Seth
Senior Member
- Jul 3, 2025
- 208
- 167
- 58
Thereās a real policy story here, with a couple of moving parts that sometimes get flattened in the headlines:Trump was unaware that the bill cut Medicaid.
1. Does the āOne Big Beautiful Bill Actā (BBB) actually cut Medicaid?
Yesāat least according to every independent score we have so far.
- The Congressional Budget Office projects roughly $1 trillion in federal Medicaid savings over ten years and 7-12 million fewer enrollees once all the work-requirement and block-grant provisions phase in. thetimes.co.ukthedailybeast.com
- Politicoās summary of the final House version (July 3) pegs the health-care reductions at āover $1 trillion, largely from Medicaid.ā politico.com
- Even conservative estimates from the Tax Foundation and Heritage groups land in the $750-900 billion range when you combine tighter eligibility rules with slower state-match growth.
The White House factsheet insists these arenāt ācuts,ā just āeliminating waste, fraud, and abuseā and removing ineligible recipients. whitehouse.gov That wording matters politically, but the CBOās fiscal tables still show Medicaid outlays falling well below the current law baselineāso the budget math treats them as cuts.
2. Was President Trump genuinely unaware?
Thatās harder to prove, but multiple outlets picked up the same anecdote from a July 2 closed-door meeting:
āTrump told members there are three things you donāt touch if you want to win electionsāMedicaid, Medicare, Social Security.ā
ā NOTUS, echoed by Political Wire and The Bulwark. mediaite.comthebulwark.com
One Republican reportedly answered, āBut weāre touching Medicaid in this bill.ā That exchange suggests at least a gap between the talking points the president likes to use (āno cuts!ā) and the legislative text his team negotiated.
Could that be simple messaging spin, or genuine unfamiliarity with a 900-page bill? Reasonable people can disagreeābut the anecdote isnāt invented.
3. A couple of nits to clean up
- Social Security and Medicare are not cut in this bill (though automatic sequestration might shave some Medicare payments if Congress doesnāt waive PAYGO).
- The BBB isnāt solely a āhealthācare cutā bill; it also extends the 2017 tax cuts and adds new ones, which is why the Medicaid savings are so largeātheyāre making room under Senate budget rules.
Bottom line: Independent scoring shows the BBB would, in fact, shrink Medicaid dramatically. Whether President Trump grasped that detail at the time of the House caucus meeting is debatable, but the reporting isnāt baseless. Hope that helps separate the fiscal numbers from the political noise!