little, if any, additional bloodshed after the ceasefire and has more than generous assistance from the IMF and a grateful EU they should be very happy indeed. It might be selling them a little short that they would not feel this way.

Doesn't seem like it will 'hold' as it appears never to have started:

BBC News - Ukraine crisis Fierce fighting after Minsk peace deal

13 February 2015Last updated at 11:58 ET

Ukraine crisis: Fierce fighting after Minsk peace deal
13 February 2015 Last updated at 11:58 ET

Intense fighting has been reported in eastern Ukraine, a day after a peace deal was reached in Minsk.

The fiercest battles were over control of the town of Debaltseve, a strategic town in between rebel-held areas.

The group responsible for monitoring the ceasefire, due to start at midnight on Saturday, says there is still "quite serious live fire" in several areas.

European leaders have warned Russia that it faces additional sanctions if the Minsk agreement is not respected.

BBC journalists in Donetsk heard new shelling on Friday morning while Russian TV said Luhansk also came under bombardment overnight.

But Ukraine's army said the most ferocious fighting centred on Debaltseve, a railway junction where rebels have besieged government troops in a last-ditch effort to win the town.

"The enemy continues to build up forces in the main areas of the armed conflict. The most tense situation is near Debaltseve," military spokesman Andriy Lysenko told reporters.

...
This is one aspect of this ceasefire which is usually not the case, the agreement was signed but the ceasefire has not gone into effect. I worry about the impression that current fighting has somehow broken the agreement. All conflict is to end this Sunday at midnight, 5:00 p.m. Sunday, EST. There will probably be dozens of causalities between now and the deadline but it is practically nothing to what will happen if the ceasefire fails.
 
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This may not influence the ceasefire directly but I think it should be a word of caution to outsiders who think they are backing a national hero under siege.
Poroshenko Reprieves Seen Fleeting as Ukrainians Sour on Leader - Bloomberg Business
Ott Ummelas and Olga Tanas. 10:35 AM EST, February 13, 2015
“Maidan was essentially about dignity and honesty, but this is not how the post-Maidan government is treating its people,” said Balazs Jarabik, a scholar focusing on Ukraine and other eastern European countries at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Poroshenko’s approval rating has fallen below 50 percent for the first time, according to the survey, which Kiev-based R&B Group conducted before Ukraine signed a cease-fire with Russia and a $17.5 billion bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund. The poll, of 1,500 adults outside the contested Donetsk and Luhansk regions from Jan. 26 to Feb. 6, has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Career Risk
Forty-six percent of Ukrainians said they’re unhappy with the president, versus 45 percent who said he’s doing well. His approval rating reached a high of 57 percent in September, when the ill-fated first cease-fire deal was struck and only 29 percent disapproved of his actions. Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s approval rating is even lower: 40 percent.

The dissatisfaction may only increase once the Ukrainian public has a chance to digest the details of the truce Poroshenko reached with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the leaders of France and Germany, said Igor Bunin, director of the Center for Political Technologies in Moscow.​

I do not know if that last paragraph is a definite. If Ukraine can get out of this with little, if any, additional bloodshed after the ceasefire and has more than generous assistance from the IMF and a grateful EU they should be very happy indeed. It might be selling them a little short that they would not feel this way.

Doesn't seem like it will 'hold' as it appears never to have started:

BBC News - Ukraine crisis Fierce fighting after Minsk peace deal

13 February 2015Last updated at 11:58 ET

Ukraine crisis: Fierce fighting after Minsk peace deal
13 February 2015 Last updated at 11:58 ET

Intense fighting has been reported in eastern Ukraine, a day after a peace deal was reached in Minsk.

The fiercest battles were over control of the town of Debaltseve, a strategic town in between rebel-held areas.

The group responsible for monitoring the ceasefire, due to start at midnight on Saturday, says there is still "quite serious live fire" in several areas.

European leaders have warned Russia that it faces additional sanctions if the Minsk agreement is not respected.

BBC journalists in Donetsk heard new shelling on Friday morning while Russian TV said Luhansk also came under bombardment overnight.

But Ukraine's army said the most ferocious fighting centred on Debaltseve, a railway junction where rebels have besieged government troops in a last-ditch effort to win the town.

"The enemy continues to build up forces in the main areas of the armed conflict. The most tense situation is near Debaltseve," military spokesman Andriy Lysenko told reporters.

...
This is one aspect of this ceasefire which is usually not the case, the agreement was signed but the ceasefire has not gone into effect. I worry about the impression that current fighting has somehow broken the agreement. All conflict is to end this Sunday at midnight, 5:00 p.m. Sunday, EST. There will probably be dozens of causalities between now and the deadline but it is practically nothing to what will happen if the ceasefire fails.
Big correction. The midnight being on which side of the day constantly gets me. The start is 0:00 the 15th, which means on Sunday there should be no conflict. Which makes the start of the the ceasefire 5:00 p.m. Saturday, EST.

Terribly sorry. :oops:
 
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The U.S. is pushing really hard for this to fail.
 
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In 2006 a cross border raid on the Lebanon/Israel border initiated airstrikes against Hezbollah targets by the IAF as Hezbollah rockets landed in and around Israeli cities. After these seemed to lack effectiveness Israel sent in the IDF. The Israeli troops made it only a few miles across the Lebanese border before becoming pinned down and Merkava, the supposedly invincible tank, had holes blasted into it. How was it that the motley band of 'terrorists', this was their first significant confrontation, beat the supposedly unbeatable Israeli army? Because this was the seventh time Israel had crossed the border with the IDF to attack targets in Lebanon.

In 2008 Putin claimed there were American personal amongst the Georgian fighters. Putin believed the U.S. was assisting Georgia in fighting Russian troops. Seven years later the scenario is very much the same. The location is the Ukraine and not Georgia but that is no surprise. Putin knows the decision to supply weapons to the Ukraine has been made. He knew it was made seven years ago. And if Russia knows that the U.S. will supplies weapons to the Ukraine Iran and Syria and maybe a couple other countries know it as well. If the U.S. goes ahead with its plan to send weapons into the Ukraine the conflict is going to escalate into a full blown war very quickly. In the 2012 debates Mitt Romney was asked what the greatest threat to the U.S. was. He answered, "Russia." He was wrong that Russia was the greatest threat but it is most likely with whom the next major war will be fought.
 
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Hopefully no one is actually reading this. I really dislike these monologues but, oh well.

NATO's commander, US Air Force General Philip Breedlove, describes Russia's tactics as 'hybrid warfare', "tools we recognize but used in a new and combined way". Putin has analysed every aspect of the West's strategy inside and out, he knows who the players are and what their next three moves will be. He will not be caught unaware. I am not trying to make Putin out to be some super warrior but the West must appreciate what they are up against. The analyse that Putin is some kind of cold war, megalomaniac, set on restoring the old Soviet Union is ridiculous.

edit: youtube: "NATO commander discusses Ukraine crisis | Journal"
 
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Will the ceasefire hold?

No.
I thought I would at least ask. The U.S. is so incredibly off balance. We are going to send weapons into Ukraine thinking what? That things will grind to a halt? Putin does not look at this as a Soviet era war. This is a WW II or the Napoleonic invasion. Russia has that scenario in the ready. NATO has an Air Force general with no combat experience as its commander. We just got a new Secretary of Defense who is a weapons procurement guy if that does not exclaim loud and clear what the U.S. thinks of war I do not know what does. I really hope Europe does not get dragged into this. If NATO does get involved however bombing of airbases outside of Ukraine is a high possibility. And who the heck thought it would be a good idea to start a war with Russia in the middle of February? By the time the ground turns from frozen like a rock to boot sucking mud Russia will own the whole of Ukraine. And if the front does get pushed back into Russia know the resolve to the Russian fighter is legendary.
 
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Here is another concept floating around that does no one any good. It is the idea that because the U.S. was threatening arming the Ukrainian army that Putin came to the negotiating table. No, it was because Merkel foresaw exactly what is about to happen and tried to prevent it. If the U.S. thinks they are going to get a loving welcome when they escalate a war in Europe's backyard they are as foolish as they are unwise.
 
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What exactly does this mean?
Poroshenko Ukraine world at crossroads between ceasefire further escalation
16:04 14.02.2015
He noted that Ukraine counted on "the victory of common sense over the sick imperial ambitions." "We expect that the one who gave once the go-ahead to the beginning of hostilities in Donbas, will finally come to senses and order to stop shooting starting at midnight," Poroshenko said.​
 
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This is interesting. The location is the same but the quoted text is slightly different. I wonder if this is two different statements or if someone got some of the words mixed up.
Ukraine Fighting Flares Hours Before Cease-Fire Set to Begin - Bloomberg Business
by Daryna KrasnolutskaKateryna ChoursinaHenry Meyer
“We are dealing with an insidious and cynical enemy,” Poroshenko said outside Kiev Saturday. “We are still hoping that common sense will prevail over unhealthy imperial ambitions and expect those who once gave the command to start fighting will finally order the shooting to stop at midnight.”​
 
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I hope someone clarifies this situation in the next hour or so.
Ukraine rebels warn Kiev over truce around battleground town Zee News
Last Updated: Sunday, February 15, 2015 - 02:07
Kiev: Pro-Russian rebels on Saturday warned that any attempts by Kiev forces to move out of the battleground town Debaltseve after the start of a ceasefire would be considered an aggression.​
 
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New York Times' article title is a lie. Wow, that was unexpected. The truth is stated in my previous post.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/15/w...maments-near-embattled-ukraine-town.html?_r=1
Rebel Leader Repudiates Cease-Fire in a Key Town Held by Ukraine

Repudiate - Definition and More from the Free Merriam-Webster Dictionary
Repudiate
: to refuse to accept or support (something) : to reject (something or someone)
: to say or show that (something) is not true
I should not just blame the New York Times. I should also blame Andrew E. Kramer who: a) does not know the truth, b) does not know english, or c) is a lier. hhmmmm, this one is going to be tough. :doubt:
 
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Video of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's very brief news conference stating he is ready to do his part in adhering to the ceasefire agreement.
BBC News - Ukraine conflict President Poroshenko news conference

edit: Sorry. That seems to be a live stream of the BBC so the video is not on the page. I will post a new link when I can find one.
 
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Some violations supposedly reported. 4:30 in the morning there so daylight will be breaking soon. Fox News trying to play the reports of violations for all its worth, and then some. I linked a recent article from CNN.
Ukrainian ceasefire goes into effect - CNN.com
By Ralph Ellis, Laura Smith-Spark and Frederik Pleitgen, CNN
Updated 2352 GMT (0752 HKT) February 14, 2015
 

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