538 gave Hillary a 71% chance of winning
And 30% of Trump winning.
If you flip a coin twice, the odds of the coin landing on heads twice or tails twice is 25%, lower than the odds of Trump winning in 2016 according to 538.
So it's not that much of a stretch if you understand probabilities.
edit - During the election, Nate Silver was criticizing those sites that said Hillary had an almost certain, i.e. 98%, chance of winning.
So it's not that much of a stretch if you understand probabilities.
Obviously, based on the polls leading up to election day
it is a stretch for those who can’t accept Trump won
and the probability of Russia helping him win, is more likely
Obviously, without Russia it is a stretch
I understand probability
The greater likelihood of what happened
what will happen, what could happen
from the available possibilities
I also understand possibility
A coin landing on the same side twice,
has a 25% probability of happening
based on 4 possible outcomes before the first toss
If I flip a coin and it lands on heads
There is a 50% probability of landing heads the second toss
if I base the possibility of that happening after the first toss
71%, 98%, what’s the difference?
Both figures gave Hillary the likelihood of winning
They each had a 50% possibility of winning
The 2016 election is a testament that
the Electoral College is fundamentally sound and necessary
Hillary may have received more votes in total from all the states
but Trump received the majority of votes in the majority of states
Hillary received concentrated votes not widespread support