The Phantom's "Quick" Look at the Polls

[Foxfyre]

I scan over the RCP polls almost every day. And they do reflect current trends, but the RCP average has been several points off the final vote in the last several elections. And that is because they report the polls as published by the various organizations and make no effort to analyze them via demographics or any other manner of scientifically weighting the polls.

They were 3/10ths of a point off the 2008 election result.

You people need to man up and accept the reality. Romney is behind, period. He is not magically leading in defiance of dozens of polls.

He now needs not just to run the table on undecideds, he needs takeaways from Obama voters.

Do you have a link for that? They average all the polling results for all the polling organizations. I don't know how their averages came out, but RCP ranks the pollsters in the 2008 campaign like this:

2008 Intrade Vs. Actual Election Results

 

[JakeStarkey]

The spread of Intrade is too great, Foxfyre, to think that oversampling and RCP skews the spread significantly.

 

[Foxfyre]

RCP does no polling. It only reports and averages the polling done by others. It does not comment on and has no control over the methodology of either samples or the weighting of such polls.

Here is one of the problems that Newsbusters recently targeted at Quinnipac:

Quinnipiac Pollster Admits: ‘Probably Unlikely’ That Electorate Will Feature Massive Dem Skew
By Matthew Sheffield | September 26, 2012
Read more:
Quinnipiac Pollster Admits:

 

[JakeStarkey]

There is no quantitative evidence of any massive skewing of polling.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The polls 'skew' themselves towards the guy who's winning.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Why do you think your fantasies deserve a bump.

The RCP Averages state by state show Obama leading in every "Swing" state except North Carolina.

And that was before Romney totally stuck his foot in his mouth over Libya.

LOL Obama is now leading in NC.
Fantasy Boy also discounts PPP(D) which has kicked Rassmussen's ass from 2008 to present.

LOL - what an idiot.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Last time around it was "the Bradley Effect" that rendered the polls showing Obama's lead "useless."
This year it's "Over-sampled Democrats."

If these polls are so bad, how come they've been so much better than Rassmussen at predicting the eventual outcome????

They're starting to sound like cult leaders trying to explain why "Hale Bop" didn't destroy earth as predicted last night ...

 

[Foxfyre]

Last time around it was "the Bradley Effect" that rendered the polls showing Obama's lead "useless."
This year it's "Over-sampled Democrats."

If these polls are so bad, how come they've been so much better than Rassmussen at predicting the eventual outcome????

They're starting to sound like cult leaders trying to explain why "Hale Bop" didn't destroy earth as predicted last night ...

For the last several elections Rasmussen has led the pack in producing polls that most closely reflected the final vote.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Last time around it was "the Bradley Effect" that rendered the polls showing Obama's lead "useless."
This year it's "Over-sampled Democrats."

If these polls are so bad, how come they've been so much better than Rassmussen at predicting the eventual outcome????

They're starting to sound like cult leaders trying to explain why "Hale Bop" didn't destroy earth as predicted last night ...

For the last several elections Rasmussen has led the pack in producing polls that most closely reflected the final vote.

They've actually been bringing up the rear -

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com

The only study that produced a favorable analysis of Rassmussen polling in 2008 (none exist for any other election cycle) was conducted by a Fordham University political science professor who based his survey of polls on incomplete election totals. They claimed the "final" margin as Obama + 6.15% when his actual final margin was 7.3%. Once the actual numbers were finalized, Rassmussen was middle of the pack on nation-wide numbers for 2008. Their 2008 statewide numbers were horrible. and in 2010 ... they were aweful.

Check the record yourself ... don't take anyone else's word on it.

 

[Foxfyre]

Last time around it was "the Bradley Effect" that rendered the polls showing Obama's lead "useless."
This year it's "Over-sampled Democrats."

If these polls are so bad, how come they've been so much better than Rassmussen at predicting the eventual outcome????

They're starting to sound like cult leaders trying to explain why "Hale Bop" didn't destroy earth as predicted last night ...

For the last several elections Rasmussen has led the pack in producing polls that most closely reflected the final vote.

They've actually been bringing up the rear -

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com

The only study that produced a favorable analysis of Rassmussen polling in 2008 (none exist for any other election cycle) was conducted by a Fordham University political science professor who based his survey of polls on incomplete election totals. They claimed the "final" margin as Obama + 6.15% when his actual final margin was 7.3%. Once the actual numbers were finalized, Rassmussen was middle of the pack on nation-wide numbers for 2008. Their 2008 statewide numbers were horrible. and in 2010 ... they were aweful.

Check the record yourself ... don't take anyone else's word on it.

Did you know that Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight is partnered with Rasmussen? Which makes the article you cited rather curious. But anyway, the 2010 election was not a presidential election and I don't much pay attention to polls in the off years. Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2008 and I hope will be again in 2012.

 

[nodoginnafight]

For the last several elections Rasmussen has led the pack in producing polls that most closely reflected the final vote.

They've actually been bringing up the rear -

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com

The only study that produced a favorable analysis of Rassmussen polling in 2008 (none exist for any other election cycle) was conducted by a Fordham University political science professor who based his survey of polls on incomplete election totals. They claimed the "final" margin as Obama + 6.15% when his actual final margin was 7.3%. Once the actual numbers were finalized, Rassmussen was middle of the pack on nation-wide numbers for 2008. Their 2008 statewide numbers were horrible. and in 2010 ... they were aweful.

Check the record yourself ... don't take anyone else's word on it.

Did you know that Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight is partnered with Rasmussen? Which makes the article you cited rather curious. But anyway, the 2010 election was not a presidential election and I don't much pay attention to polls in the off years. Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2008 and I hope will be again in 2012.

No, Rassmussen was not the most accurate in 2008.

Final Results -- -- -- 52.9 45.6 Obama +7.3
RCP Average 10/29 - 11/3 -- -- 52.1 44.5 Obama +7.6
Marist 11/3 - 11/3 804 LV 4.0 52 43 Obama +9
Battleground (Lake)* 11/2 - 11/3 800 LV 3.5 52 47 Obama +5
Battleground (Tarrance)* 11/2 - 11/3 800 LV 3.5 50 48 Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports 11/1 - 11/3 3000 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 11/1 - 11/3 1201 LV 2.9 54 43 Obama +11
IBD/TIPP 11/1 - 11/3 981 LV 3.2 52 44 Obama +8
FOX News 11/1 - 11/2 971 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 11/1 - 11/2 1011 LV 3.1 51 43 Obama +8
Gallup 10/31 - 11/2 2472 LV 2.0 55 44 Obama +11
Diageo/Hotline 10/31 - 11/2 887 LV 3.3 50 45 Obama +5
CBS News 10/31 - 11/2 714 LV -- 51 42 Obama +9
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/30 - 11/2 760 LV 3.6 53 46 Obama +7
ABC News/Wash Post 10/30 - 11/2 2470 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
CNN/Opinion Research 10/30 - 11/1 714 LV 3.5 53 46 Obama +7
Pew Research 10/29 - 11/1 2587 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6
RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

You see Rassmussen missed the final results by 1.3
Five polls on this list did better.
In the state polling they were MUCH worse.
And if you want to hang your hat on Rassmussen, you are very wise to ignore 2010.

 

[Foxfyre]

They've actually been bringing up the rear -

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com

The only study that produced a favorable analysis of Rassmussen polling in 2008 (none exist for any other election cycle) was conducted by a Fordham University political science professor who based his survey of polls on incomplete election totals. They claimed the "final" margin as Obama + 6.15% when his actual final margin was 7.3%. Once the actual numbers were finalized, Rassmussen was middle of the pack on nation-wide numbers for 2008. Their 2008 statewide numbers were horrible. and in 2010 ... they were aweful.

Check the record yourself ... don't take anyone else's word on it.

Did you know that Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight is partnered with Rasmussen? Which makes the article you cited rather curious. But anyway, the 2010 election was not a presidential election and I don't much pay attention to polls in the off years. Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2008 and I hope will be again in 2012.

No, Rassmussen was not the most accurate in 2008.

Final Results -- -- -- 52.9 45.6 Obama +7.3
RCP Average 10/29 - 11/3 -- -- 52.1 44.5 Obama +7.6
Marist 11/3 - 11/3 804 LV 4.0 52 43 Obama +9
Battleground (Lake)* 11/2 - 11/3 800 LV 3.5 52 47 Obama +5
Battleground (Tarrance)* 11/2 - 11/3 800 LV 3.5 50 48 Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports 11/1 - 11/3 3000 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 11/1 - 11/3 1201 LV 2.9 54 43 Obama +11
IBD/TIPP 11/1 - 11/3 981 LV 3.2 52 44 Obama +8
FOX News 11/1 - 11/2 971 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 11/1 - 11/2 1011 LV 3.1 51 43 Obama +8
Gallup 10/31 - 11/2 2472 LV 2.0 55 44 Obama +11
Diageo/Hotline 10/31 - 11/2 887 LV 3.3 50 45 Obama +5
CBS News 10/31 - 11/2 714 LV -- 51 42 Obama +9
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/30 - 11/2 760 LV 3.6 53 46 Obama +7
ABC News/Wash Post 10/30 - 11/2 2470 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
CNN/Opinion Research 10/30 - 11/1 714 LV 3.5 53 46 Obama +7
Pew Research 10/29 - 11/1 2587 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6
RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

You see Rassmussen missed the final results by 1.3
Five polls on this list did better.
In the state polling they were MUCH worse.
And if you want to hang your hat on Rassmussen, you are very wise to ignore 2010.

Depends on who you ask I guess:

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

2008 Intrade Vs. Actual Election Results

Most Accurate Pollster in 2008: Rasmussen - Riehl World News

 

[NYcarbineer]

Rasmussen was not the most accurate pollster in 2008 but no matter how many times you prove it these demented sub-human creatures on the Right keep saying it.

How can people be like that? Bad upbringing?

Rasmussen is an outlier now because they are apparently working off the 2010 model for partisan sentiment in their Democrat/Republican mix,

even though it's not 2010.

 

[Foxfyre]

Please give your rationale for why any of the three studies I just posted would have any reason to favor Rasmussen? And why are you guys so determined to trash Rasmussen? Is it because you don't like the results he is posting? Seems to me he is telling it like it is, good or bad, for all candidates.

 

[NYcarbineer]

[
Depends on who you ask I guess:

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

]

For the one thousandth time, you should at least read your own retarded fucking links, you fucking retarded fuckwit!

This is from the above, VERBATIM:

"the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote."

The Fordham 'study' that all of you worthless fucks are hanging your duncecaps on USED THE WRONG NUMBER. Obama did not win by 6.2 points he won by 7.3 points.

Can you acknowledge that? And at least salvage some shred of dignity to attach to your otherwise worthless existence?

 

[nodoginnafight]

[
Depends on who you ask I guess:

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

]

For the one thousandth time, you should at least read your own retarded fucking links, you fucking retarded fuckwit!

This is from the above, VERBATIM:

"the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote."

The Fordham 'study' that all of you worthless fucks are hanging your duncecaps on USED THE WRONG NUMBER. Obama did not win by 6.2 points he won by 7.3 points.

Can you acknowledge that? And at least salvage some shred of dignity to attach to your otherwise worthless existence?

LOL - sorry NY, not laughing AT you. You are 100% correct. The Fordham poly sci professor's study based on incomplete returns is what they fling EVERYTIME. I've posted the inaccuracy a thousand times myself. And posted the actual numbers only to get "depends on who you talk to"

LOL the actual numbers do not depend on anyone's opinion., They are the actual numbers. I'm laughing because I feel your pain.

I think the real reason fantasy boy disappeared for so long as I flung numbers in his face until he couldn't argue anymore with a straight face. LOL.

 

[Foxfyre]

And in the RCP average, all the polls weren't conducted right up to the election either. Rave on guys. I'll stick with the pollsters who don't have an ax to grind if it's okay with you. And I'll allow you to consult whatever polls you wish to consult, okay? I would like for PB's fine thread here to not dissolve into another trollfest and/or juvenile food fight.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

And in the RCP average, all the polls weren't conducted right up to the election either. Rave on guys. I'll stick with the pollsters who don't have an ax to grind if it's okay with you. And I'll allow you to consult whatever polls you wish to consult, okay? I would like for PB's fine thread here to not dissolve into another trollfest and/or juvenile food fight.

It's true RCP uses other polls that are skewed to get it's poll average, which in turns gives it false ratings.

 

[nodoginnafight]

And in the RCP average, all the polls weren't conducted right up to the election either. Rave on guys. I'll stick with the pollsters who don't have an ax to grind if it's okay with you. And I'll allow you to consult whatever polls you wish to consult, okay? I would like for PB's fine thread here to not dissolve into another trollfest and/or juvenile food fight.

It's true RCP uses other polls that are skewed to get it's poll average, which in turns gives it false ratings.

which more accurately predict the actual outcome than any of the individual polls...
but that's just the actual numbers - without spin

 

[bigrebnc1775]

And in the RCP average, all the polls weren't conducted right up to the election either. Rave on guys. I'll stick with the pollsters who don't have an ax to grind if it's okay with you. And I'll allow you to consult whatever polls you wish to consult, okay? I would like for PB's fine thread here to not dissolve into another trollfest and/or juvenile food fight.

It's true RCP uses other polls that are skewed to get it's poll average, which in turns gives it false ratings.

which more accurately predict the actual outcome than any of the individual polls...
but that's just the actual numbers - without spin

Skewed polls predict the actual out come? You put all those skewed polls together you'll still have a skewed poll.