The U.S. dollar has fallen at the fastest clip since 1973. Here's what that means.
Some global investors no longer expect the U.S. economy to outperform the rest of the world.
President Donald Trump wants the U.S. to increase its exports and lower its imports. Thanks to a historic decline in the value of the U.S. dollar, he may get his wish — but at a cost he may not have anticipated.
Over the past six months, the dollar has declined more than 10% compared with a basket of currencies from the U.S.’ major trading partners — something it has not done since 1973. Today, it sits at a three-year low.
The simplest explanation for the decline is that global investors now expect the U.S. economy to no longer outperform the rest of the world as a result of Trump’s tariffs and worsening fiscal issues. Even with U.S. stocks returning to record highs, the return on other countries’ equities has been even stronger. Meanwhile the return on lending to the U.S. is expected to decline as growth here slows.
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Many, including members of Trump’s own Cabinet, assumed his tariffs strategy would strengthen the value of the dollar relative to foreign currencies. The thinking behind it was that as American consumers began to purchase fewer foreign goods, those other countries’ currencies would weaken relative to the dollar.
Welcome to trump's economy. The wheels are coming off, perhaps slower than many predicted. I guess we are beginning to understand why the United States Constitution gives Congress, and not the president, power to levy tariffs. trump is using tariffs as a weapon, even a foreign policy weapon. That is not, and has never been, the purpose of tariffs. We are beginning to see the first signs of the damage his tariffs are doing to our economy. And it will NOT be an easy fix.
