Ernst votes in line with Donald Trump 91% of the time.
For context, right-wing nut Susan Collins vote swith Trump less than 70% of the time.
Her support for Trump is dragging Ernst down....
Fake News.
Iowa Poll: Donald Trump takes over lead in Iowa as Joe Biden collapses in the stretch:
Republican President Donald Trump has taken over the lead in Iowa as Democratic former Vice President Joe Biden has faded, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows just days before Election Day.
Boom!
The president now leads by 7 percentage points over Biden, 48% to 41%. Three percent say they will vote for someone else, 2% aren’t sure and 5% don’t want to say for whom they will vote.
Seven is a lot!
In September’s Iowa Poll, the candidates were tied at 47% to 47%.
The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines from Oct. 26-29. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Nate Cohn notes:
Trump leads the final Selzer poll of Iowa by 7 points, 48 to 41.
That’s the same margin as their final poll four years ago, which wound up foreshadowing Trump’s Midwestern sweep
Note that this change reflects a Biden collapse.
Iowa Poll: Republican Joni Ernst pulls ahead of Democrat Theresa Greenfield in closing days of U.S. Senate race:
Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst has pulled ahead of Democrat Theresa Greenfield in the closing stretch of a contentious U.S. Senate race, according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.
Opens a lead
Ernst leads 46% to 42% over Greenfield, the Iowa Poll shows. Another 3% say they plan to vote for someone else, 1% do not plan to vote in the Senate race, 3% are unsure and 4% already voted but did not want to say which candidate they support.
Ernst Pulls Ahead
The poll of 814 likely Iowa voters was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines from Oct. 26-29. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points….
In June, Greenfield led Ernst by 3 percentage points, 46% to 43%. In September, Greenfield maintained that 3-percentage-point lead, 45% to 42%. The margin of error for both of those polls was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Something’s happening here. It could be that there is a late Trump surge, and the late-deciders are breaking for Trump as they did in 2016. It could be that Republican chances of hanging onto the Senate are better than thought.
The Des Moines Register final polling may be wrong, but it’s a sign that it ain’t over, until it’s over — which in the case of several states will be days after Election Day.
I doubt that pollsters have correctly anticipated the 2020 turnout, but, in 48 hours we should have a pretty good idea about how close, or how wrong, the pollsters are.