Wow, maybe 75 people, many of them his security team. I love the expression of the woman to his left. Maybe Trump had just farted.
It's killing you, isn't it. During August Hillary's support among women, Hispanics and liberals has fallen sharply, and now her last bastion of strong support, African Americans, is welcoming Trump.
You are fooling yourself, just like Correll and Vigilante did earlier, if you think she is collapsing. She is certainly not. She needs 36 EVs in todays polls, and Trump has not budged from the 116 he needs.
It is far from over, but she is clearly trending down, and it is hard to see how she can reverse this trend since her campaign has no substance and is entirely dependent of Trump making huge gaffes which he is clearly not making anymore. All the stories about Trump are affirmative and positive, his visit to Mexico, a strong clear speech on illegal immigration and now this visit to the Detroit church, and all the stories about Hillary lately are negative. If Hillary continues to depend on going negative on Trump, she will lose his election. She must begin to give voters affirmative reasons for voting for her if she hopes to win this election.
You are substituting your assertions ("campaign has no substance" and "dependent of Trump making huge gaffes" that he will not make anymore. That is your spin on Trump and Mexico, Trump and immigration, Trump and the black church.
You are hoping, but understand those are hopes, not facts.
I think (my assertion) is that the debates are becoming even more key.
But one of your implied assertions is one I agree with: the election is Hillary ~ to lose or win.
If she gets her act together better, Trump will be in hot water again.
I didn't just make these things up. If you look at the graph of national polls on RCP, you will see that Hillary's two big surges came when Trump made huge mistakes, attacking the Hispanic judge of his Trump University lawsuit and attacking Khan. The graph shows that when Trump is not making those kinds of mistakes, Hillary's support just flatlines. Also, Trump supporters will often tell you they support Trump because of one of his policies, but only rarely do you find a Clinton supporter who tells you he or she supports Hillary because of one of the policies she proposes in this election. Hence, Trump has given his supporters affirmative reasons to vote for him, but Hillary has failed to give her supporters affirmative reasons to vote for her. That's what I mean by her campaign having no substance.
As I see it, there are three factors working against Hillary. First, she has done such a terrible job of handling the controversy over her emails/server that instead of just fading away, it continues to grow until now there is hardly a day that goes by without something coming out that casts doubt on her honesty and judgement.
Second, since Clinton has largely failed to imbue in her supporters affirmative reasons for voting for her, if Trump continues to avoid making huge gaffes, the negative stories about her that are now pouring out will cause much of her support to wilt.
Third, Hillary has antagonized the press by refusing to hold press conferences for so long and now that the email/server controversy has grown to such a pitch, if she does have one, she is sure to be savaged by them if she continues to be evasive or dishonest. On the other hand, if she continues to avoid press conferences, she will look weak and guilty and that will cost her support.
The debates can be crucial if one or the other wins decisively, but if they split the debates, then the election will be decided by three groups of voters: those who vote for Trump, those who vote for Clinton and those who vote for a third party candidate or who decide just not to vote. So even if Trump does not pick up much more support, if Clinton continues to lose support, states like Virginia, for example, will fall into the Trump column.
