Economics[edit]
The EU spent almost €10 billion through the 1990s.
[125] ITER represents an investment of over twenty billion dollars, and possibly tens of billions more, including
in kind contributions.
[126][127] Under the European Union's
Sixth Framework Programme, nuclear fusion research received €750 million (in addition to ITER funding), compared with €810 million for sustainable energy research,
[128] putting research into fusion power well ahead of that of any single rival technology. The
United States Department of Energy has allocated $US367M–$US671M every year since 2010, peaking in 2020,
[129] with plans to reduce investment to $US425M in its FY2021 Budget Request.
[130] About a quarter of this budget is directed to support ITER.
The size of the investments and time lines results mean that fusion research has almost exclusively been publicly funded. However, in recent years, the promise of commercializing a paradigm-changing
low-carbon energy source has attracted a raft of companies and investors.
[131] Over two dozen start-up companies attracted over one billion dollars from roughly 2000 to 2020, mainly from 2015, and a further three billion in funding and milestone related commitments in 2021,
[132][133] with investors including
Jeff Bezos,
Peter Thiel and
Bill Gates, as well as institutional investors including
Legal & General, and energy companies including
Equinor,
Eni,
Chevron,
[134] and the Chinese
ENN Group.
[135][136][137] Recently, private fusion companies have attracted investment in the billions of dollars. For example, in 2021, Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) obtained $1.8 billion in scale-up funding, and Helion Energy obtained a half-billion dollars with an additional $1.7 billion contingent on meeting milestones.
[138]
Scenarios developed in the 2000s and early 2010s discussed the effects of the commercialization of fusion power on the future of human civilization.
[139] Using nuclear fission as a guide, these saw ITER and later
DEMO as bringing online the first commercial reactors around 2050 and a rapid expansion after mid-century.
[139] Some scenarios emphasized "fusion nuclear science facilities" as a step beyond ITER.
[140][141] However, the economic obstacles to tokamak-based fusion power remain immense, requiring investment to fund prototype tokamak reactors
[142] and development of new supply chains,
[143] a problem which will affect any kind of fusion reactor.
[144] Tokamak designs appear to be labour-intensive,
[145] while the commercialization risk of alternatives like inertial fusion energy is high due to the lack of government resources.
[146]
Scenarios since 2010 note computing and material science advances enabling multi-phase national or cost-sharing "Fusion Pilot Plants" (FPPs) along various technology pathways,
[147][141][148][149][150][151] such as the UK
Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production, within the 2030–2040 time frame.
[152][153][154] Notably, in June 2021, General Fusion announced it would accept the UK government's offer to host the world's first substantial
public-private partnership fusion demonstration plant, at
Culham Centre for Fusion Energy.
[155] The plant will be constructed from 2022 to 2025 and is intended to lead the way for commercial pilot plants in the late 2025s. The plant will be 70% of full scale and is expected to attain a stable plasma of 150 million degrees.
[156] In the United States, cost-sharing public-private partnership FPPs appear likely,
[157] and in 2022 the DOE announced a new Milestone-Based Fusion Development Program as the centerpiece of its Bold Decadal Vision for Commercial Fusion Energy, which envisages private sector-led teams delivering FPP pre-conceptual designs, defining technology roadmaps, and pursuing the R&D necessary to resolve critical-path scientific and technical issues towards an FPP design.
[158] Compact reactor technology based on such demonstration plants may enable commercialization via a fleet approach from the 2030s
[159] if early markets can be located.
[154]
The widespread adoption of non-nuclear renewable energy has transformed the energy landscape. Such renewables are projected to supply 74% of global energy by 2050.
[160] The steady fall of renewable energy prices challenges the economic competitiveness of fusion power.
[161]
Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for various sources of energy including wind, solar and nuclear energy
Some economists suggest fusion power is unlikely to match other
renewable energy costs.
[161] Fusion plants are expected to face large start up and
capital costs. Moreover, operation and maintenance are likely to be costly.
[161] While the costs of the CFETR are not well known, an EU DEMO fusion concept was projected to feature a
levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of $121/MWh.
[162]
Furthermore, economists suggest that fusion energy cost increases by $16.5/ MWh for every $1 billion increase in the price of fusion technology.
[161] This high Levelized cost of energy is largely a result of construction costs.
[161]
In contrast,
renewable levelized cost of energy estimates are substantially lower. For instance, the 2019 levelized cost of energy of
solar energy was estimated to be $40-$46/MWh,
on shore wind was estimated at $29-$56/MWh, and
offshore wind was approximately $92/MWh.
[163]
However, fusion power may still have a role filling energy gaps left by renewables,
[154][161] depending on how administration priorities for energy and environmental justice influence the market.
[138] In the 2020s, socioeconomic studies of fusion that began to consider these factors emerged,
[164] and in 2022 EUROFusion launched its Socio-Economic Studies and Prospective Research and Development strands to investigate how such factors might affect commercialization pathways and timetables.
[165] Similarly, in April 2023 Japan announced a national strategy to industrialise fusion.
[166] Thus, fusion power may work in tandem with other renewable energy sources rather than becoming the primary energy source.
[161] In some applications, fusion power could provide the base load, especially if including integrated thermal storage and cogeneration and considering the potential for retrofitting coal plants.
[154][161]
Regulation[edit]
As fusion pilot plants move within reach, legal and regulatory issues must be addressed.
[167] In September 2020, the United States
National Academy of Sciences consulted with private fusion companies to consider a national pilot plant. The following month, the United States Department of Energy, the
Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the
Fusion Industry Association co-hosted a public forum to begin the process.
[134] In November 2020, the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) began working with various nations to create safety standards
[168] such as dose regulations and
radioactive waste handling.
[168] In January and March 2021, NRC hosted two public meetings on regulatory frameworks.
[169][170] A public-private cost-sharing approach was endorsed in the 27 December H.R.133 Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021, which authorized $325 million over five years for a partnership program to build fusion demonstration facilities, with a 100% match from private industry.
[171] Subsequently, the UK Regulatory Horizons Council published a report calling for a fusion regulatory framework by early 2022
[172] in order to position the UK as a global leader in commercializing fusion power.
[173] This call was met by the UK government publishing in October 2021 both its
Fusion Green Paper and its
Fusion Strategy, to regulate and commercialize fusion, respectively.
[174][175][176] Then, in April 2023, in a decision likely to influence other nuclear regulators, the NRC announced in a unanimous vote that fusion energy would be regulated not as fission but under the same regulatory regime as particle accelerators.
[177]
Geopolitics[edit]
Given the potential of fusion to transform the world's
energy industry and mitigate
climate change,
[178][179] fusion science has traditionally been seen as an integral part of peace-building
science diplomacy.
[180][113] However, technological developments
[181] and private sector involvement has raised concerns over intellectual property, regulatory administration, global leadership;
[178] equity, and potential weaponization.
[137][182] These challenge ITER's peace-building role and led to calls for a global commission.
[182][183] Fusion power significantly contributing to climate change by 2050 seems unlikely without substantial breakthroughs and a space race mentality emerging,
[148][184] but a contribution by 2100 appears possible, with the extent depending on the type and particularly cost of technology pathways.
[185][186]
Developments from late 2020 onwards have led to talk of a "new space race" with multiple entrants, pitting the US against China
[45] and the UK's
STEP FPP.
[187][188] On 24 September, the United States House of Representatives approved a research and commercialization program. The Fusion Energy Research section incorporated a milestone-based, cost-sharing,
public-private partnership program modeled on
NASA's COTS program, which launched the commercial
space industry.
[134] In February 2021, the National Academies published
Bringing Fusion to the U.S. Grid, recommending a market-driven, cost-sharing plant for 2035–2040,
[189][190][191] and the launch of the Congressional Bipartisan Fusion Caucus followed.
[192]
In December 2020, an independent expert panel reviewed
EUROfusion's design and R&D work on DEMO, and EUROfusion confirmed it was proceeding with its Roadmap to Fusion Energy, beginning the conceptual design of DEMO in partnership with the European fusion community, suggesting an EU-backed machine had entered the race.
[193]
Advantages[edit]
Fusion power promises to provide more energy for a given weight of fuel than any fuel-consuming energy source currently in use.
[194] The fuel (primarily
deuterium) exists abundantly in the ocean: about 1 in 6500 hydrogen atoms in seawater is deuterium.
[195] Although this is only about 0.015%, seawater is plentiful and easy to access, implying that fusion could supply the world's energy needs for millions of years.
[196][197]
First generation fusion plants are expected to use the deuterium-tritium fuel cycle. This will require the use of lithium for breeding of the tritium. It is not known for how long global lithium supplies will suffice to supply this need as well as those of the battery and metallurgical industries. It is expected that second generation plants will move on to the more formidable deuterium-deuterium reaction. The deuterium-helium-3 reaction is also of interest, but the light helium isotope is practically non-existent on Earth. It is thought to exist in useful quantities in the
lunar regolith, and is abundant in the atmospheres of the gas giant planets.
Fusion power could be used for so-called "deep space" propulsion within the solar system
[198][199] and for
interstellar space exploration where solar energy is not available, including via
antimatter-fusion hybrid drives.
[200][201]
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