The math as they say, is the math. Here's a very likely (imho) scenario. This doesn't count the 12 additional delegates still not awarded to Trump is MO and assumes he loses ND,NE, MT,NM, and SD.
Total PLEDGED delegates as of today = 739
ND 0 - there are 28 "unbound" delegates -assumes that even if he wins they'll screw him
WI 42 - up by 10 in latest poll
NY 95 - he is polling at 65% in latest poll- he will win all 95 delegates
CT 16 - tri-state area- he's a lock but assumes only 16 of 28 delegates
DE 16 - winner take all - no polling data
MD 38 - leading by 12 points
PA 71 -leading by 10 points
RI 11 assumes 11 of 19
IN 57 - rust belt dominance likely
NE 0
WV 17 - assumes a 50/50 split
OR 16 - assumes a 50/50 split
WA 26 - assumes a 50/50 split
CA 91 - assumes he wins with a plurality -he could get even more here-he leads the polls by double digits- 172 total delegates
MT 0
NJ 51 - leads by 18 points - winner take all
NM 0
SD 0
= 1308
He only needs 1237 to wrap it up so he has 71 delegates worth of breathing room