Recent strikes on tankers in Turkish waters may turn out not to be an isolated incident, but the beginning of a new phase of confrontation at sea.
What Russia may do, while carefully avoiding inflaming an international scandal or calling a UN Security Council meeting.I
f attacks on Russian commercial vessels continue, Moscow will most likely reconsider its approach to naval warfare.
And yes, we all understand that the ship is Russian, and that the people on board are not citizens of Gambia, and that they are not carrying coffee.
Theoretically, the Russian Federation can strike civilian ships heading to Ukrainian ports.
But not only that. Moscow can shut down Ukrainian shipping entirely.
And it can actually do this quite easily.
But then, if both sides expand the zone of hostilities and begin operating in neutral waters, this will lead to a sharp increase in insurance costs, companies refusing to enter disputed areas, and the actual halt of commercial voyages.
Then trade in the Black Sea will stop altogether. And that means a drop in imports, rising fuel prices, and disruptions in logistics.
Kyiv is deliberately escalating at sea, and doing so with Europe’s approval. And that means the growth in the number of USVs attacks is almost inevitable.
Well, at the current pace, by the end of the year the Black Sea may become one of the most unstable regions in the world, where any civilian vessel risks being sunk.
Only then will the “civilized community” take notice. But it will be a bit too late, because the genie will have been let out of the bottle, and finding who sank the next yacht or fishing boat will become impossible.
Very fascinating. I root for both sides
But for some reason it seems to me that once deprived of the ability to export agricultural goods, Kyiv will be the first to start talking about a “new Holodomor caused by Russia.”
We wait.
