June 30, 1999
"The US economy has been hard at work in the 1990s, delivering strong growth and job creation. This boom - the longest in peacetime history - has generated huge revenues, filling up the government's coffers.
Congress and the White House, meanwhile, agreed to cut back a bit on spending.
At the same time, the economy enjoyed little inflation and low interest rates, which helped paying the interest on the public debt.
All that created the current budget surplus, about $107bn this year, and the hope to cut down on debt.
The impact
Public finances in the US could now run in a virtuous circle. Paying back the debt reduces interest rate payments. This in turn makes it easier to pay back even more and so on - until the debt amounts to zero.
Once there is no debt anymore, taxes can be cut, and the government can spend its money on useful things like healthcare or education.
Interest rates are bound to come down too, as the government will not have to offer attractive rates anymore to compete with other people trying to raise money.
For the same reason, companies will find it easier to raise money, because investors will be looking for new places to invest.
Economists predict that the extra money will boost domestic saving and add to overall economic growth in the US.
Things that can go wrong
But let's return to the real world.
Mr Clinton's plans - and the official debt projections - work only if the economic situation does not change.
But what if ...
# today's fantastic growth rates collapse?
# the stockmarket falters?
# inflation rebounds and interest rates rise?
# unforeseen events force government to spend more?
#
Congress or a new president opt for tax cuts instead of debt repayments?"