When Job Losses Turn, The Recession Is Over

[mascale]

CNBC reported early Friday a.m., June 5, PDT, that the end of the last recession was pegged at the month that job losses started to diminish, rather than increase. So now that has happened three months in a row: Then likely the recession has abated and a recovery is under way.

The usual increase of job-seekers, pushing up the jobless survery percentage rate: Appears to have started. College grads get more weeks of party-hearty, after all!

In an economy where the Head (CEO) In Charge is alleged to admire the Reagan Trajectory--youth minorities likely don't get to do that at all. They are to be killed, like Reagan-Bush did.

The Clinton Adminstration came on board with a $500.00 per child tax credit. That helped back then to throw even more people off the federal income tax rolls. GOP-Without-A-Clue immediately tried a stimulus with more tax cuts: Just as soon as Bush II, Term I, took office. Seems that the Clintons had balanced the budget, and the stock market came tumbling down.

Minority and Minority Youth Unemployment had come down in the Clinton Administration--leading pundits to wonder about the Father's ancestry.

The Bush I, Term I, Two Tax cuts actually didn't work, however. Likely the Clinton family at least looked presidential to the Republicans.

Now the Democrats have a refundable tax credit on the books--cutting withholding for now, and re-priming the pump at the start of 2010. People unaffected by the tax cuts will now have extra, equal-amount, spending money. There is even still more stimulus money to spend. Even the Federal Reserve had begun monetary priming--when it was still thought that Senator Clinton would be heir apparent--To the Bush Family.

So much, in fact, has changed in so little time: That anyone has to wonder how come the social and political pundits have failed to point out that Bush II, Terms I and II, may actually have to be regarded the first African-American Presidency in the United States: All things considered.

Obama seems relatively black, and far more empathic, of a singular life experience--clearly far more statesman-like by comparison.

George Bush clearly had a lot yet to learn.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Actually, Her Majesty's Government does know a thing or two about these hereditary matters!)

 

[editec]

The recovery is on its way?

Happy to hear it.

 

[sealybobo]

The recovery is on its way?

Happy to hear it.

Oh yes. Things are still bad, but we now see the light at the end of the tunnel.

But that doesn't mean we should stop pushing for reforms.

We need single payer.

We need that pro union bill passed.

And we need to do something about jobs going overseas.

My brother is in Brazil. He said their unions are corrupt and so is their government.

My hope and feeling is that corporations are going to find out that the grass isn't necessarily greener in other countries.

And you have to ship the shit back. That's a huge expense. Maybe its more cost effective to make some things here.

Now if we can take healthcare off the corporations plates, they can really compete on an even playing field.

 

[code1211]

The recovery is on its way?

Happy to hear it.

Oh yes. Things are still bad, but we now see the light at the end of the tunnel.

But that doesn't mean we should stop pushing for reforms.

We need single payer.

We need that pro union bill passed.

And we need to do something about jobs going overseas.

My brother is in Brazil. He said their unions are corrupt and so is their government.

My hope and feeling is that corporations are going to find out that the grass isn't necessarily greener in other countries.

And you have to ship the shit back. That's a huge expense. Maybe its more cost effective to make some things here.

Now if we can take healthcare off the corporations plates, they can really compete on an even playing field.

Amazing. Pontiacs are built off shore and shipped home and the Asian Auto makers employ more Americans than the American Auto makers. Solution? Make the American unions stronger so the American Auto makers are even less competitive than they have been. Brilliant. How can Toyota build a superior product at a lower cost using American warkers than the American Auto makers?

Let's see... What's a 5 letter word for failure that starts with a U.?

The Unions in Brazil are corrupt? Who could have called that one. Must be Teamsters. Could be UAW. Couldn't be Retail Clerks 'cause they don't have the vision or planning to go international. I suppose the good news is that Unions are going off shore in some form. If they make the rest of the world as uncompetitive as they have made us, we'll have a chance.

Single payer Health Care? The CBO numbers say that we need to use all of the premiums that are currently being paid AND another trillion to make this work. How is spending an extra trillion dollars a savings? One of the many dirty little secrets is that a government program is not a cost saving move. Anything that the government touches gets more expensive.

How many products on this planet get cheaper when there is one provider? That is, how many products become cheaper when there is a monopoly providing it?

 

[mascale]

Unions are better regarded as organized groups of labor, claiming rights to shares in the wealth they create: By means of negotiated contracts, under law. The Reagan Trajectory, for example, was all about the law. Black teenagers currently have an official unemployment rate at between 30% and 40% of their group. There is an example of what happens to non-union labor, and in an Obama Administration. There is actually no shown need for Teen Blacks with children on Welfare, except that the Obama Administration is now in charge.

George Bush II, knew about the law. The Yale University economists had told him that the way to avoid a recession was to cut taxes. As anyone would say, and of a Bush Administration: How little did they known, and when did they fail to know it?

Obama understood about "The Reagan Trajectory," and it shows.

Single-Payer health insurance is actually an employer cost-reduction. Instead of a few paying more, then everyone is technically the payer, with volume access pricing even involved. Medical Schools can actually provide more M.D.'s, rather than fewer. There is stronger likihood of M. D.'s actually becoming employed.

When the adults are in the unions, the problem of the CBA-people is how the wages get raised. The West Wing put a kind of equal-dollar amount Cost-of-Living Adjustment on the books. There is a refundable tax credit now available for people with no federal income tax liability.

A price rise for one is a price rise for all. The employers don't have to pay this COLA. There is a "stimulus" without a private sector cost. The federal government effectively puts a noose around its neck, and wraps the other end around the penis--for a kind of autoerotic "high," or "jolly," or "stimulus," or however they say it.

That is actually called, in history, "subsidized Coolie labor." Price has nothing to do with it. Politics has everything to do with it.

The Liberals also put the raised and indexed standard deduction, and personal exemptions, into the 1986 Tax Reform. The Conservatives saw a tax cut. Everyone was on board. There was a big noose tied around everyone's neck. The other end was securely wrapped around all the people with the penises. An autoerotic explosion of people with no federal income tax liability was the outcome: Stimulus, after stimulus, after stimulus. People even started to notice that it was even kind of messy.

Liberal government is not without its flaws: Especially with the Conservatives on-board. The real idea is to put the COLA into the pay raises: So that the increase of income is continuous. That is an outcome of an organization, creating rights to a portion of the wealth, using a Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Unions in Argentina put fixed percentage COLA's into their CBA pay raises. 90% of labor was CBA covered. Within months and years the unions were gone, and the economy was in ruins. That left union participation rates at less than 25,% which is not unlike the United States Now. There is more than one way to tie a noose around the neck, and the other around the penis: And then start hanging around. The unions had the CBA's with COLA's, but the COLA computing was wrong.

The problem of the created recent collapse of credit, in the United States, had to do completely with computing. Union and non-union organizations had actually failed, universally, at computing. Eliminating employer costs is actually one advantage for consumers. Employers know how to cut prices when in fact they spot the prospect of volume sales. The second advantage for consumers is that employers can even raise incomes as a result.

It can even happen here.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(When anyone finally does stop to think about it: How can a Latina female, ever be regarded, as being somehow capable: Of ever making a decision at all? People know a thing or two about long lines, of these people, failing to understand the important role that abortions now play in America! There are decisions that rich White Males can make!)

 

[Mad Scientist]

CNBC reported early Friday a.m., June 5, PDT, that the end of the last recession was pegged at the month that job losses started to diminish, rather than increase. So now that has happened three months in a row: Then likely the recession has abated and a recovery is under way.

Job loss may be slowing, but that doesn't mean an economic recovery is underway.

Yes, the economy could be bottoming out so layoffs will slow, but I'll believe a recovery is underway when there is job creation. You know, growth. And from what I've been reading most experts believe the "growth", when it happens, will be minimal (0.5-1.0%) for a few years at least.

 

[Neubarth]

In one report today they said unemployment went up by about 700,000

In another they said it went up by 345,000.

Which lie are we supposed to believe?

 

[editec]

The amount of increasing unemployment has gone down.

It's rather like saying that you're beginning to win the fight because, while your opponent is still totally kicking your ass, he's getting tired and he's now only hitting you ten times per minute instead of twenty times per minute.

MAD Scientist is right here.

The recession is techically over when the GDP goes into positive numbers.

But from an American patriotic standpoint, the recession is over when the rate of new hires exceeds the rate of recent fires.

 

[Neubarth]

The amount of increasing unemployment has gone down.

It's rather like saying that you're beginning to win the fight because, while your opponent is still totally kicking your ass, he's getting tired and he's now only hitting you ten times per minute instead of twenty times per minute.

MAD Scientist is right here.

The recession is techically over when the GDP goes into positive numbers.

But from an American patriotic standpoint, the recession is over when the rate of new hires exceeds the rate of recent fires.

As previously posted, the deception of the Obama administration is outrageous. That 345,000 unemployment number was fabricated from thin air.

The distortion in the Non Farm Payroll Report. Wide Swings!

In March it was reported as 663,000 but was quietly revised upward to 699,000.

In Jan it was reported as 590,000 but was quietly revised upward to 655,000.

In Dec it was reported as 524,000 but was quietly revised upward to 577,000

In Nov it was reported as 533,000 but was quietly revised upward to 584,000

In Sep it was reported as 240,000 but was quietly revised upward to 320,000

Economic Calendar: Financial Calendars - Yahoo! Finance

So now in May it is reported as 345,000. Now, why do I doubt the accuracy of the numbers? What will it be quietly revised upward to?

Now, if you do a little quick math, you will see that the numbers do not jive with the continuing unemployment numbers. Continuing unemployment is 9.4% from a continuing unemployment number of 8.9% in April. That is a .5% increase in continuing unemployment or, an increase of approximately 650,000. Somehow, the numbers do not jive. Here are the April numbers Economic Calendar: Financial Calendars - Yahoo! Finance

If you estimate the non farm labor pool as approximately 130,000,000 people out of a population of 310,000,000 then .5 is equal to 650,000.

So, what is it? 345,000 or 650,000? Why, if they are making up numbers for the sheeple don't they try to make them half way believable? It is so obvious to see that the numbers are wrong.

 

[Mad Scientist]

As previously posted, the deception of the Obama administration is outrageous. That 345,000 unemployment number was fabricated from thin air.
So, what is it? 345,000 or 650,000? Why, if they are making up numbers for the sheeple don't they try to make them half way believable? It is so obvious to see that the numbers are wrong.

But your not taking into account all the jobs that Obama has already saved. Why, there must be millions of em'.
And just think about all those "Green Jobs" just around the economic bend.

Get with it Neubarth, Happy Days are Here Again!

 

[Neubarth]

As previously posted, the deception of the Obama administration is outrageous. That 345,000 unemployment number was fabricated from thin air.
So, what is it? 345,000 or 650,000? Why, if they are making up numbers for the sheeple don't they try to make them half way believable? It is so obvious to see that the numbers are wrong.

But your not taking into account all the jobs that Obama has already saved. Why, there must be millions of em'.
And just think about all those "Green Jobs" just around the economic bend.

Get with it Neubarth, Happy Days are Here Again!

600,000 jobs a week are lost. Don't know of any saved jobs, just the ever constant reality of lost jobs. It is getting very ugly out there as we fall deeper and deeper into the Greatest Depression in world history.

 

[Ame®icano]

As previously posted, the deception of the Obama administration is outrageous. That 345,000 unemployment number was fabricated from thin air.
So, what is it? 345,000 or 650,000? Why, if they are making up numbers for the sheeple don't they try to make them half way believable? It is so obvious to see that the numbers are wrong.

But your not taking into account all the jobs that Obama has already saved. Why, there must be millions of em'.
And just think about all those "Green Jobs" just around the economic bend.

Get with it Neubarth, Happy Days are Here Again!

I am not falling for a "saved jobs" bullshit.

It's the same like saying that 200K people die in America every month, but hey, administration saved about 310 millions from certain death. Yeah right.

 

[justabubba]

The recovery is on its way?

Happy to hear it.

Oh yes. Things are still bad, but we now see the light at the end of the tunnel.

But that doesn't mean we should stop pushing for reforms.

We need single payer.

We need that pro union bill passed.

And we need to do something about jobs going overseas.

My brother is in Brazil. He said their unions are corrupt and so is their government.

My hope and feeling is that corporations are going to find out that the grass isn't necessarily greener in other countries.

And you have to ship the shit back. That's a huge expense. Maybe its more cost effective to make some things here.

Now if we can take healthcare off the corporations plates, they can really compete on an even playing field.

this is a rare time that i hope to be proven wrong
but those tea leaves you are (mis)reading are only saying that the bottom of the recession may be approaching
that in no way indicates that the recovery has begun
and one indication of a turn-around will be when employers begin increasing the overtime of existing employees. they will do that before adding employees
but this thread is proof that the emphasis on 'good news' is working ... may a self-fulfilling prophecy result
in Obama's name we pray
amen

 

[auditor0007]

Let's look at a few letters. V, U, W or L? I said L a long time ago. That's my story, and I'm stickin to it.

 

[Neubarth]

Right now there is no indication of any hint of a recovery. The actual number of lost jobs in May was close to a MILLION, not 345,000. The lies of the Obama administration are outrageous! This has to be the most corrupt administration in American history. Worse than that of Ulysses Simpson Grant. It is time to impeach this president. The man has no ethics whatsoever.

 

[Terral]

Hi Neubarth:

In one report today they said unemployment went up by about 700,000

In another they said it went up by 345,000.

Which lie are we supposed to believe?

A quick look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that,

Employment Situation Summary for May 2009

"The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent."

The lying Govt and their lying Media puppets are trying to focus attention on the "Nonfarm monthly decline" number (345,000) in order to forward the false notion that things are getting better for the US Economy. The 'Real Unemployment Rate' is now higher than 16 percent (story) and anybody saying that things are getting better is out of his cotton picking mind . . . merely uninformed . . . or has an Open Borders Lobby . . .

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQz48YlVbks"]. . . New World Order Agenda . . .[/ame]

Tell these people that things are getting better . . .

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cneC2POL298&feature=related"]Tent Cities: Homeless Villages On The Rise[/ame]

My thread on Surviving The Coming Economic Collapse is here . . .

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SaNwSZm3Uo&feature=fvw"]Economic Collapse Update: June 2009[/ame]

People like . . .

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1zLpT5bLV8"] . . . Eve . . .[/ame]

. . . have been homeless for four+ years and more Americans are added to that number every day . . .

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wN2jE-C8t20&feature=related"]Tent City Update! May 2009[/ame]

Some of you may find this little video explaining Why the Economic Collapse is Unavoidable to be very interesting:

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GukmDO89KI&feature=related[/ame]

GL,

Terral

 

[mascale]

The payroll data are different from the labor force survey data. Idiots know this. They are on TV.

Employers went into a panic mode when credit slowed, and orders slowed, and the stock market crashed. Laid off workers got more optimistic as the stock market rose, the stimulus was passed, and the pace of layoffs started to slow. The first data are the payroll data, the second data are the labor force survey data.

They are different.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(In time gone by, people understood a thing or two about human differences, if anyone looks at the histories!)

 

[editec]

I don't see a whole lotta jobs out there, folks.

 

[Annie]

Instapundit » Blog Archive » BUSTING THE ECONOMIC BODY COUNT GAME: Watching Fox News Sunday, I caught a panel on which Obama e…

JUNE 7, 2009
BUSTING THE ECONOMIC BODY COUNT GAME:

Watching Fox News Sunday, I caught a panel on which Obama economic advisor Austin Goolsbee conceded that the administration had previously predicted unemployment would top out at around 8%, that it was now up to 9.4%, and that double-digit unemployment was a distinct possibility in the near future. Goolsbee didn’t resort to the administrations’s blather about “saving or creating jobs,” but he did repeat its fustian about how last month’s loss of 345,000 jobs (resulting in a half percentage point jump in the jobless rate) is somehow good news because it beat predictions (I don’t recall him sayind whose) of even more dire loss numbers. It made me wonder why, if those predictions either existed or were serious, the Obama administration would have previously predicted that unemployment would top out at 8%?

I’m waiting for the press comparisons with McNamara’s Vietnam number-juggling. . . . .

Posted at by Glenn Reynolds at 2:08 pm

 

[mascale]

Keep in mind that the Obama Advisers are an educated people! They know things are (fu. . . .) up! That's about "Change That You Can Believe In! That's why they keep the money. They've earned this money in our incentive structure(?)!

The old Soviet Bloc was run by an educated people! It was a worker's paradise, for upper income workers only. It was famous for shortages for everyone else, and Dasha's full of goodies for the uppermost income workers: Called "The Gods," and "The Goddesses," or "The Dictators," or "Whatever!"

Argentina was run by an educated people! It was officially Catholic, and even now still is. Enough said.

Japan was run by an educated people! It even had an emperor, and even now still does. Enough said(?)!

Indonesia was run by an educated people. It was even Indonesian, and even now still is! Enough said.

So as for the Bush Administration: That goes without saying, and often. These were an Ivy League . . .Enough said.

There are seven milllion teachers even now in the USA! It shows!

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!
(Apparently all fields have to be included!)