Works on the assumption that the Japanese would have continued to fight, when in fact they were desperately seeking peace terms.
They would continue to fight, that is obvious. And they were not seeking "peace terms", they were seeking an armistice. The two are not the same thing.
No, they were not.
Japan was trying to act like they were winning the war. They literally were trying to dictate a peace agreement that would have had most of the battle lines restored to 1941 levels. In other words, pretend the war had never happened, a hard reset.
But worse for the Allies! Allied powers would have to leave all Japanese soil they occupied, And land that Japan occupied would become demilitarized and under joint Japan-Allied control. That was absolute insanity, and they tried to get several countries to present those terms for them. Sweden, and the Swiss all refused to even consider it once they knew what Japan was proposing. Stalin ordered his Ambassador to stall the Japanese, but said that presenting those terms to the Allies would have been political suicide for him.
Hell, the Japanese Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the Soviet Union both told their own governments they were insane, and should get serious about trying to surrender before it was too late.
To make a comparison, that would be like Germany trying to dictate terms as the Red Army is battling inside Berlin. And yes, early Showa era Japan was when they were more than slightly crazy.
Hirohito didn't have dictatorial power before, during the war or after, so that's just silly.
The fact was, Japan sought a surrender but also sought to keep Hirohito, because he was a RELIGIOUS figure in Shintoism, which most Japanese belonged to. Americans insisted on deposing him.
He never did, that is not how the Japanese Emperors rule.
And no, they wanted an armistice as I described. And no, the Americans never insisted on deposing him. Holy hell, what was demanded was already in their hands by then, the Potsdam Declaration
We call upon the government of Japan to proclaim now the unconditional surrender of all Japanese armed forces, and to provide proper and adequate assurances of their good faith in such action. The alternative for Japan is prompt and utter destruction.
That was the closing line of Potsdam. Nowhere did it even discuss the Emperor. It did not even demand the surrender of "Japan", only of the armed forces.
Actually, the Japanese also reached out through the Swiss.
Which I discussed. And the Swedish, and the Soviets. None of which would even present the terms that Japan wanted. Because they knew they would be rejected, and their standing among the Allied nations would fall.
They actually expected to retain their previously agreed occupation of China, demilitarize the Philippines, Singapore, Dutch Indonesia, and French Indochina. Yet all allied forces would immediately leave Okinawa, Saipan, and all Japanese territory they occupied. That there would be no war crime trials, and not one foreign soldier would set foot on Japan. The Swiss and everybody else knew that was insanity, and would never be accepted.
The hope Japan had was they would come out of the war keeping some of what they had gained, which is to hold on to Korea and Taiwan, and to keep the friendly regimes they had installed in Manchuria and China. Then when the Americans got tired and went home, they would be in a dominant position in Asia after the war.
All this became moot when the USSR entered the war and quickly rolled up their empire on the mainland.
They owned Korea and Taiwan long before the war even began. So that is nonsensical.
And you are basically trying to say exactly what I am. That they wanted to pretend they were winning, and could dictate the terms. That screams that they were not even close to "surrender". And all of the Allied Powers knew that and would have rejected outright any such offer even if Japan found somebody to present it for them.
Except they were, and there was no reason to use them, other than we had them
You just said basically that their idea of "surrender" was a lie, But yes, there was a reason, the Shockley Report.
If the study shows that the behavior of nations in all historical cases comparable to Japan's has in fact been invariably consistent with the behavior of the troops in battle, then it means that the Japanese dead and ineffectives at the time of the defeat will exceed the corresponding number for the Germans. In other words, we shall probably have to kill at least 5 to 10 million Japanese. This might cost us between 1.7 and 4 million casualties including 400,000 to 800,000 killed.
That report sent shockwaves through the upper levels of the US military and Government. Because it took into account the deaths at Saipan and Okinawa, Something previous estimates did not.
Hell, many Japanese did not surrender until the 1970s. Decades after the war ended.
Except again, why did they need to "surrender"? The concept of "unconditional surrender" dragged WWII out longer than it needed to go and gave us 40 years of Cold War. We devastated Germany and Japan and then had to invest billions rebuilding them to keep them as bulwarks against communism.
We insisted on "unconditional surrender". Hirohito keeping his job was a condition.
Because both sides learned the mistake of WWI. That not insisting on a change in the country itself only ensures as you yourself said that they would return even more determined in the future. Funny, you yourself commented on that, you forget already? You do not think that the Allied Powers already knew that?
And no, the demand was never "unconditional surrender". Read the Potsdam Declaration, they made their demands quite clear.
The Japanese Government not only ignored Potsdam (as do you apparently), they said it was outright ignoring it because it was not worth even talking about. But at any time they could have reached out to the Allied Powers directly or through an intermediary to request a clarification.
They were not yet willing to surrender. The fact that even after the first bomb was dropped only a single member of the War Cabinet stated that he was willing to see Japan surrender screams that.