Well I suppose it depends on how you look at it. If I was on my old thread I would include all polls, but I am not using that standard anymore because I just don't have the time to crunch the numbers. The problem is that RCP is completely flooded with crap polls right now. PPP, Marist, FoxNews, WaPo...all total junk with horrible histories of accuracy. Go look at the previous thread and you will notice they have constantly been WAY above the baseline.
The only ones on RCP's Virginia capsule I would pay attention to right now are Quinnapiac and Rasmussen which would put the average at roughly Obama +2.5ish. I mean if I was performing a strict statistical analysis I would never look at it that way but I am not so I am granting myself some leeway here.
The main thing I would say is that people are really missing the point of the OP...basically...."just wait, Romney will close, and the polls are giving Obama more padding than is realistic"
I usually glance at Rasmussen every day and just note the polling trends reported by the media. I am guessing that far more important that the 'who do you favor' polls this far out from election day are recent polls that indiicate 22% of voters don't have a clear preference at this time, a full 60% of those who do have a preference are concerned whether their candidate is up to the job, and two thirds of voters think government is too big and does too much, and that has to have at least some affect on their vote.
As was the case in the Carter/Reagan campaign, the debates may actually make the difference this year.
The debates usually do have an impact and I think this year they will make all the difference in the world.
Obama stumbles when he has to think on his feet and Romney is very polished in that regard. And frankly all Romney has to do is keep sticking Obama on the economy (where Obama really has no realistic defense) and Romney will eat him alive in that venue.
See there's lots of elements in play right now.
1) People like Obama. They want to find a reason to vote for the guy because...they like him personally. But when the economy is shoved in their faces they really have to say "like him or not I won't go broke for the guy". Right now the media is playing defense for Obama and no one is talking about the issues that hurt him. That will change big time in the debates.
2) The RCP average is completely overrun with media polls and as well all know from my previous thread media polls are horrendously inaccurate. (yes even Fox. Fox is media and their accuracy sucks just like the rest of the media polls). Take yesterday's RCP polls. 21 total polls and about 12 of them were media.
YIKES!!!
3) The LV models now become an important issue. Each pollster uses a different LV formula to weight their data and those are closely guarded secrets because it's that data which contributes most to the accuracy of their projections. Now the recent historical norm has been 32% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 36% Independent. That will change from year to year depending on what is happening in the nation but it's going to be somewhere in that ballpark. So when you do some closer inspection and see an RV breakdown of 28% Republican, 38% Democrat, and 34% Independent and the weighting has only resulted in a 1% shift.....ok that LV model isn't just faulty, it's flat out dishonest.
4) More and more political parties now use polling agencies to influence the polls. We know this about PPP and Democracy Corps who do it for the Democrats and Resurgent Republic who does it for the Republicans, etc. They are usually pretty easy to spot because on RCP they will have a (D) or an (R) after their name...they are also usually the "professional pollsters" who are way out of line with everyone else.
But we are also seeing some "professional agencies" that are kind of hiding their identity. Project New America for example claims to be independent. Pffft....it's run by David Axelrod's son for God's sake, and they constantly show a HUGE Obama advantage over other pollsters. Give me a break. Who the fuck do they think they are kidding?
5) Political pressure is becoming a factor. Gallup is the only agency still using an RV model which as we know has an inherent liberal bias. Why? Is it because they recently got called onto the carpet by the administration when their results were starting to show good results for Romney? I will let you make up your own mind.
So what we have is a situation where media and political parties know good and well that polls are an avenue where they can influence voter perception and they are using it aggressively by flooding RCP with total shit. Again if I was working a statistical analysis like my last thread I would consider all those media polls and party affiliated polls, but right now I am not because they are simply muddying the waters; usually by innocent inefficiency but sometimes with corrupt intent.
Right now I am looking at Rasmussen, SUSA, Quinnapiac, Gallup (somewhat reluctantly because of their RV model), and there's a couple others I will kind of keep an eye on, but the rest are trash and I am pretty much ignoring them for now
