CDZ What Happened to the PIGS?

[william the wie]

Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain were the expected exits from the EU instead Brexit happened. Anyone got a clue as to why?

 

[DarkFury]

Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain were the expected exits from the EU instead Brexit happened. Anyone got a clue as to why?

Greece will not go because the new EU will not take them.
The base for the new EU will be
Britain
Russia
Austria

Second level Eu base will be
Germany
Greece

All of Europe will divide by economics and need BOTH eastern and western.

 

[william the wie]

I doubr it will work out that way. One consequence of Brexit that is being debated now is lowering the UK corporate tax rate to 15% to set off a tax inversion stampede out of the EU. Who woulda thunk it? This is getting stranger by the minute.

 

[Picaro]

I doubr it will work out that way. One consequence of Brexit that is being debated now is lowering the UK corporate tax rate to 15% to set off a tax inversion stampede out of the EU. Who woulda thunk it? This is getting stranger by the minute.

the EU tried to do too much; they even had regulations controlling the exact size and shape of bananas, weirdness about toasters, etc.,etc. What's amazing is how long anybody stayed in it in the first place. They should have stuck with the original plan, a currency and trade union, and left the idiotic bureaucracy at a minimum.

The Brits will do just fine, at least comparatively; I see the economic slump not getting any better for a while, and see a mini-boom in gold by November, a people finally figure out the central banks and Wall Street types around the world don't have the slightest clue as to what they're doing and can't fix the current stagnation. All they have is the same ridiculous fantasy that cutting wages and looting the poor yet again solves all problems.

 

[william the wie]

What's so mini about the gold boom? Up 75% so far this year for gold producer., That's good enough for me.

 

[Picaro]

What's so mini about the gold boom? Up 75% so far this year for gold producer., That's good enough for me.

I think the baseline price will move up; I don't think the bubble prices are long term, but the former baseline was around 1,100/oz. retail price on spot markets, and I think that will move up to between 1,400 and 1,500 retail for a while, with speculators drive up and down around that baseline for at least a year or two, barring a big war or other.

 

[william the wie]

What's so mini about the gold boom? Up 75% so far this year for gold producer., That's good enough for me.

I think the baseline price will move up; I don't think the bubble prices are long term, but the former baseline was around 1,100/oz. retail price on spot markets, and I think that will move up to between 1,400 and 1,500 retail for a while, with speculators drive up and down around that baseline for at least a year or two, barring a big war or other.

The main cost of mining is energy and energy prices are set to tank further:

drilling costs/bbl is still declining.

Exploration costs/bbl is declining too.

What is not declining much at all are debt service costs

Energy is in a downward step function as default proved reserves are sold to pay off creditors. We could see $10/bbl.world prices with the Russia/KSA/Iran/China taking off.

For lurkers the South China Sea takeover by China is intended to supply all of China's energy needs internally at lower than world prices. Since this involves shallow water drilling this involves very low cost drilling and sea water works fine for fracking shale layers as well. End of lesson..

 

[Picaro]

The drilling and discovery costs of oil were cheap when the price was near $100 a bl. Even in Venezuela's swamps, with costs comparable to Brent Sea costs, they never exceeded a few dollar a bl. to drill and raise, and exploration costs have been fractions of a cent per bl. equivalent. With exploration, the costs are largely upfront costs, and it takes a while to amortize them over the life of a pool or field. Most of the cost is determined by political factors and what the industry thinks it can get away with, not scarcity. When a country such as Russia starts squeezing its neighbors, the reaction is to close ranks and cut prices to the bone, limiting Russia's ability to indulge its expansionism and imperialism. In the 1970's, an 'energy shortage' was invented to squeeze them the same way, the difference being their own oil industry was crap and they were big importers of refined petroleum products. The 'Oil shock' was a big factor in the collapse of the Soviet Union, along with the Viet Nam war and the global food shortage in that era. Now they're trying to boom China and other labor racketeering 'economies' back, but it's not looking good for them, so that plan may blow up. I don't see $10/bl., and I do see China's aggressions in the South China Sea eventually leading to shooting and a further decline in their currency and exports, as other countries move to disentangle their economies from it. they were built up by outsiders, and they will be taken apart by outsiders.

 

[william the wie]

Admittedly the biggest cost is getting the crude to market but the exploration and production costs of expanding the field to the point where transport is effectively all pipeline and boat is the real killer. For example even though a gas pipeline to the north slope would theoretically make sense the question is whether there is an intercept between potential supply and probable demand for that much more gas and that cannot yet be determined.

 

[yiostheoy]

Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain were the expected exits from the EU instead Brexit happened. Anyone got a clue as to why?

Not only that but almost everybody expected the USA to be the next empire to break up after the USSR over deficits and bankruptcy.

But lo and behold it is the UK that is going to break up next.