Soccer Moms, Security Moms... Lou Dobbs Moms?
National Review's Rich Lowry makes a valid point about the May Day protests. He says they contribute to a sense that things are out of control, which hurts the President. That may be true as far as it goes.
At the same time, those marches call more attention to the issue of immigration generally, and I think that helps Congressional Republicans. For better or worse, there are lots of Republican voters out there who are very upset about illegal immigration. They're some of the same people that helped deliver House Republicans a 54-seat pickup in 1994. By standing firmly against an amnesty, I believe House Republicans are giving their conservative base a real reason to come out in support this fall. I'll need to watch the polling data to see if the conservative base is starting to improve its view of Republicans in Congress.
If this is correct, I think Bush's standing is likely to improve as well, as the base 'comes home' for Republicans generally.
I'm starting to wonder whether this may be the year of the Lou Dobbs voter. Dobbs is a demagogue who either underwent an epiphany when space.com failed, or doesn't believe half of what he says. Nevertheless, he stands for some causes that look pretty popular right now: wariness of international trade, opposition to illegal immigration, and throwing the bums out of Washington. Now take a look at the latest CBS News Poll on voter priorities:
"What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?" Open-ended
War in Iraq 23%
Gas costs/Heating oil 13%
Economy/Jobs 12%
Immigration 8%
Terrorism (general) 3%
What is Congress debating this month? Lobbying reform, foreign investments like the Dubai Ports World deal, gas prices, immigration restrictions, China's unfair trade practices... sound like anyone we know? It seems that Lou Dobbs has his finger on the pulse this year.
As the party in power, Republicans are poorly-positioned to 'take advantage,' but Democrats have weaknesses on ethics, immigration, and the war on terror. It'll be interesting to watch.
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# posted by Nanman @ 10:24 AM