Unemployment falls to 8.3%

[pinqy]

There still are huge gaps in the information gathered. The company you worked for could close and you might just start collecting SS for example. You would never enter the survey.

Why not? It's a household survey.

Not a general household survey, but one of those who applied for unemployment benefits. If you go directly from job loss to SS or don't report yourself as out of work, you fall off the radar.

No it's not, it's a general household survey... in the truest sense: houses are selected, not people.

 

[saveliberty]

Why not? It's a household survey.

Not a general household survey, but one of those who applied for unemployment benefits. If you go directly from job loss to SS or don't report yourself as out of work, you fall off the radar.

No it's not, it's a general household survey... in the truest sense: houses are selected, not people.

I see that from the quote a few posts back:

Each month, 2,200 highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees interview persons in the 60,000 sample households for information on the labor force activities (jobholding and jobseeking) or non-labor force status of the members of these households during the survey reference week (usually the week that includes the 12th of the month). At the time of the first enumeration of a household, the interviewer prepares a roster of the household members, including their personal characteristics (date of birth, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, marital status, educational attainment, veteran status, and so on) and their relationships to the person maintaining the household. This information, relating to all household members 15 years of age and over, is entered by the interviewers into laptop computers; at the end of each day's interviewing, the data collected are transmitted to the Census Bureau's central computer in Washington, D.C

Any idea if the survey is by phone? Unless in person, it seems whole subgroups would be missed.

 

[saveliberty]

I think it is also important to note that the Census Bureau does the survey collection and not BLS. The definitions may not be exactly the same for each agency.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Not everyone on unemployment is in the survey. Once in the survey, you're in for a four month period. It is confusing because the survey is separate from the benefits part.

I'm not talking about the survey. The government according to there web site does not count you as unemployed if you have exhausted your benefits.

No, you are not counted as INSURED when your unemployment insurance runs out.
Again, no matter how many times you leave out INSURED it won't remove the word INSURED from the government BLS web site.

Are you saying there's a difference between unemployment and unemployment check?

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Proof of the fact that CON$ lie in packs.

Thank you.

There's a difference ed if a person is no longer receiving a unemployment check the government does not consider them unemployed. The government does not keep track of someone when they are no longer receiving that unemployment check. They are no longer considered unemployed. It doesn't matter if they found a job or not.

Again from your OWN BLS link on the Current Population Survey.

There are about 60,000 households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and county-equivalent cities in the country first are grouped into 2,025 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample consisting of 824 of these geographic areas to represent each State and the District of Columbia. The sample is a State-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each State. (For a detailed explanation of CPS sampling methodology, see Chapter 1, of the BLS Handbook of Methods.)
Every month, one-fourth of the households in the sample are changed, so that no household is interviewed more than 4 consecutive months. This practice avoids placing too heavy a burden on the households selected for the sample. After a household is interviewed for 4 consecutive months, it leaves the sample for 8 months, and then is again interviewed for the same 4 calendar months a year later, before leaving the sample for good. This procedure results in approximately 75 percent of the sample remaining the same from month to month and 50 percent from year to year.
Each month, 2,200 highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees interview persons in the 60,000 sample households for information on the labor force activities (jobholding and jobseeking) or non-labor force status of the members of these households during the survey reference week (usually the week that includes the 12th of the month). At the time of the first enumeration of a household, the interviewer prepares a roster of the household members, including their personal characteristics (date of birth, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, marital status, educational attainment, veteran status, and so on) and their relationships to the person maintaining the household. This information, relating to all household members 15 years of age and over, is entered by the interviewers into laptop computers; at the end of each day's interviewing, the data collected are transmitted to the Census Bureau's central computer in Washington, D.C. (The labor force measures in the CPS pertain to individuals 16 years and over.) In addition, a portion of the sample is interviewed by phone through three central data collection facilities. (Prior to 1994, the interviews were conducted using a paper questionnaire that had to be mailed in by the interviewers each month.)

You keep evading the rest of the page that states what I have been saying?

 

[edthecynic]

I'm not talking about the survey. The government according to there web site does not count you as unemployed if you have exhausted your benefits.

No, you are not counted as INSURED when your unemployment insurance runs out.
Again, no matter how many times you leave out INSURED it won't remove the word INSURED from the government BLS web site.

Are you saying there's a difference between unemployment and unemployment check?

Absolutely! So the BLS link you posted says, less than 40% of the unemployed the BLS counts get an unenployment insurance check.

Because of these and other limitations, statistics on insured unemployment cannot be used as a count of total unemployment in the United States. Indeed, during 2008, only 36 percent of the total unemployed received UI benefits. The weekly data on UI claims do have important uses, however, and provide a timely indicator on labor market conditions.

 

[edthecynic]

There's a difference ed if a person is no longer receiving a unemployment check the government does not consider them unemployed. The government does not keep track of someone when they are no longer receiving that unemployment check. They are no longer considered unemployed. It doesn't matter if they found a job or not.

Again from your OWN BLS link on the Current Population Survey.

There are about 60,000 households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and county-equivalent cities in the country first are grouped into 2,025 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample consisting of 824 of these geographic areas to represent each State and the District of Columbia. The sample is a State-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each State. (For a detailed explanation of CPS sampling methodology, see Chapter 1, of the BLS Handbook of Methods.)
Every month, one-fourth of the households in the sample are changed, so that no household is interviewed more than 4 consecutive months. This practice avoids placing too heavy a burden on the households selected for the sample. After a household is interviewed for 4 consecutive months, it leaves the sample for 8 months, and then is again interviewed for the same 4 calendar months a year later, before leaving the sample for good. This procedure results in approximately 75 percent of the sample remaining the same from month to month and 50 percent from year to year.
Each month, 2,200 highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees interview persons in the 60,000 sample households for information on the labor force activities (jobholding and jobseeking) or non-labor force status of the members of these households during the survey reference week (usually the week that includes the 12th of the month). At the time of the first enumeration of a household, the interviewer prepares a roster of the household members, including their personal characteristics (date of birth, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, marital status, educational attainment, veteran status, and so on) and their relationships to the person maintaining the household. This information, relating to all household members 15 years of age and over, is entered by the interviewers into laptop computers; at the end of each day's interviewing, the data collected are transmitted to the Census Bureau's central computer in Washington, D.C. (The labor force measures in the CPS pertain to individuals 16 years and over.) In addition, a portion of the sample is interviewed by phone through three central data collection facilities. (Prior to 1994, the interviews were conducted using a paper questionnaire that had to be mailed in by the interviewers each month.)

You keep evading the rest of the page that states what I have been saying?

No it doesn't. To get it to say what you want it to say, YOU leave out critical parts. That is dishonest.

 

[saveliberty]

I like where this discussion is going. Many details to this situation. Exposing them helps all of us understand better.

 

[pinqy]

Not a general household survey, but one of those who applied for unemployment benefits. If you go directly from job loss to SS or don't report yourself as out of work, you fall off the radar.

No it's not, it's a general household survey... in the truest sense: houses are selected, not people.

I see that from the quote a few posts back:

Each month, 2,200 highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees interview persons in the 60,000 sample households for information on the labor force activities (jobholding and jobseeking) or non-labor force status of the members of these households during the survey reference week (usually the week that includes the 12th of the month). At the time of the first enumeration of a household, the interviewer prepares a roster of the household members, including their personal characteristics (date of birth, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, marital status, educational attainment, veteran status, and so on) and their relationships to the person maintaining the household. This information, relating to all household members 15 years of age and over, is entered by the interviewers into laptop computers; at the end of each day's interviewing, the data collected are transmitted to the Census Bureau's central computer in Washington, D.C

Any idea if the survey is by phone? Unless in person, it seems whole subgroups would be missed.

I think it is also important to note that the Census Bureau does the survey collection and not BLS. The definitions may not be exactly the same for each agency.

Households are I for 4 months, off for 8, back in for 4. The first and 13th months are required to be in person, all others have the option of phone.
It's a joint survey so there's only one set of definitions.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Again from your OWN BLS link on the Current Population Survey.

You keep evading the rest of the page that states what I have been saying?

No it doesn't. To get it to say what you want it to say, YOU leave out critical parts. That is dishonest.

What ever ed knock yourself out. your not going to change the fact how the government does it, But keep telling yourself you're right.
If a person has exhausted their benefits they are dropped from unemployment. If they lie about what they have done to lose their job they lose their unemployment and they are no longer considered unemployed by the government. That's the way it's done. You can have the last word but it's not going to change the way the government does things. IF the government would say Unemployment was down to 6.0% you would no doubt believe it.

 

[edthecynic]

Why not? It's a household survey.

Not a general household survey, but one of those who applied for unemployment benefits. If you go directly from job loss to SS or don't report yourself as out of work, you fall off the radar.

No it's not, it's a general household survey... in the truest sense: houses are selected, not people.

From the BLS web site:

There are about 60,000 households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Scrolling down through this thread, a couple things become obvious:

1. The extreme LibDems seem overly optimistic. Yes, I would agree things are getting better out there. But we have some fundamental problems with our economy that this president neither caused nor can he fix.
2. The extreme ConservaRepubLitarians are so party-before-country on this. They yell and scream that nothing can get better or will get better while Obama is president. That's just foolish. Obama is not all-powerful. He has not stopped companies from hiring in the past. He is not the reason companies are hiring people now. Don't be so hysterical guys. It's okay if the country gets better!

And it is getting better.

I commend balanced observation and conclusion.

The extremists on both sides have to put country before party.

 

[edthecynic]

You keep evading the rest of the page that states what I have been saying?

No it doesn't. To get it to say what you want it to say, YOU leave out critical parts. That is dishonest.

What ever ed knock yourself out. your not going to change the fact how the government does it, But keep telling yourself you're right.
If a person has exhausted their benefits they are dropped from unemployment. If they lie about what they have done to lose their job they lose their unemployment and they are no longer considered unemployed by the government. That's the way it's done. You can have the last word but it's not going to change the way the government does things. IF the government would say Unemployment was down to 6.0% you would no doubt believe it.

Contrary to Goebbels, no matter how many times you repeat that lie it will always be a lie!

If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.
Joseph Goebbels

 

[saveliberty]

No it's not, it's a general household survey... in the truest sense: houses are selected, not people.

I see that from the quote a few posts back:

Each month, 2,200 highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees interview persons in the 60,000 sample households for information on the labor force activities (jobholding and jobseeking) or non-labor force status of the members of these households during the survey reference week (usually the week that includes the 12th of the month). At the time of the first enumeration of a household, the interviewer prepares a roster of the household members, including their personal characteristics (date of birth, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, marital status, educational attainment, veteran status, and so on) and their relationships to the person maintaining the household. This information, relating to all household members 15 years of age and over, is entered by the interviewers into laptop computers; at the end of each day's interviewing, the data collected are transmitted to the Census Bureau's central computer in Washington, D.C

Any idea if the survey is by phone? Unless in person, it seems whole subgroups would be missed.

I think it is also important to note that the Census Bureau does the survey collection and not BLS. The definitions may not be exactly the same for each agency.

Households are I for 4 months, off for 8, back in for 4. The first and 13th months are required to be in person, all others have the option of phone.
It's a joint survey so there's only one set of definitions.

For survey data I imagine you're correct. That doesn't mean unemployment in relation to benefits doesn't have a slightly different meaning. In fact, I strongly suspect it does mean something else.

 

[saveliberty]

Despite the details and definitions, the US is not on good economic footing when this many people are out of work and taking lower paying jobs when they do go back.

 

[pinqy]

Not a general household survey, but one of those who applied for unemployment benefits. If you go directly from job loss to SS or don't report yourself as out of work, you fall off the radar.

No it's not, it's a general household survey... in the truest sense: houses are selected, not people.

From the BLS web site:

There are about 60,000 households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people.

That doesn't contradict what I said. Census selects physical addresses and interviews the people there. If during the 16 months in the sample the residents change, it doesn't matter, the new residents are surveyed. The survey is for an address, not an individual.

 

[Chris]

The U.S. has seen 23 months of private-sector job growth.

The private sector added nearly 3.7 million jobs over those 23 months.

The manufacturing sector has added 396,000 jobs since December 2009, with annual job growth in the last two years for the first time since 1997.

 

[Big Fitz]

BULLSHIT!

Reagan's partners held the hostages for St Ronnie till after the election as they had agreed. Oil prices were already heading down days before the lying BushWhacker pretended to open up drilling that was still banned by the individual states involved.

But do continue to blame Obama for Bush's **** ups that happened before Obama was elected. Your Obama Derangement Syndrome makes you look brilliant as you parrot your MessiahRushie.

... "It was a conspiracy!!!!", Ed screams in a panicked voice at the discovery of his paranoid delusion of failure.

He then rocked himself back to his fever dream of Rush/Bush Derangement Syndrome.

REAGAN (11/13/86): We did not, repeat, did not trade weapons or anything else for hostages, nor will we.

REAGAN (3/4/87): A few months ago, I told the American people I did not trade arms for hostages. My heart and my best intentions still tell me that's true. But the facts and the evidence tell me it is not.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4q6eaLn2mY&feature=endscreen&NR=1]Monty Python and The Holy Grail Monks (with subtitles) - YouTube[/ame]

Jebus Cripes!! Give it a rest. Nobody buys your Reagan Derangement syndrome either.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Where did Big Fitz find bigreb leading the Tea Party parade in that clip?

 

[Big Fitz]

If they are still looking for work they are considered unemployed.

Not according to the BLS as we have shown. They instead are 'ignored' or 'adjusted out'.

Proof of the fact that CON$ lie in packs.

Thank you.

You're just no fun to listen to scream in delusional fright any more, you know that? You've really gotta pick up your game or find a new hobby that involves prescription tranquilizers.