My money is still on Gavin to be the Democratic nominee.
The Booty-judge will always have a strong base of radical LGBT-Q and their "allies,"* along with non-radical gays who would vote for one of their own. That along with closer-to-normal Democrats who would think he's the best candidate.
Kamala the same among race-conscious blacks and guilty whites, but I doubt many, if any, more normal Democrats think she'd be the best.
Whatever small support Gavin has comes from Democrats who just want someone who can beat Trump's GOP successor if he can only get nominated. Of that group, the ones who are not supporting Newsom are waiting for someone better, more mainstream, and with some policy ideas that sound enough like Republican ideas to attract Dems who hate the direction the Dems are going, but have hated Reps all their lives.
You know . . . another Clinton, another Biden fake moderate.
If no such candidate emerges soon, Gavin can fill in that void. He's already showing chinks in the ideological armor on the Males in Girls' Sports issue, and the Transgenderization of Children issue.
*LGBT Ally = on the downlow, or very very curious and hoping that if they support those folks, one will give them a tumble.