Well this is a funny one
UK (under Tories) has been begging US for a trade deal for over a decade and US has been going no thanks or putting GMO, Clorine Chicken or Hormoned Beef on the table (which is unacceptable to UK public)...
Trump has got himself in such a mess and needs a deal and UK is taking advantage of US weakness to get a deal... Unlike the UK India deal which seem to favour India last week. I expect UK will get all they really wanted in this deal, they have the upper hand on this and Trump needs the optics...
Trade wise including services it is a wash... The whole thing could be totally ignored and tariff were a severe speed bump in the road but things can go back normal....
The devil will be in the detail and the detail is were we will see what is in and out...
There is one big thing to watch out for, the Northern Ireland free trade with Rep. OF Ireland... This will be a big indicator of intent...
Ireland has a lot of Medical Devices which goto US and everywhere in the world, there is no way that manufacturing can be moved in any reasonable time. The Irish have been trying to offload there low tech stuff for over a decade and no country can even produce the low tech. Setting up a line can take over 5 years and huge amount of trail and error... Even the Irish (who have the best pass rates in the world) only pass 60% and throw away 40%... This is a global market and US represents 6% of global, you ain't moving a plant like this for 6%...
Pharma is different... Mainly manufacturing in Pharama is only 4% cost of a drug... But if you take out packaging it could be 1%... Depend in the drug, generics can be done anywhere with relatively little effort but is highly automise (Novartis plant)... The complex stuff like Botox and Ozempic will be manufactured where it is today (too hard to move)...
Funny thing, 80% Botox (which means all of First World Botox) is manufactured in a small town in the west of Ireland (Westport)... They are the experts at making it... Their internal knowledge would be very strong (the little tricks that makes things work), high end manafacteuring has this and it takes years of ingrained knowledge to get it all..
UK (under Tories) has been begging US for a trade deal for over a decade and US has been going no thanks or putting GMO, Clorine Chicken or Hormoned Beef on the table (which is unacceptable to UK public)...
Trump has got himself in such a mess and needs a deal and UK is taking advantage of US weakness to get a deal... Unlike the UK India deal which seem to favour India last week. I expect UK will get all they really wanted in this deal, they have the upper hand on this and Trump needs the optics...
Trade wise including services it is a wash... The whole thing could be totally ignored and tariff were a severe speed bump in the road but things can go back normal....
The devil will be in the detail and the detail is were we will see what is in and out...
There is one big thing to watch out for, the Northern Ireland free trade with Rep. OF Ireland... This will be a big indicator of intent...
Ireland has a lot of Medical Devices which goto US and everywhere in the world, there is no way that manufacturing can be moved in any reasonable time. The Irish have been trying to offload there low tech stuff for over a decade and no country can even produce the low tech. Setting up a line can take over 5 years and huge amount of trail and error... Even the Irish (who have the best pass rates in the world) only pass 60% and throw away 40%... This is a global market and US represents 6% of global, you ain't moving a plant like this for 6%...
Pharma is different... Mainly manufacturing in Pharama is only 4% cost of a drug... But if you take out packaging it could be 1%... Depend in the drug, generics can be done anywhere with relatively little effort but is highly automise (Novartis plant)... The complex stuff like Botox and Ozempic will be manufactured where it is today (too hard to move)...
Funny thing, 80% Botox (which means all of First World Botox) is manufactured in a small town in the west of Ireland (Westport)... They are the experts at making it... Their internal knowledge would be very strong (the little tricks that makes things work), high end manafacteuring has this and it takes years of ingrained knowledge to get it all..