The Media Fall for Phony 'Jobs' Claims

[Oddball]

Obama has already said he is not happy with the progress, so quit making up shit he "might" say and LISTEN for a change. Nobody really will know what the "calculations" are until the unemployment situation at least levels out, and then the job becomes a trackback. Even the WSJ knows that, as well as the Obama administration.

IOW, they can just make shit up and take credit for any good news that comes down the pike.

There's something we don't see every day.

 

[Skull Pilot]

So far it's better than voodoo economics, which your guys are still pushing. Just like the examples Annie posted (although I know he did that to point out how GWB was sooooo unjustifiably criticized), when the unemployment numbers came out and the BA touted to the public that it was bringing the numbers down on a regular basis, if you dug deep, you could find that (for example) some laid off engineer previously earning $100K per year needed to take two jobs to earn that much, and he probably got zero benefits because they were each "part-time."

The REASONS for layoffs during Bush's term were completely different from those today. Companies were laying off then to cut expenses and thereby be able to put more money into the pockets of their CEOs or invest in foreign ventures. This two-fer shit was commonplace to get that done. Now, however, people are being laid off because some of those same companies are actually going under for an entirely different set of economic problems, starting with the fact that their business credit lines no longer exist.

Just who are "my guys"?

Do you mean repudlicans?

i am not and never have been a repudlican.

So Obama must have "saved" my business because we're doing better than last year right?

I couldn't care less what you "call" yourself. You're part of the Limbaugh-esq cult who would be against anything Obama tried to do, ever. It's tit-for-tat politics--you bashed Bush, so we're gonna bash Obama. Waaaaah!!!!!!!!!! Fuck what might be good for the country as a whole.

i did my fair share of bush bashing as well.

there really is no difference between parties. under both government has become bigger, more expensive and more intrusive and our liberties are being whittled away.

And what is good for the country as a whole is not a debt that will be more than 80% of GDP

 

[Sinatra]

Just who are "my guys"?

Do you mean repudlicans?

i am not and never have been a repudlican.

So Obama must have "saved" my business because we're doing better than last year right?

I couldn't care less what you "call" yourself. You're part of the Limbaugh-esq cult who would be against anything Obama tried to do, ever. It's tit-for-tat politics--you bashed Bush, so we're gonna bash Obama. Waaaaah!!!!!!!!!! Fuck what might be good for the country as a whole.

i did my fair share of bush bashing as well.

there really is no difference between parties. under both government has become bigger, more expensive and more intrusive and our liberties are being whittled away.

And what is good for the country as a whole is not a debt that will be more than 80% of GDP

80% of GDP.

Good God Almighty.

People, stop tyring to defend this absolute fiscal disaster.

This President and this Congress are destroying America.

And that is not exaggeration - it is simple fact.

80% of GDP...

 

[Oddball]

80% of GDP.

Good God Almighty.

People, stop tyring to defend this absolute fiscal disaster.

This President and this Congress are destroying America.

And that is not exaggeration - it is simple fact.

80% of GDP...

Yeahbut...but...but....but.....but....

YOU GUYS!!!.....and GEORGE BOOOOOOOOOOSH!!!.....and the CORPORATIONS!!!....especially HALLIBURTON!!!....and Cheney, running the shadow gubmint in the basement of WAL-MART!!!

 

[KMAN]

A job is a job.

Oh, really??

Wasn't it the leftist hero, Bubba Clinton, who disparaged the jobs created during Poppy Bush's term as "burger flipper" jobs??

Yes, I believe it was.

Funny how those "burger flippers" should now fall to their knees in gratitude, now that the douchebag occupying the White House has a (D) by his name.

Amen brother... They bitched about burger flippers and now any job is a great job..

Everyday the left becomes bigger and bigger hypocrits... You would think they would actually care about hypocritical they are but I guess not... I would be embarrassed if I were them... but then again I have morals.

 

[pinqy]

And, BTW, how do we go about quantifying and calculating those mythical "saved jobs"???

Ask the Wall Street Journal. Surely they have the numbers to back up their theories. Or not.

What on Earth are you talking about? The article says there is no way of measuring how many jobs were "saved" (per the President's claims) so why should they say how it could be done? That's nonsensical.

The Obama administration has made claims about jobs "saved" and jobs "created." But how are they deriving those numbers when no statistical agency I know of has any method or explanation of how to measure that?

 

[Zoom-boing]

And, BTW, how do we go about quantifying and calculating those mythical "saved jobs"???

Ask the Wall Street Journal. Surely they have the numbers to back up their theories. Or not.

What on Earth are you talking about? The article says there is no way of measuring how many jobs were "saved" (per the President's claims) so why should they say how it could be done? That's nonsensical.

The Obama administration has made claims about jobs "saved" and jobs "created." But how are they deriving those numbers when no statistical agency I know of has any method or explanation of how to measure that?

They're pulling the numbers out of their ass. That's why the numbers are full of shit.

 

[edthecynic]

I couldn't care less what you "call" yourself. You're part of the Limbaugh-esq cult who would be against anything Obama tried to do, ever. It's tit-for-tat politics--you bashed Bush, so we're gonna bash Obama. Waaaaah!!!!!!!!!! Fuck what might be good for the country as a whole.

i did my fair share of bush bashing as well.

there really is no difference between parties. under both government has become bigger, more expensive and more intrusive and our liberties are being whittled away.

And what is good for the country as a whole is not a debt that will be more than 80% of GDP

80% of GDP.

Good God Almighty.

People, stop tyring to defend this absolute fiscal disaster.

This President and this Congress are destroying America.

And that is not exaggeration - it is simple fact.

80% of GDP...

"Seventeen trillion dollars worth of debt at the end of 10 years

Gee, to get that exaggerated debt figure Obama is assumed to be president for TEN years!!!

Now if you can project Obama's debt longer than he's in office, why can't you do the same with Bush??? After all, we will be paying for Bush's war follies for generations.

 

[MaggieMae]

Well can you at least tell us why Obama said that we must pass his stimulas bill because if we DIDN'T, unemployment numbers could hit 9%? I recall him saying if we passed his bill, then we could stop unemployment at 8%. Can you tell us why, since Congress PASSED his bill, unemployment is now at 9.4%? ( If you think this is bad, wait until the last minimum wage installment kicks in next month )

Oh I see, you want to quibble about the figure only. Picky picky picky. I don't recall Obama EVER giving any guarantees. But that's exactly what you people want: Instant results, instant gratification and of course since that's totally impossible for any THINKING person's rationale, you're happy as pigs in shit over the possibility of economic meltdown and continued high unemploymet. However, even as the economy and unemployment improves, you'll still be at it, so why do I even bother with you projectionists.

No.. We just wanted the fucker to be honest. If he didn't know what the hell he was doing he should have said so.

Do you know how to READ? There have been hundreds of economic analysts weighing in on this, all published FOR YOUR BENEFIT. If you choose to label Obama a fucker, and dishonest, then you're only advertising your own fucking ignorance.

Get educated:
FactCheck.org: Stimulus Bill Bravado

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

In the Feb. 9 press conference, Obama said: "And that is why the single most important part of this Economic Recovery and Reinvestment Plan is the fact that it will save or create up to 4 million jobs – because that's what America needs most right now."

The president, along with stimulus supporters, has made this claim several times, stating that the House bill would create either 3 million or 4 million jobs by the end of 2010. On Feb. 11, Congress agreed on compromise legislation, which is $20 billion to $40 billion less expensive than bills passed by the two chambers; Obama said that bill would create 3.5 million jobs. The numbers are based on projections made by several economists – but those economists aren't completely sure. They can't be. As we pointed out recently on The FactCheck Wire, economic modeling is relatively new, and largely untested, particularly with the kind of recession figures we’re seeing today. Obama would do better to say "could create" or "experts estimate," rather than making such a definitive claim.
...
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office gave a significant range in its job creation figures, saying that the bills would create anywhere from 1.2 million to 3.6 million jobs by the end of next year. Christina Romer, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, and Jared Bernstein, from Vice President Biden’s office, published a report in early January that said between 3.3 million and 4.1 million jobs would be created as the result of a slightly smaller recovery plan. But, they acknowledged, “[T]here is considerable uncertainty in our estimates: both the impact of the package on GDP and the relationship between higher GDP and job creation are hard to estimate precisely.” They called their range “reasonable.”

Yet another economist, Allen Sinai, founder of Decision Economics Inc, has said the stimulus could save 3 million to 4 million jobs as well. But, he told the New York Times, “I’m not sure I believe my own models. We’re in uncharted waters here.”

With several economists coming up with similar figures, Obama seems to be on fairly safe ground. Still, Nobel laureate economists can’t agree on whether the stimulus bill contains the right kind of measures to aid the crisis-plagued economy or how much help spending and tax relief will bring. Nor can the economists the president relies on present their projections with a high degree of certainty. Obama might be right about the job-creation ability of the plan, but it’s also possible the effect of the stimulus will be more in line with the low end of CBO’s range – or, in fact, it could have no effect at all.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs, the Republican Version

House Republican Leader John Boehner and Republican Whip Eric Cantor have repeatedly claimed that a GOP alternative stimulus plan would create “twice the jobs as the House Democrats’ plan at half the cost" – that's 6.2 million jobs, according to Boehner. Sounds even better, right? If only someone could be certain of that number.

The figure comes from the House Republicans’ own calculations. When we asked whether any independent economists endorsed the Republican claims, a spokesman for the Republican staff of the Ways & Means Committee produced none. CBO did not analyze the GOP's substitute, which failed by a vote of 170 - 266 on Jan. 28.

How did Republicans arrive at their 6.2 million figure? The Web site of Rep. Dave Camp, the ranking Republican member of the Committee on Ways & Means and a sponsor of the substitute, explains that the GOP's estimate is based on a 2007 paper by economists Christina and David Romer, a husband-wife team at the University of California, Berkeley.

Yep, that's the same Christina Romer who is now chair of Obama's Council of Economic Advisers. The Romers' analysis of tax changes since World War II concluded that "tax changes have very large effects" on the economy. Specifically, they said their data suggested that a "tax increase of one percent of GDP [gross domestic product] lowers real GDP by about three percent" or lower, but at least by 2.2 percent. Flipping the Romers' calculations, GOP staffers figured that a tax cut of 1 percent of GDP would produce growth of 2.2 percent. Then, using a different report (Christina Romer's analysis of Obama's plan), the Republicans further calculated that their own party's proposed cuts would yield 6.2 million jobs over two years.

Republicans point to Romer's position in Obama's administration, as if to prove their figures are justified. However, these aren't her calculations. Plus, the Romers stressed in that 2007 report that their estimates were larger than other economists had come up with and "are not highly precise." (Indeed, in the CBO’s analysis, which it says gives a range that "encompasses a majority of economists’ views," the nonpartisan group gives a high and low multiplier for several government measures; the tax cut multiplier ranges from 0.5 to 1.7.) More recently, Christina Romer, in a Jan. 9 paper estimating the effects of the Democratic plan, didn't use the 2.2 multiplier even though that meant a lower job estimate for the tax cuts in Obama's plan. Instead, she used a 1 percent multiplier.

We were unable to contact Romer directly, but a White House spokesperson told us the GOP analysis "makes a fundamental error" by assuming that added jobs from tax cuts would show up by the end of next year. "It fails to take into account the fact that tax changes affect the economy with delays," the spokesperson said. Actually, even if the 2.2 multiplier were correct, the number of jobs added due to the GOP's proposed tax cuts would be only 1.7 million by the end of next year, according to White House calculations. GOP leaders themselves acknowledged in a document detailing their calculations that any such projections "are largely speculative, and the conclusions are generally dictated by the assumptions made by the authors."

In other words, who knows? As macroeconomist Arnold Kling recently wrote, we'd have to construct alternate universes and try out different policies to see what effect tax cuts actually have in real life. Absent that, we're left with models that reflect economists' (or politicians') biases.

 

[MaggieMae]

Obama has already said he is not happy with the progress, so quit making up shit he "might" say and LISTEN for a change. Nobody really will know what the "calculations" are until the unemployment situation at least levels out, and then the job becomes a trackback. Even the WSJ knows that, as well as the Obama administration.

IOW, they can just make shit up and take credit for any good news that comes down the pike.

There's something we don't see every day.

Another one who would much rather listen to himself talk (or read his own profound opinions) than to actually do some research on a very complex subject. [Sigh...]

 

[MaggieMae]

I couldn't care less what you "call" yourself. You're part of the Limbaugh-esq cult who would be against anything Obama tried to do, ever. It's tit-for-tat politics--you bashed Bush, so we're gonna bash Obama. Waaaaah!!!!!!!!!! Fuck what might be good for the country as a whole.

i did my fair share of bush bashing as well.

there really is no difference between parties. under both government has become bigger, more expensive and more intrusive and our liberties are being whittled away.

And what is good for the country as a whole is not a debt that will be more than 80% of GDP

80% of GDP.

Good God Almighty.

People, stop tyring to defend this absolute fiscal disaster.

This President and this Congress are destroying America.

And that is not exaggeration - it is simple fact.

80% of GDP...

Where are your analytical websites ("facts") where I can look at that 80% projection? If you think I'm just going to take YOUR word for it, you must know that's only good for a big belly laugh.

 

[MaggieMae]

80% of GDP.

Good God Almighty.

People, stop tyring to defend this absolute fiscal disaster.

This President and this Congress are destroying America.

And that is not exaggeration - it is simple fact.

80% of GDP...

Yeahbut...but...but....but.....but....

YOU GUYS!!!.....and GEORGE BOOOOOOOOOOSH!!!.....and the CORPORATIONS!!!....especially HALLIBURTON!!!....and Cheney, running the shadow gubmint in the basement of WAL-MART!!!

Ain't tit-for-tat politicking fun? Awww, you bashed Boooooosh, now it's OUR turn to bash Oblamamamanlamamama. Nanner nanner nanner....

Grow the fuck up.

 

[MaggieMae]

A job is a job.

Oh, really??

Wasn't it the leftist hero, Bubba Clinton, who disparaged the jobs created during Poppy Bush's term as "burger flipper" jobs??

Yes, I believe it was.

Funny how those "burger flippers" should now fall to their knees in gratitude, now that the douchebag occupying the White House has a (D) by his name.

Amen brother... They bitched about burger flippers and now any job is a great job..

Everyday the left becomes bigger and bigger hypocrits... You would think they would actually care about hypocritical they are but I guess not... I would be embarrassed if I were them... but then again I have morals.

Still harping on that burger flippers bullshit, eh? Got any other intelligent talking points to share? I see you ignored my smackdown on the facts concerning those burgers. Why am I not surprised.

 

[Oddball]

Another one who would much rather listen to himself talk (or read his own profound opinions) than to actually do some research on a very complex subject. [Sigh...]

Another one who uses no analytical skills to see through the crap she links to, nor the boilerplate that comes off of her keyboard.

What the carnie barkers selling the "saved jobs" snake oil are doing is engaging in a pre-emptive session of post hoc ergo propter hoc.

If you need to wait for your information to come in to "prove" your effectiveness, then it's safe to say that you're just bullshitting your way around until something positive happens, so you can take credit for it.

Bot remocrats and depublicans do this all the time.

 

[Sinatra]

i did my fair share of bush bashing as well.

there really is no difference between parties. under both government has become bigger, more expensive and more intrusive and our liberties are being whittled away.

And what is good for the country as a whole is not a debt that will be more than 80% of GDP

80% of GDP.

Good God Almighty.

People, stop tyring to defend this absolute fiscal disaster.

This President and this Congress are destroying America.

And that is not exaggeration - it is simple fact.

80% of GDP...

Where are your analytical websites ("facts") where I can look at that 80% projection? If you think I'm just going to take YOUR word for it, you must know that's only good for a big belly laugh.

Think much lately?

PolitiFact | Judd Gregg says Obama's budget drives national debt to 80 percent of GDP


Obama Administration vs CBO fiscal forecast


GOOD GOD PEOPLE.

80% OF GDP.

THE UNITED STATES BECOMES A BANANA REPUBLIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[MaggieMae]

80% of GDP.

Good God Almighty.

People, stop tyring to defend this absolute fiscal disaster.

This President and this Congress are destroying America.

And that is not exaggeration - it is simple fact.

80% of GDP...

Where are your analytical websites ("facts") where I can look at that 80% projection? If you think I'm just going to take YOUR word for it, you must know that's only good for a big belly laugh.

Think much lately?

PolitiFact | Judd Gregg says Obama's budget drives national debt to 80 percent of GDP


Obama Administration vs CBO fiscal forecast


GOOD GOD PEOPLE.

80% OF GDP.

THE UNITED STATES BECOMES A BANANA REPUBLIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The OMB doesn't know how all the numbers will translate either. Read the FactCheck.org research, which covers it nicely--i.e., Judd Gregg also doesn't "know" -- nobody does, yet.

It still comes down to what would the deficit numbers and GDP look like had NOTHING been done? Tax cuts instead of stimulus? Sorry, but the size and the kind of tax cuts proposed by guys like Jim DeMint would also result in exploding deficits. But nobody here cares, because DeMint is a Republican.

 

[MaggieMae]

Another one who would much rather listen to himself talk (or read his own profound opinions) than to actually do some research on a very complex subject. [Sigh...]

Another one who uses no analytical skills to see through the crap she links to, nor the boilerplate that comes off of her keyboard.

What the carnie barkers selling the "saved jobs" snake oil are doing is engaging in a pre-emptive session of post hoc ergo propter hoc.

If you need to wait for your information to come in to "prove" your effectiveness, then it's safe to say that you're just bullshitting your way around until something positive happens, so you can take credit for it.

Bot remocrats and depublicans do this all the time.

Well since you enjoy the Boooooosh v. Obamalalama game so much, how many years were we asked to "stay the course" in Iraq as the costs thereof kept piling up when the PROJECTION initially was no more than $40 billion and take less than 3 months, and the investment would be defrayed by oil revenue? How many of you bought into THAT scenario, especially the part where Iraq would pay us back?

 

[Oddball]

Well since you enjoy the Boooooosh v. Obamalalama game so much, how many years were we asked to "stay the course" in Iraq as the costs thereof kept piling up when the PROJECTION initially was no more than $40 billion and take less than 3 months, and the investment would be defrayed by oil revenue? How many of you bought into THAT scenario, especially the part where Iraq would pay us back?

Irrelevant.....Non sequitur.

Deflecting from you team's bullshit to the other team's bullshit doesn't suddenly make your bullshit true.

 

[MaggieMae]

Well since you enjoy the Boooooosh v. Obamalalama game so much, how many years were we asked to "stay the course" in Iraq as the costs thereof kept piling up when the PROJECTION initially was no more than $40 billion and take less than 3 months, and the investment would be defrayed by oil revenue? How many of you bought into THAT scenario, especially the part where Iraq would pay us back?

Irrelevant.....Non sequitur.

Deflecting from you team's bullshit to the other team's bullshit doesn't suddenly make your bullshit true.

Your shit stinks too, pal.

 

[MaggieMae]

Non sequitur, Dude?

YOU GUYS!!!.....and GEORGE BOOOOOOOOOOSH!!!.....and the CORPORATIONS!!!....especially HALLIBURTON!!!....and Cheney, running the shadow gubmint in the basement of WAL-MART!!!