There are good reasons to think Harris has this in the bag

[ThisIsMe]

The end result will be close, but Harris will come out on top.

Here are all the reasons why:

1) Harris’s strongest polling has been in the blue wall states. The swing state margins are pretty close in general, but Harris has consistently polled well in those three by decent margins. The polling averages are wider there than any of Trump’s winning swing states. Harris winning these three would be just enough to give her 270 assuming the polling in Nebraska’s second holds. She is also likely to win Nevada on top of it. If she’s lucky, she might even win North Carolina based on how utterly pathetic the republican governor candidate is.

2) The historian who has successfully predicted every election outcome besides Gore/bush since 1984 gives it to Harris based on his model.

3) The betting markets have Harris well in the lead right now and this will likely hold until Election Day. These markets have successfully predicted almost every election going back to the late 19th century.

She might win, that’s a possibility. It’s just really close right now.

I’m be glued to the television on election night. It’s going to be interesting…and entertaining.

 

[Billiejeens]

Oh god your cult is so nauseatingly stupid and embarrassing lol

Move away from the mirror

 

[candycorn]

I hope you're right, but I'm still gonna vote and take as many people with me as I can round up, just in case. We can celebrate later if it comes out right. Don't back off now.

Agreed. Given the chicanery of the red states involving counting votes and the rhetoric and conduct of the MAGA types, I won’t be sure that she is President unless she is the one taking the oath at 12:00 on 1/20/2025.

 

[Billy000]

/—-/ And even more:
Hundreds of national security officials, ex-Cabinet members, Gold Star families endorse Trump
Hundreds of national security officials, ex-Cabinet members, Gold Star families endorse Trump

You mean unlike the hundreds of republicans and former military brass that endorsed Harris?

 

[Cellblock2429]

You mean unlike the hundreds of republicans and former military brass that endorsed Harris?

/----/ It means your bragging about Republicans for Harris isn't as strong as you think it is.

 

[Billy000]

/----/ It means your bragging about Republicans for Harris isn't as strong as you think it is.

Um nope that is definitely solid lol

 

[hadit]

Momentum has changed.

 

[HikerGuy83]

The end result will be close, but Harris will come out on top.

Here are all the reasons why:

1) Harris’s strongest polling has been in the blue wall states. The swing state margins are pretty close in general, but Harris has consistently polled well in those three by decent margins. The polling averages are wider there than any of Trump’s winning swing states. Harris winning these three would be just enough to give her 270 assuming the polling in Nebraska’s second holds. She is also likely to win Nevada on top of it. If she’s lucky, she might even win North Carolina based on how utterly pathetic the republican governor candidate is.

2) The historian who has successfully predicted every election outcome besides Gore/bush since 1984 gives it to Harris based on his model.

3) The betting markets have Harris well in the lead right now and this will likely hold until Election Day. These markets have successfully predicted almost every election going back to the late 19th century.

538 has Trump at 55%.

538 has the senate a +4 for the GOP

538 has the GOP at 52% to win the state.

You are not a critical thinker. You never have been.

You are a full on moron and someone I hope drives off a mountain cliff before you can breed.

 

[Billy000]

538 has Trump at 55%.

538 has the senate a +4 for the GOP

538 has the GOP at 52% to win the state.

You are not a critical thinker. You never have been.

You are a full on moron and someone I hope drives off a mountain cliff before you can breed.

Well someone should explain statistics to you because 52% or 55% really isn’t any more significant than 50/50. In fact, if you go to 538’s website, they explain exactly that. It’s no better than a coin toss.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Well someone should explain statistics to you because 52% or 55% really isn’t any more significant than 50/50. In fact, if you go to 538’s website, they explain exactly that. It’s no better than a coin toss.

I work with statistics, you moron.

Such a blanket statement shows complete ignorance on your part. There are other analysis on the data that tell you how tight it is, and what your confidence level is across certain ranges of variability. They talk about that. No polling org is going to tell you a 10 point spread is the same as 50/50. That would be suicide to polling.

You are NOT a CRITICAL THINKER.

In fact, I am not sure if you are any kind of thinker at all.

 

[HikerGuy83]

You mean unlike the hundreds of republicans and former military brass that endorsed Harris?

Which means what ?

They want to stay on the gravy train ?

 

[HikerGuy83]

I think deep down you know how pathetic it is to support the GOP

The first two words in your post are a huge lie.

 

[BULLDOG]

I work with statistics, you moron.

Such a blanket statement shows complete ignorance on your part. There are other analysis on the data that tell you how tight it is, and what your confidence level is across certain ranges of variability. They talk about that. No polling org is going to tell you a 10 point spread is the same as 50/50. That would be suicide to polling.

You are NOT a CRITICAL THINKER.

In fact, I am not sure if you are any kind of thinker at all.

Damn. It would be so much better for you if the election was determined by statistics instead of actual votes, right?

 

[HikerGuy83]

Damn. It would be so much better for you if the election was determined by statistics instead of actual votes, right?

Or Billy.....the moron OP who tried to lecture us about statistics.

Thanks for trying though.