Gallup figures typically provide an indication of what the government will report at the end of the month. The U.S. unemployment rate, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 9.0% in mid-February, Gallup said in its mid-month unemployment survey, released on February 17. The mid-month reading normally reflects what the U.S. government reports for the entire month, and is up from 8.3% in mid-January. Gallup said the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would likely report a rise in the official unemployment rate in early March, when it publishes its February figures.
Gallups mid-month figures are not seasonally adjusted, and so may not predict the official unemployment rate precisely. However, because Gallup and BLS both conduct their unemployment surveys at the same time in the middle of the month Gallups early figures can provide a barometer of where the official rate is likely headed. Gallups mid-month unemployment reading, based on the 30 days ending Feb. 15, serves as a preliminary estimate of the U.S. government report, and suggests the Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely report on the first Friday of March that its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased in February, Gallup said.
The survey also found that underemployment those unemployed and those working part-time because full-time jobs are unavailable rose to 19 percent, up from the 18.7 percent Gallup found in January. Gallup said its report reflected a continuing trend of weakness in U.S. labor markets, marking a sharp deterioration in job market conditions. Regardless of what the government reports, Gallups unemployment and underemployment measures show a sharp deterioration in job market conditions since mid-January.
That decline was consistent with an economy struggling with weak growth and rising energy prices, Gallup said, making it premature to think that the economy would not be a major factor in Novembers presidential elections. Further, it suggests that it is premature to assume the condition of the economy will not remain a major issue for Americans both financially and politically in 2012.
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