What happened to Russia's vaunted winter offensive?

[toomuchtime_]

Troops from the Russian so-called Cossack Detachment are refusing to take part in offensive operations due to Russian forces’ heavy losses near Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast.

Quote from the General Staff: "Troops from the so-called volunteer Cossack Detachment, attached to the 155th Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet, are refusing to continue to take part in offensive operations due to the failure of the offensive and significant personnel losses near Vuhledar."

Background:

• Soldiers from Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces and the 72nd Separate Mechanised Brigade destroyed pieces of Russian equipment and captured two Russian servicemen near Vuhledar on 23 February.
• On 15 February, Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence reported that Russia’s losses were the largest since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
• The Institute for the Study of War said on 14 February that the deployment of conscripted servicemen by Russian troops is unlikely to create sufficient offensive potential for a large-scale and rapid mechanised offensive.

Russian troops refuse to mount an offensive due to heavy losses near Vuhledar

Troops from the Russian so-called Cossack Detachment are refusing to take part in offensive operations due to Russian forces' heavy losses near Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast. Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook Quote from the General Staff: "Troops from the so-called...

www.yahoo.com

Is this we haven't seen Russia's vaunted winter offensive with 300,000 to 500,000 new Russia troops sweeping down on the Ukrainians?

 

[Litwin]

Troops from the Russian so-called Cossack Detachment are refusing to take part in offensive operations due to Russian forces’ heavy losses near Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast.

Quote from the General Staff: "Troops from the so-called volunteer Cossack Detachment, attached to the 155th Marine Brigade of the Russian Pacific Fleet, are refusing to continue to take part in offensive operations due to the failure of the offensive and significant personnel losses near Vuhledar."

Background:

• Soldiers from Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces and the 72nd Separate Mechanised Brigade destroyed pieces of Russian equipment and captured two Russian servicemen near Vuhledar on 23 February.
• On 15 February, Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence reported that Russia’s losses were the largest since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
• The Institute for the Study of War said on 14 February that the deployment of conscripted servicemen by Russian troops is unlikely to create sufficient offensive potential for a large-scale and rapid mechanised offensive.

Russian troops refuse to mount an offensive due to heavy losses near Vuhledar

Troops from the Russian so-called Cossack Detachment are refusing to take part in offensive operations due to Russian forces' heavy losses near Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast. Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook Quote from the General Staff: "Troops from the so-called...

www.yahoo.com

Is this we haven't seen Russia's vaunted winter offensive with 300,000 to 500,000 new Russia troops sweeping down on the Ukrainians?

GIRKIN :
Igor Girkin says MOSCOW needs a Chinese "lend-lease" if it’s to continue fighting in Ukraine "with any level of success"

 

[johngaltshrugged]

A Ukrainian source on MSM Pravda.
IDK or care what's going on there but at least I know you never trust Mockingbird media to tell us the real truth about it

 

[toomuchtime_]

A Ukrainian source on MSM Pravda.
IDK or care what's going on there but at least I know you never trust Mockingbird media to tell us the real truth about it

Ok, if you don't trust Ukrainians, why do you think we haven't seen this Russian winter offensive we heard so much about?

 

[ESay]

The main question is whether it should have happened in reality. It was mostly Ritter's adepts who were pushing this idea. Overall, winter months in this part of the world aren't appropriate time for any big offensive.

 

[johngaltshrugged]

Ok, if you don't trust Ukrainians, why do you think we haven't seen this Russian winter offensive we heard so much about?

You'll have to remind me when the Russians said they were going to go on a winter offensive?

My point was that what the Ukrainian source was saying about Russian forces refusing orders was subordination at least & maybe worse than that.
As described it was most likely punishable by death in a combat situation

 

[para bellum]

Is this we haven't seen Russia's vaunted winter offensive with 300,000 to 500,000 new Russia troops sweeping down on the Ukrainians?

Well, this is the winter offensive. It began the beginning of February. The Russians attacked in 7 or 8 places along the line of contact. They've made some incremental gains along the Kreminna-Svatove line, and north and south around Bakhmut. All of it at high cost.

The assaults on Bakhmut itself, the carnage is hard to describe.

The 155th/40th NI lost half a mechanized battalion's worth of armor in a single engagement in Vuhledar. Overall they lost over 100 vehicles. They tried again a day or so ago, but same result. The roads are mined on each side, and the convoy advances to a pre-targeted spot and the UA arty goes to work. If they leave the roads the mines get them.

Russia has a manpower advantage, but the mobilized are not very good for assaults. They do fill out all the defensive positions, so the RF is not at risk of thinning the lines like happened in Kharkiv.

Surovikin was more interested in filling out the defenses east of the Dnipro, and wanted to take the time to properly reconstitute the depleted Russian formations. Gerasimov is sending the mobilized right into combat, with new equipment but no training.

The UA is content for now to let the Russians keep coming. "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making mistakes." Russian casualties are about 3.5x what they were last summer and Russian shelling of Ukrainian positions is down by 1/2-2/3 compared to June-July 2022.

The UA is building reserves and has 3 new Bde's formed up, but they want to hold off until they have a couple of LEO mech. Bn's before they go on the offensive.

Ammunition supplies are going to be the single biggest factor in the spring. Artillery is still king in this war, and Ukraine is currently operating at 50/50 between WarPac and NATO artillery calibers. Supply is low on both sides and ramping up production takes time.

The UA has some longer range rocket artillery in the form of GLSDB, (which I wrote a few months ago was coming). These are fired from the HIMARS and M270's and use a 250lb GBU-39 married to the M26 rocket. 150km range.