Well crap, what's a globalal warmer to do...

[HereWeGoAgain]

I thought the "settled science" was that the Earth was warming and eating beef and stopping to drive my minivan can save the world from total destruction.

Raise more meat, make more poo as you may need the methane gas for heat according to that report.

Stockpile twinkies and McDonald's cheeseburgers. Neither rots.

Nasty, I'll stick with rice, beans, whole wheat, dried greens from my yard and canned goods in jars.

Everything else is good but your greens are gonna die in the coming ice age.

Not likely. Greens are cool season crops. I have had turnips, mustard and creasy take a hell of a beating with ice and snow and survive, albeit ratty looking. Throw some plastic or a frost blankets over them and they will chug right along as long as you get them started before it hits. I did the frost blanket thing with rocket (a peppery lettuce that looks like dandelion leaves if you are unfamiliar) and ate it all winter. Now mind you that I am sticking primarily with the twinkies in my prepper box, but it is just a matter of one's willingness to make an effort to feed themselves by their own labor. Now if I only had mustard to eat to survive, I would run naked into the snow bank never to be seen until the ice age is over and some guy stumbles on me in 500 years, especially if I did not have pork fat to cook with it.

Yeah...thats why they are a southern thing....

 

[Manonthestreet]

Good thing frackers unleashed heaps more nat gas to stay warm with......

 

[westwall]

And it looks like 2016 is going to make three record warm years in a row. So, how is that happening with a lower TSI?

Really? Data falsification is the only way that is happening. You can fool the morons with that claim. But anyone with a brain (leaves you out) knows what is happening. What are you going to do when the temps drop through the floor? How are you going to lie that away olfraud?

 

[defcon4]

And it looks like 2016 is going to make three record warm years in a row. So, how is that happening with a lower TSI?

Really? Data falsification is the only way that is happening. You can fool the morons with that claim. But anyone with a brain (leaves you out) knows what is happening. What are you going to do when the temps drop through the floor? How are you going to lie that away olfraud?

It's already happening. Haven't you seen the movie "The day after tomorrow?" Global warming fucked New York City up with a mini ice age.

 

[Old Rocks]

The predictability of solar variability. Although there are different long-term “predictions” of solar activity, they are not predictions in a strict sense. It is more correct to call them “possible scenarios”. Such scenarios are based typically on multiharmonic (or neural network or other) mathematical extrapolations of the existing series. This would work if the time series were stationary (in the sense that a sufficiently long subset of data contains the main statistical features of the entire series). However, the solar activity data sets have been shown to be essentially non-stationary thus making true predictions hardly possible because of an essential stochastic/chaotic component. E.g. with an equal success one can predict the behaviour of the financial market and become rich. The issue is that no one knows when the new Grand Minimum occurs and no one really knows what would happen then. I call such extended minima of suppressed solar activity Grand Minima, since the Maunder Minimum (lasting from 1645 till about 1700 or 1712) is only one of those. Later minima, such as the Dalton Minimum (ca. 1800 AD) and modern (ca. 1900 AD) ones were not really Grand Minima, in neither depth or duration

Indeed, we are certain that there will be a Grand Minimum sooner or later (there were 27 ones during the last 11 millennia, see Fig. 2) but their occurrence is unpredictable. The 27 minima during 11 millennia imply that Grand Minima appear roughly every 400 years, but they are spread very unevenly, with intervals between them being from a hundred years to a few thousand years. No regularity was found in their occurrence (except for the ~200-yr repetition appearing sporadically), but rigorous statistical studies suggest that they occur randomly. Thus, no definite prediction of a future Grand Minimum is possible, but a probabilistic forecast can be made, e.g. Barnard et al., (2011) said: “There is an 8% chance of the Sun falling into a grand minimum during the next 40 years”. This is not a prediction but a probabilistic forecast or also called a possible scenario. Concerning the influence on climate, I think we are unable at the moment to make a realistic assessment to what will be the consequence, since many processes are still poorly understood and modelled.

Biosketch

Prof. Ilya Usoskin works at the University of Oulu (Finland). He is vice-Director of the Finnish National Centre of Excellence in Research on Solar Long-term Variability and Effects (ReSoLVE). He focuses his research on Solar and Solar-terrestrial physics as well as in Cosmic Ray physics. He is a member of numerous scientific commissions and panels, reviewer and member of editorial boards for a number of professional journals, and an organizer of scientific conferences and symposia, including a series of biennial International Symposia in Space Climate. He is an author of more than 200 scientific publications, including 150 peer-review ones, among those a dozen of invited reviews and book chapters.

What will happen during a new Maunder Minimum? « Climate Dialogue

I prefer to read what real scientists have to say. Not frauds on internet message boards.

 

[flacaltenn]

The predictability of solar variability. Although there are different long-term “predictions” of solar activity, they are not predictions in a strict sense. It is more correct to call them “possible scenarios”. Such scenarios are based typically on multiharmonic (or neural network or other) mathematical extrapolations of the existing series. This would work if the time series were stationary (in the sense that a sufficiently long subset of data contains the main statistical features of the entire series). However, the solar activity data sets have been shown to be essentially non-stationary thus making true predictions hardly possible because of an essential stochastic/chaotic component. E.g. with an equal success one can predict the behaviour of the financial market and become rich. The issue is that no one knows when the new Grand Minimum occurs and no one really knows what would happen then. I call such extended minima of suppressed solar activity Grand Minima, since the Maunder Minimum (lasting from 1645 till about 1700 or 1712) is only one of those. Later minima, such as the Dalton Minimum (ca. 1800 AD) and modern (ca. 1900 AD) ones were not really Grand Minima, in neither depth or duration

Indeed, we are certain that there will be a Grand Minimum sooner or later (there were 27 ones during the last 11 millennia, see Fig. 2) but their occurrence is unpredictable. The 27 minima during 11 millennia imply that Grand Minima appear roughly every 400 years, but they are spread very unevenly, with intervals between them being from a hundred years to a few thousand years. No regularity was found in their occurrence (except for the ~200-yr repetition appearing sporadically), but rigorous statistical studies suggest that they occur randomly. Thus, no definite prediction of a future Grand Minimum is possible, but a probabilistic forecast can be made, e.g. Barnard et al., (2011) said: “There is an 8% chance of the Sun falling into a grand minimum during the next 40 years”. This is not a prediction but a probabilistic forecast or also called a possible scenario. Concerning the influence on climate, I think we are unable at the moment to make a realistic assessment to what will be the consequence, since many processes are still poorly understood and modelled.

Biosketch

Prof. Ilya Usoskin works at the University of Oulu (Finland). He is vice-Director of the Finnish National Centre of Excellence in Research on Solar Long-term Variability and Effects (ReSoLVE). He focuses his research on Solar and Solar-terrestrial physics as well as in Cosmic Ray physics. He is a member of numerous scientific commissions and panels, reviewer and member of editorial boards for a number of professional journals, and an organizer of scientific conferences and symposia, including a series of biennial International Symposia in Space Climate. He is an author of more than 200 scientific publications, including 150 peer-review ones, among those a dozen of invited reviews and book chapters.

What will happen during a new Maunder Minimum? « Climate Dialogue

I prefer to read what real scientists have to say. Not frauds on internet message boards.

Prof Usoskin carefully AVOIDED comments on the pattern I showed in my post. It is those PATTERNS that make his "stochastic financial markets" comment seem silly. But then again YOU are silly.. Since your link goes to a page that presents a MUCH BROADER survey of opinions. I think you blew your cover there and CRUISED RIGHT over observations and opinions CONTRARY to your faith..

According to some more skeptical scientists such a small solar influence is counterintuitive. The Little Ice Age, the period roughly from 1350 to 1850, in which winters on the Northern Hemisphere could be severe and glaciers advanced, coincided with the so-called Maunder Minimum, a period of supposedly low solar activity. In their eyes, the sun therefore still is a serious candidate to also explain a substantial part of the warming since pre-industrial times.

Sunspot records since 1600 suggest there has been a considerable increase in solar activity in the 20th century leading to a Grand Solar Maximum or Modern Maximum. However recently these sunspot records have come under increasing scrutiny and newer reconstructions show a much ‘flatter’ sunspot history. This challenges the idea of a Modern Maximum.

The current solar cycle 24 is the lowest sunspot cycle in 100 years and the third in a trend of diminishing sunspot cycles. Solar physicists expect cycle 25 to be even smaller than Cycle 24 and expect the sun to move into a new minimum, comparable with the Dalton or even the Maunder Minimum. Studying such a minimum with modern instruments could potentially answer a lot of the questions surrounding the influence of the sun on our climate.

Not to mention that there is BIG BOLD NOTE at the top of page announcing that "Climate Dialogue" had LOST it's govt funding and as of 1 Jan 2015, would be under new mgt.

So THIS thread is discussing observations 18 MONTHS newer than those comments as far as I can tell. And the last 18 Months have yielded critical info on Cycle 25...