The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows Harris leading by 7 percentage points in Nevada, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 3 points in Arizona, Michigan

[lafayette]

Both of those underestimated Trump's final vote totals.

DURR

... and are overestimating them this time.

 

[lafayette]

So an avg of several polls isn't better than an outlier?

Define an outlier. BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

 

[para bellum]

And are overstating the GOP this time. Watch.

I have no reason to think that is the case. If anything I would say they are understating the GOP.

Reason is polls are always weighted to the previous election, so Harris has a 4.5% baked in "correction".

That Bloomberg poll is a total outlier- no one else has Harris even close to those numbers.

 

[Independent thinker]

Well, Bloomberg News/Morning Consult reports Kamala a bit ahead of Trump, still mostly in the margin of error. I think she may win but does anyone think it is a slam dunk.

"The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows Harris leading by 7 percentage points in Nevada, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 3 points in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, and 2 points in North Carolina. The two are tied in Georgia.

Across the seven states, Harris is ahead by 3 percentage points among likely voters, a lead that is 2 points higher than last month.

In a sign of her recent momentum, some 47% of likely voters think she will win the election, regardless of whether they back her, compared with the roughly 40% who said Trump would win."

MSN

Three weeks time really sucks, doesn't it?

 

[lafayette]

I have no reason to think that is the case. If anything I would say they are understating the GOP.

Reason is polls are always weighted to the previous election, so Harris has a 4.5% baked in "correction".

That Bloomberg poll is a total outlier- no one else has Harris even close to those numbers.

No, she does not, and you are not a stat guy. Bloomberg is never an outlier.

 

[lafayette]

She is up today. We will see tomorrow.

 

[para bellum]

No, she does not, and you are not a stat guy. Bloomberg is never an outlier.

Wrong on all counts.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

... and are overestimating them this time.

Why do you feel that is the case?

 

[para bellum]

"Respondents are collected via quota sampling based on age, gender, education, and voter registration status. This weekly sample is weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, gender, education, race and ethnicity, marital status, parental status, home ownership, geographic region, and 2020 presidential vote choice.

Morning Consult weighting targets are obtained using high-quality,
up-to-date gold-standard government sources – including the Current Population Survey (CPS) and American Community Survey (ACS)."

https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/09/Tracking-the-2024-U.S.-Presidential-Election-%E2%80%93-Methodology-Review_240905.pdf?_gl=1*1w6b6fc*_gcl_au*MzE3MzQ4MTUwLjE3Mjk1NTA0MzcuMTcwNzYyMzM5MS4xNzI5NTUwNDM3LjE3Mjk1NTA0Mzc.

 

[Nostra]

Wrong on all counts.

View attachment 1029558

This Lafayette clown keeps getting his ass kicked in his own thread.

 

[lafayette]

The election is narrow, and the MAGA are wetting their pants.