Derideo_Te
Je Suis Charlie
- Mar 2, 2013
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Exit polls showed who voted, with about a 30% share to each the liberals and conservatives, with moderates getting40% approximately.
But the polls of regular Americans shows that the breakdown is this: 45% conservative, 35% moderate, and only 20% liberal.
The GOP loses when they fail to energize their base and less than half of conservatives even bother to vote as they wait and hope for another Reagan.
Care to share those polls?
Its been a while since I have looked, but a quick couple of Googles yields the following:
conservatives 40%
Moderates 35%
liberals 21%
Conservatives Remain the Largest Ideological Group in U.S.
exit polls:
Moderates 45%
Conservatives 35%
Liberals 22%
It?s a Mod, Mod, Mod, Mod World: Most Voters are Moderates in Presidential Elections
Conservatives win if they energize their base, while liberals win if conservatives fail.
Thank you for those links. The data in the 2nd link is a mirror of the first up to 2008. The question I have with the Gallup link is whether that data has been adjusted following the exposure of the right wing bias that Gallup has now admitted?
Your allegation that "Conservatives win if they energize their base, while liberals win if conservatives fail" does not fit within the established results of elections. The GOP has traditionally done better in off year cycles when there is always a lower turnout. It tends to suffer when there is a higher voter turnout.
That would argue that moderates tend to be biased towards the left which is not the case. By definition moderates are swing voters and will choose based on what they perceive as being best for themselves and the nation irrespective of party ideology.
In the last 3 election cycles the conservative base has been extremely motivated and energized and yet it has lost 2 out of 3 of those elections.
The changing voter demographics and the internet are going to play an even bigger role in the next 2 elections and while I agree that the conservative base will be just as energized as they were in the prior 3 elections they might have a harder time achieving the gains that they want. The reason for this is because those Gallup polls are not a true reflection of the changing demographics in my opinion. If you recall the GOP relied heavily on those polls while the Dems were using a more accurate polling model in 2012.