What if each state's congressional delegation matched its party registration?

[Eman623]

I asked ChatGPT to calculate what the Dem/Rep breakdown in the House of Reps would be if each state's delegation matched its party affiliation. For registered independents, assume a 50-50 split between D and R.

Note that Texas is an oddball here. They don't require people to declare a party so the AI engine used modeling data that gives a 54-46 split to Dems. I'm not sure that's accurate seeing as the state went by 15 points for Trump last November, but let's go with that anyway.

According to ChatGPT, the house would have 230 Reps and 205 Dems.

The current breakdown is 219 Reps and 212 Dems with 4 vacancies.

Below is a spreadsheet with the breakdown. Interestingly, every state with more than one House seat would have at least one from each party. This would in practice look a lot like proportional voting, but if we still used voting districts, my guess is there would be a lot of pretty competitive ones. Fewer districts would be "safe", which is why politicians would never allow this.

The main takeaway seems to be that, on a national level, Dems are benefitting more from gerrymandering than Republicans. Or maybe they're just better at it.

 

[TroglocratsRdumb]

I think that a lot conservative voters do not register under a party.
I have never voted in a primary race.
I think that there are a lot of people like me.

 

[Eman623]

I think that a lot conservative voters do not register under a party.

I told the AI engine to assume unaffiliated voters are split 50-50 between Dem and Rep. But if what you say is true and they actually break say 40-60 D to R, then the GOP would have an even bigger House lead.

I have never voted in a primary race.

Depends on the state. In CA we often include propositions on primary ballots to help spur folks to the polls.

I think that there are a lot of people like me.

 

[dblack]

That would only reinforce identity politics and the partisan mentality.