The scale of the debt crisis.

[Anomalism]

I want to talk about the federal debt because I think most people fundamentally misunderstand the scale of the problem we're facing.

First, let's clarify basic terms that many people confuse. The federal deficit is how much more we spend than we take in each year. The national debt is the total accumulated amount we owe from all previous years combined. For fiscal year 2025, our deficit was approximately $1.8 trillion. Our total national debt is now over $36 trillion. Every year we run a deficit, it adds to that total debt, and we're now paying over $1 trillion annually just in interest on money we've already borrowed.

Here's the reality about military spending. Even the most dramatic cuts wouldn't solve this problem. If we completely withdrew from Europe and Asia, closed all 750+ overseas bases, and dramatically reduced our military presence globally, we might realistically save around $500 billion annually. That sounds enormous, and it is, but it would only reduce our annual deficit by roughly 25-30%. We'd still be running a deficit of $1.2-1.4 trillion every single year.

It gets worse. If you completely eliminated the military, no Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, no defense budget whatsoever, we'd still have an annual deficit of approximately $900 billion. Think about that. The thing politicians argue about most could be entirely zeroed out and we'd still be adding nearly a trillion dollars to the national debt every year.

The structural problem is this. Total federal spending is roughly $6.8 trillion while revenue is only about $5 trillion. Just three categories, Social Security ($1.5T), Medicare/Medicaid ($1.6T), and interest on existing debt ($1T), consume nearly $4 trillion alone. That's more than our entire tax revenue before we spend a single dollar on defense, infrastructure, education, or anything else.

Here's what many people really don't understand about who we owe. The debt isn't primarily held by China or foreign adversaries. Foreign holders own about 23.5% of our debt, with China holding just 2.2% of the total. The vast majority is owned by domestic interests such as the Federal Reserve, American mutual funds and pension funds, banks, insurance companies, state and local governments, and Social Security trust funds. When we pay that $1+ trillion in annual interest, we're mostly transferring money from taxpayers to American asset holders, pension funds, 401ks, IRAs, and financial institutions.

This creates an impossible trap. We can't simply default on this debt. US Treasury bonds are the foundation of global finance, considered the world's safest asset. Every interest rate globally is priced off Treasury rates. A US default would trigger immediate economic apocalypse: pension funds would collapse, retirement accounts would evaporate, the dollar would lose reserve currency status, and the 2008 financial crisis would look mild by comparison. Defaulting to stick it to monied interests would devastate ordinary Americans whose retirement savings are in these "safe" investments.

The intergenerational injustice is profound. We're running up massive debts for current consumption and leaving the bill to future generations. By the time our great-grandchildren inherit this debt in 2125, it will be so woven into the financial system that they can't refuse to pay it without destroying their own economy. They'll be trapped, the debt too large to realistically pay off, but too catastrophic to default on. We're essentially robbing our descendants, and they'll have no choice but to service obligations created by our spending decisions.

This isn't a problem that can be solved by cutting any single area of spending or making any one policy change. It's structural and requires either massive entitlement reform, significant tax increases, or realistically both. These are political third rails that neither party wants to seriously address. The longer we wait, the deeper the hole gets and the more limited our options become.

What are your thoughts on realistic solutions? Or is this problem already beyond the point where democratic politics can address it?

 

[Concerned American]

It gets worse. If you completely eliminated the military, no Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, no defense budget whatsoever, we'd still have an annual deficit of approximately $900 billion. Think about that. The thing politicians argue about most could be entirely zeroed out and we'd still be adding nearly a trillion dollars to the national debt every year.

LOL, enough. If we got rid of all foreign bases and zeroed the defense budget---We wouldn't have any debt at all because we'd be speaking Mandarin and working in re-education camps.

 

[Anomalism]

LOL, enough. If we got rid of all foreign bases and zeroed the defense budget---We wouldn't have any debt at all because we'd be speaking Mandarin and working in re-education camps.

The point is a discussion about the military doesn't fix the problem. Even if we didn't have one we're drowning in debt still.

 

[Thinker101]

I want to talk about the federal debt because I think most people fundamentally misunderstand the scale of the problem we're facing.

First, let's clarify basic terms that many people confuse. The federal deficit is how much more we spend than we take in each year. The national debt is the total accumulated amount we owe from all previous years combined. For fiscal year 2025, our deficit was approximately $1.8 trillion. Our total national debt is now over $36 trillion. Every year we run a deficit, it adds to that total debt, and we're now paying over $1 trillion annually just in interest on money we've already borrowed.

Here's the reality about military spending. Even the most dramatic cuts wouldn't solve this problem. If we completely withdrew from Europe and Asia, closed all 750+ overseas bases, and dramatically reduced our military presence globally, we might realistically save around $500 billion annually. That sounds enormous, and it is, but it would only reduce our annual deficit by roughly 25-30%. We'd still be running a deficit of $1.2-1.4 trillion every single year.

It gets worse. If you completely eliminated the military, no Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, no defense budget whatsoever, we'd still have an annual deficit of approximately $900 billion. Think about that. The thing politicians argue about most could be entirely zeroed out and we'd still be adding nearly a trillion dollars to the national debt every year.

The structural problem is this. Total federal spending is roughly $6.8 trillion while revenue is only about $5 trillion. Just three categories, Social Security ($1.5T), Medicare/Medicaid ($1.6T), and interest on existing debt ($1T), consume nearly $4 trillion alone. That's more than our entire tax revenue before we spend a single dollar on defense, infrastructure, education, or anything else.

Here's what many people really don't understand about who we owe. The debt isn't primarily held by China or foreign adversaries. Foreign holders own about 23.5% of our debt, with China holding just 2.2% of the total. The vast majority is owned by domestic interests such as the Federal Reserve, American mutual funds and pension funds, banks, insurance companies, state and local governments, and Social Security trust funds. When we pay that $1+ trillion in annual interest, we're mostly transferring money from taxpayers to American asset holders, pension funds, 401ks, IRAs, and financial institutions.

This creates an impossible trap. We can't simply default on this debt. US Treasury bonds are the foundation of global finance, considered the world's safest asset. Every interest rate globally is priced off Treasury rates. A US default would trigger immediate economic apocalypse: pension funds would collapse, retirement accounts would evaporate, the dollar would lose reserve currency status, and the 2008 financial crisis would look mild by comparison. Defaulting to stick it to monied interests would devastate ordinary Americans whose retirement savings are in these "safe" investments.

The intergenerational injustice is profound. We're running up massive debts for current consumption and leaving the bill to future generations. By the time our great-grandchildren inherit this debt in 2125, it will be so woven into the financial system that they can't refuse to pay it without destroying their own economy. They'll be trapped, the debt too large to realistically pay off, but too catastrophic to default on. We're essentially robbing our descendants, and they'll have no choice but to service obligations created by our spending decisions.

This isn't a problem that can be solved by cutting any single area of spending or making any one policy change. It's structural and requires either massive entitlement reform, significant tax increases, or realistically both. These are political third rails that neither party wants to seriously address. The longer we wait, the deeper the hole gets and the more limited our options become.

What are your thoughts on realistic solutions? Or is this problem already beyond the point where democratic politics can address it?

There are many...many entities that the U.S. spends money on, and you want to cut the military. How about cutting all the handouts to illegals, how about cutting all the fraud.

 

[BackAgain]

I want to talk about the federal debt because I think most people fundamentally misunderstand the scale of the problem we're facing.

First, let's clarify basic terms that many people confuse. The federal deficit is how much more we spend than we take in each year. The national debt is the total accumulated amount we owe from all previous years combined. For fiscal year 2025, our deficit was approximately $1.8 trillion. Our total national debt is now over $36 trillion. Every year we run a deficit, it adds to that total debt, and we're now paying over $1 trillion annually just in interest on money we've already borrowed.

Here's the reality about military spending. Even the most dramatic cuts wouldn't solve this problem. If we completely withdrew from Europe and Asia, closed all 750+ overseas bases, and dramatically reduced our military presence globally, we might realistically save around $500 billion annually. That sounds enormous, and it is, but it would only reduce our annual deficit by roughly 25-30%. We'd still be running a deficit of $1.2-1.4 trillion every single year.

It gets worse. If you completely eliminated the military, no Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, no defense budget whatsoever, we'd still have an annual deficit of approximately $900 billion. Think about that. The thing politicians argue about most could be entirely zeroed out and we'd still be adding nearly a trillion dollars to the national debt every year.

The structural problem is this. Total federal spending is roughly $6.8 trillion while revenue is only about $5 trillion. Just three categories, Social Security ($1.5T), Medicare/Medicaid ($1.6T), and interest on existing debt ($1T), consume nearly $4 trillion alone. That's more than our entire tax revenue before we spend a single dollar on defense, infrastructure, education, or anything else.

Here's what many people really don't understand about who we owe. The debt isn't primarily held by China or foreign adversaries. Foreign holders own about 23.5% of our debt, with China holding just 2.2% of the total. The vast majority is owned by domestic interests such as the Federal Reserve, American mutual funds and pension funds, banks, insurance companies, state and local governments, and Social Security trust funds. When we pay that $1+ trillion in annual interest, we're mostly transferring money from taxpayers to American asset holders, pension funds, 401ks, IRAs, and financial institutions.

This creates an impossible trap. We can't simply default on this debt. US Treasury bonds are the foundation of global finance, considered the world's safest asset. Every interest rate globally is priced off Treasury rates. A US default would trigger immediate economic apocalypse: pension funds would collapse, retirement accounts would evaporate, the dollar would lose reserve currency status, and the 2008 financial crisis would look mild by comparison. Defaulting to stick it to monied interests would devastate ordinary Americans whose retirement savings are in these "safe" investments.

The intergenerational injustice is profound. We're running up massive debts for current consumption and leaving the bill to future generations. By the time our great-grandchildren inherit this debt in 2125, it will be so woven into the financial system that they can't refuse to pay it without destroying their own economy. They'll be trapped, the debt too large to realistically pay off, but too catastrophic to default on. We're essentially robbing our descendants, and they'll have no choice but to service obligations created by our spending decisions.

This isn't a problem that can be solved by cutting any single area of spending or making any one policy change. It's structural and requires either massive entitlement reform, significant tax increases, or realistically both. These are political third rails that neither party wants to seriously address. The longer we wait, the deeper the hole gets and the more limited our options become.

What are your thoughts on realistic solutions? Or is this problem already beyond the point where democratic politics can address it?

Now factor-in the unfunded mandates. I believe that amount (over and above the massive debt you are discussing) is as high as almost $200 Trillion MORE (including state and federal mandate amounts).

 

[candycorn]

LOL, enough. If we got rid of all foreign bases and zeroed the defense budget---We wouldn't have any debt at all because we'd be speaking Mandarin and working in re-education camps.

If that happens, It would be the first education you've ever gotten.

 

[candycorn]

There are many...many entities that the U.S. spends money on, and you want to cut the military. How about cutting all the handouts to illegals, how about cutting all the fraud.

DOGE looked at it. There wasn't that much fraud.

We want more government than we are willing to pay for.

 

[BackAgain]

If that happens, It would be the first education you've ever gotten.

Look at the moron ^ trying to talk about other people’s education and intellect.

Candyass failed out of kindergarten.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

I don't think there are any plans to fix it. They plan on sinking the currency and screwing the populace after they have all sacked the treasury. It will usher in a digital currency, one that will lead to a one world currency.

 

[Anomalism]

There are many...many entities that the U.S. spends money on, and you want to cut the military. How about cutting all the handouts to illegals, how about cutting all the fraud.

I didn't say I wanted to cut the military. You just misunderstood my point.

 

[my2¢]

The only way I see to begin to get out of the federal debit mess is to knock off the tax cuts and federal money give aways. As long as there are no repercussions to us taxpayers for runaway federal spending there is no reason for either political party to pursue fiscal responsibility. GHW Bush and Clinton took the matter seriously and for a short while at least there was hope regarding the annual deficit after Reagan's voodoo economics.

 

[Anomalism]

I don't think there are any plans to fix it. They plan on sinking the currency and screwing the populace after they have all sacked the treasury. It will usher in a digital currency, one that will lead to a one world currency.

If we default on that debt the societal implications will be profound. We're not screwing China. That's our social security and our Medicare.

It wouldn't just be the states either. The whole world would suffer catastrophically.

 

[HikerGuy83]

I want to talk about the federal debt because I think most people fundamentally misunderstand the scale of the problem we're facing.

First, let's clarify basic terms that many people confuse. The federal deficit is how much more we spend than we take in each year. The national debt is the total accumulated amount we owe from all previous years combined. For fiscal year 2025, our deficit was approximately $1.8 trillion. Our total national debt is now over $36 trillion. Every year we run a deficit, it adds to that total debt, and we're now paying over $1 trillion annually just in interest on money we've already borrowed.

Here's the reality about military spending. Even the most dramatic cuts wouldn't solve this problem. If we completely withdrew from Europe and Asia, closed all 750+ overseas bases, and dramatically reduced our military presence globally, we might realistically save around $500 billion annually. That sounds enormous, and it is, but it would only reduce our annual deficit by roughly 25-30%. We'd still be running a deficit of $1.2-1.4 trillion every single year.

It gets worse. If you completely eliminated the military, no Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, no defense budget whatsoever, we'd still have an annual deficit of approximately $900 billion. Think about that. The thing politicians argue about most could be entirely zeroed out and we'd still be adding nearly a trillion dollars to the national debt every year.

The structural problem is this. Total federal spending is roughly $6.8 trillion while revenue is only about $5 trillion. Just three categories, Social Security ($1.5T), Medicare/Medicaid ($1.6T), and interest on existing debt ($1T), consume nearly $4 trillion alone. That's more than our entire tax revenue before we spend a single dollar on defense, infrastructure, education, or anything else.

Here's what many people really don't understand about who we owe. The debt isn't primarily held by China or foreign adversaries. Foreign holders own about 23.5% of our debt, with China holding just 2.2% of the total. The vast majority is owned by domestic interests such as the Federal Reserve, American mutual funds and pension funds, banks, insurance companies, state and local governments, and Social Security trust funds. When we pay that $1+ trillion in annual interest, we're mostly transferring money from taxpayers to American asset holders, pension funds, 401ks, IRAs, and financial institutions.

This creates an impossible trap. We can't simply default on this debt. US Treasury bonds are the foundation of global finance, considered the world's safest asset. Every interest rate globally is priced off Treasury rates. A US default would trigger immediate economic apocalypse: pension funds would collapse, retirement accounts would evaporate, the dollar would lose reserve currency status, and the 2008 financial crisis would look mild by comparison. Defaulting to stick it to monied interests would devastate ordinary Americans whose retirement savings are in these "safe" investments.

The intergenerational injustice is profound. We're running up massive debts for current consumption and leaving the bill to future generations. By the time our great-grandchildren inherit this debt in 2125, it will be so woven into the financial system that they can't refuse to pay it without destroying their own economy. They'll be trapped, the debt too large to realistically pay off, but too catastrophic to default on. We're essentially robbing our descendants, and they'll have no choice but to service obligations created by our spending decisions.

This isn't a problem that can be solved by cutting any single area of spending or making any one policy change. It's structural and requires either massive entitlement reform, significant tax increases, or realistically both. These are political third rails that neither party wants to seriously address. The longer we wait, the deeper the hole gets and the more limited our options become.

What are your thoughts on realistic solutions? Or is this problem already beyond the point where democratic politics can address it?

I've posted on this and have a running tracker.

Thread '2025-2026 Deficit Tracking Thread.'

Nov 10, 2025

This thread will be used to report on a running (monthly if we can get it) basis....the deficit.

At the end of fiscal 2025, the deficit was revised down by 200 billion and some of that was attributed to the tariff revenue. I added that to my thread on the 2025 deficit.

This will be for something different.

As I said in my thread:


This has gotten way out of hand and we need to start kicking congress in the nuts to fix this and cut of their nuts off if they don't...

• HikerGuy83
• Replies: 48
• Forum: Congress

• 

We are in a difficult situation.

I will look for an article that came (out of Havard I believe....not that being from Harvard means much anymore) about 17 ways to kill the debt.

Trump has slowed the climb down (attributed to tarriffs which amount to a tax).

But it is our SPENDING that congress will not slow down.

 

[HikerGuy83]

If we default on that debt the societal implications will be profound. We're not screwing China. That's our social security and our Medicare.

Default won't b necessary.

Interest rates will be so high and capital so scarce the economy will disintegrate on it's own.

 

[22lcidw]

I want to talk about the federal debt because I think most people fundamentally misunderstand the scale of the problem we're facing.

First, let's clarify basic terms that many people confuse. The federal deficit is how much more we spend than we take in each year. The national debt is the total accumulated amount we owe from all previous years combined. For fiscal year 2025, our deficit was approximately $1.8 trillion. Our total national debt is now over $36 trillion. Every year we run a deficit, it adds to that total debt, and we're now paying over $1 trillion annually just in interest on money we've already borrowed.

Here's the reality about military spending. Even the most dramatic cuts wouldn't solve this problem. If we completely withdrew from Europe and Asia, closed all 750+ overseas bases, and dramatically reduced our military presence globally, we might realistically save around $500 billion annually. That sounds enormous, and it is, but it would only reduce our annual deficit by roughly 25-30%. We'd still be running a deficit of $1.2-1.4 trillion every single year.

It gets worse. If you completely eliminated the military, no Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, no defense budget whatsoever, we'd still have an annual deficit of approximately $900 billion. Think about that. The thing politicians argue about most could be entirely zeroed out and we'd still be adding nearly a trillion dollars to the national debt every year.

The structural problem is this. Total federal spending is roughly $6.8 trillion while revenue is only about $5 trillion. Just three categories, Social Security ($1.5T), Medicare/Medicaid ($1.6T), and interest on existing debt ($1T), consume nearly $4 trillion alone. That's more than our entire tax revenue before we spend a single dollar on defense, infrastructure, education, or anything else.

Here's what many people really don't understand about who we owe. The debt isn't primarily held by China or foreign adversaries. Foreign holders own about 23.5% of our debt, with China holding just 2.2% of the total. The vast majority is owned by domestic interests such as the Federal Reserve, American mutual funds and pension funds, banks, insurance companies, state and local governments, and Social Security trust funds. When we pay that $1+ trillion in annual interest, we're mostly transferring money from taxpayers to American asset holders, pension funds, 401ks, IRAs, and financial institutions.

This creates an impossible trap. We can't simply default on this debt. US Treasury bonds are the foundation of global finance, considered the world's safest asset. Every interest rate globally is priced off Treasury rates. A US default would trigger immediate economic apocalypse: pension funds would collapse, retirement accounts would evaporate, the dollar would lose reserve currency status, and the 2008 financial crisis would look mild by comparison. Defaulting to stick it to monied interests would devastate ordinary Americans whose retirement savings are in these "safe" investments.

The intergenerational injustice is profound. We're running up massive debts for current consumption and leaving the bill to future generations. By the time our great-grandchildren inherit this debt in 2125, it will be so woven into the financial system that they can't refuse to pay it without destroying their own economy. They'll be trapped, the debt too large to realistically pay off, but too catastrophic to default on. We're essentially robbing our descendants, and they'll have no choice but to service obligations created by our spending decisions.

This isn't a problem that can be solved by cutting any single area of spending or making any one policy change. It's structural and requires either massive entitlement reform, significant tax increases, or realistically both. These are political third rails that neither party wants to seriously address. The longer we wait, the deeper the hole gets and the more limited our options become.

What are your thoughts on realistic solutions? Or is this problem already beyond the point where democratic politics can address it?

When we go to high school we are not taught any of this. And what you typed is more complicated and difficult to understand. I know little of this. What is worse is most people know nothing of this. And it exists. And elites are rich from it, and this is centuries in the making. Winners and losers are made from whims. Massive world debts exist and never will be paid off. So logically there are people who will never live well.

 

[Thinker101]

DOGE looked at it. There wasn't that much fraud.

We want more government than we are willing to pay for.

No kidding, how much fraud is there in Minnesota. How much will be in California....dumbass.

 

[Concerned American]

The point is a discussion about the military doesn't fix the problem. Even if we didn't have one we're drowning in debt still.

Nothing new here. Paying off the debt is the only NOVEL approach that NOBODY is willing to talk about. It won't be easy, but until everyone tightens their belts and quits begging for free handouts, it will never happen. That is the ONLY solution. Anything else is just wringing your hands.

 

[Concerned American]

If that happens, It would be the first education you've ever gotten.

LOL, have another bon bon missy.

 

[candycorn]

The point is a discussion about the military doesn't fix the problem. Even if we didn't have one we're drowning in debt still.

A few thoughts

1. Zero based budgeting every 10 years to coincide with the midterm elections. 2030, 2040, 2050, etc.... No more "Interior got $18B last year so they get $18.2B this year...."
   • Every department submits a budget broken down into 5% of their total request. In other words, if Interior is going to request a $100M budget (for the sake of argument), they don't say, "Give us $100M and we will decide how to spend it.".
2. If it can't be broken down (Lets say for this new silly battle ship the blob wants to build), the bill is considered separately outside of the budget. Meaning that If our budget is $1T and theoretically balanced, any expenditure on this other track is out in the open. Representative Jane Doe has to have her name as the sponsor and whomever votes for it has to vote out in the open to support it. No more sacred cows acting as a fig-leaf for pork.
   • Put another way...You don't have a $500B defense bill. You have a budget that pays the troops, buys tanks bullets, bazookas, etc... But if the blob wants to build a separate battleship, it is voted on by itself. Representatives (and the President in this case) can't say, "I had to vote for the troops to get paid and the battleship was part of that bill...." Nope...it's a separate charge and you either voted for deficit spending or not.
3. Let the lawmakers get back to pork projects. If you want support to get rid of one of the 444 National Park units and save long term costs (I'm looking at you Harry S. Truman National Historic Site), you may have to approve the clean up of a wetland in Connecticut or a bridge in Montana. Short term costs; long term gain. Missouri can do a great job maintaining Truman's historical park if they want.

Just some ideas.

 

[initforme]

Perhaps a shrinking pupulation and workforce will help.