Thucydides and His Trap

[Hawk1981]

Using eye witnesses and relating his own wartime experience, Thucydides created a strong account of what happened in his book, History of the Peloponnesian War. Thucydides felt that history should be studied critically and objectively, showing the relationships between cause and effect. In contrast to Herodotus whose histories were a medium of entertainment, Thucydides focused more on factual content and analysis.

Thucydides

Born in Athens to a wealthy family in the fifth century, BCE, Thucydides participated in the wars with Sparta. Thucydides was sent as a general by the Athenian commander to relieve an allied city from Spartan attack. By the time Thucydides and his fleet had arrived, the city had apparently come to terms with Sparta. The Athenians blamed the loss on Thucydides and exiled him for twenty years. Relying on the resources of his family he was able to travel and devout his time to researching and writing his history of the Peloponnesian War.

The Peloponnesian War 431 to 404 BCE

Thucydides believed that his History would serve as "a possession for all time" because the war was so important for its extended suffering. The History eventually covering twenty-one years of the twenty-seven year war. The book abruptly breaks off leading to the assumption that Thucydides perished before being able to complete his work.

The History is highly regarded as a detailed accounting of events and understanding of details from both sides of the conflict, noting in his book that he "was able to become acquainted with affairs on both sides."

Later critical interpretation of Thucydides' work suggests that his focus on factual and empirical evidence along with his skepticism of justice and morality reflect his personal experience from the conflict as well as the blind and immoderate behavior of the Athenians, Spartans and their allies.

Thucydides' treatment of the war offers several insights, he wrote that "It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this inspired in Sparta, that made war inevitable." Noting a trap for the participants where inexorable and powerful stresses were rapidly built in the sudden shift in the balance of power. On the one hand, Athens' growing entitlement, sense of its importance and demand for greater influence; and on the other hand, Sparta's fear, insecurity and determination to defend the status quo of its established power.

The History's chronicle of how forces grew to change the perception of power between Athens and Sparta, the efforts at counterbalancing change along with the construction of entangling alliances, has been influential in explaining international relations ever since Thucydides's time. Perhaps a lesson for future leaders to remember is that their actions will be objectively scrutinized by historians.

 

[Hawk1981]

Thucydides's Trap, is a term coined by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as the international hegemon.

It was coined and is primarily used to describe a potential conflict between The United States and The People's Republic of China. The term and arguments surrounding it have had influence in international media, including Chinese state media, and among American and Chinese politicians. China’s Xi Jinping has himself referenced the term, cautioning that: "We all need to work together to avoid the Thucydides trap—destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers…Our aim is to foster a new model of major country relations."

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

If my memory serves me well, I first read parts of Thucydides’ masterpiece at University where in my “Western Civilization” classics course we were forced to read a few short translated sections. I was hooked then and later read the whole book. It is filled with many profound insights, recreated speeches, and real politik observations.

Thucydides brings us back 2,400 years and narrates chronologically the history of the tragic Greek Civil Wars. Their “Golden Age” ended in chaos in the aftermath of those wars with the defeat of Athens and the “Death of Socrates.” Thucydides doesn’t tell the story of Socrates or delve deeply into the culture of Greece, but he describes well the differences between Sparta and Athens. He speaks in a voice you quickly learn to trust. He writes of men and politics in a way simultaneously rational, realistic, wise, experienced, and modern.

As for the “Thucydides Trap” today, Hawk1981 is right to emphasize that Chinese political leaders have studied this issue carefully. I think they pay greater attention to the dangers Thucydides expounded upon than do American politicians, especially elected politicians, especially those like Trump whose attention is focused on tweets, polls, TV, and the next election. Here is a recent article on the “Thucydides Trap” in the English-Language Hong-Kong based South China Morning Post: Inevitable war? China, America and their next battlegrounds