Keep in mind, odds and probabilities are only predictions. You could pick up a penny and flip it a hundred times and get heads a hundred times. There is nothing to say an event needs billions of instances to produce something. One may have been enough, or fifty. It is most likely there were pools with trillions of amino acids floating around, which are produced naturally in the universe, where countless interactions could have occurred to produce self-replicating life.
But the point is it could have happened with the first interaction as easily as the trillionth. It may have taken one day or a million years of chemical reactions, bonds, broken bonds, reformed bonds, over and over. It may have happened and that life died the same day. The reactions continued until it happened again. All is possible. The only thing we know is at least one of the events led to a never ending self-replicating single prokaryote cell with no nucleus, just chemicals in an enclosed reaction that replicates itself.
DNA says you need billions of instances to produce something other than what is coded. DNA would have to make a mistake, and not self correct as it is coded to do, and then make the
exact same mistake consistently, for millions of years to create new species. We would be walking on the bones of so many transitional missing links...
If you think DNA happened by chance then you don't understand the complexity of DNA. It is not
that there are amino acids floating around, it is that they find the
exact left handed ones that the code tells it to attach to, that you are leaving out of the scenario. All is not possible. DNA is specific. How would an amino acid know if it was right or left handed without a code to follow?
Take a working eye. Millions of optic nerves head from the brain toward the eye. Millions of optic nerves head from the eye, through the flesh to the optic center in the brain, where each one has to find it's match for the eye to see. Without a code for them to follow, sight would be a rare crap shoot.
And here is the icing on the evolution cake:
"To suppose that the eye with all it's inimitable contrivances for adjusting the focus to difference distances, for admitting different amounts of light, AND for the CORRECTION of spherical and chromatic aberration, could have been formed by chance, seems, I freely confess, ABSURD IN THE HIGHEST DEGREE." ~ Charles Darwin
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The hearing ear, and the seeing eye, the Lord hath made even both of them. Proverbs 20:12