The 2015 Israeli legislative (Knesset) election thread

[Jroc]

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With Ballots Counted, Netanyahu Scores Dramatic, Decisive Victory in Israeli Elections

With almost all the ballots counted for Israel’s general election held today, the ruling Likud party of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has scored a dramatic and decisive victory over the rival Zionist Union party

99% of votes have been counted from a total of 4,223,057 and Likud is in first place with 23.29 percent. Zionist Union is trailing far behind in second place with 18.76 percent, almost 5 percentage points behind Likud.

The results give Netanyahu 29 seats in Israel’s Knesset, a full 5 more than the Zionist Union with 24. The tally significantly exceeds exit poll results which showed the two parties in a dead heat.

The United Arab List is in third place at 10.95 percent or 14 seats, followed by the centrist Yesh Atid with 8.78 percent or 11 seats and Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu with 7.42 percent or 10 seats. Bayit Yehudi now holds 6.40 percent or 8 seats, Shas has 5.82 percent or 7 seats, Yisrael Beiteinu has 5.17 percent or 6 seats, and United Torah Judaism has 5.18 percent.

Meretz looks like it has barely passed the threshold at 3.90 percent or 4 seats, but Eli Yishai’s Yachad only has 2.98 percent and does not pass the electoral threshold

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With Ballots Counted Netanyahu Scores Dramatic Decisive Victory in Israeli Elections Jewish Israel News Algemeiner.com

 

[TemplarKormac]

UPDATE Likud regains one seat


Steve Linde @stevelinde
With 99% of votes in, Likud 30, Zionist Union 24, Joint List 14, Yesh Atid 11, Kulanu 10, Bennett 8, Shas 7, Liberman 6, UTJ 6, Meretz 4

 

[TemplarKormac]

Final seat projections:

Avi Mayer @AviMayer
Knesset seats based on 95% of votes: Likud 29, Zionist Union 24, Joint List 14, Yesh Atid 11, Kulanu 10, Jewish Home 8, Shas 7. (@Nehemia_G)

(cont.) Israel Beitenu 6, United Torah Judaism 6, Meretz 5, Yachad 0.

Interesting. What would a coalition look like?

Possibly 66 seats for Likud:

Likud: 29
Yisrael Beiteinu: 6
Jewish Home: 8
Shas: 7
UTJ: 6
Kulanu: 10

Make that 67....

 

[theliq]

....

With Ballots Counted, Netanyahu Scores Dramatic, Decisive Victory in Israeli Elections

With almost all the ballots counted for Israel’s general election held today, the ruling Likud party of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has scored a dramatic and decisive victory over the rival Zionist Union party

99% of votes have been counted from a total of 4,223,057 and Likud is in first place with 23.29 percent. Zionist Union is trailing far behind in second place with 18.76 percent, almost 5 percentage points behind Likud.

The results give Netanyahu 29 seats in Israel’s Knesset, a full 5 more than the Zionist Union with 24. The tally significantly exceeds exit poll results which showed the two parties in a dead heat.

The United Arab List is in third place at 10.95 percent or 14 seats, followed by the centrist Yesh Atid with 8.78 percent or 11 seats and Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu with 7.42 percent or 10 seats. Bayit Yehudi now holds 6.40 percent or 8 seats, Shas has 5.82 percent or 7 seats, Yisrael Beiteinu has 5.17 percent or 6 seats, and United Torah Judaism has 5.18 percent.

Meretz looks like it has barely passed the threshold at 3.90 percent or 4 seats, but Eli Yishai’s Yachad only has 2.98 percent and does not pass the electoral threshold

.

With Ballots Counted Netanyahu Scores Dramatic Decisive Victory in Israeli Elections Jewish Israel News Algemeiner.com

23.29% is not decisive at all.......all that means is 76.71% of Israelis don't want Likud or Not and Yarhoo at all....let the horse trading begin,I wonder who the Palestinian Arab parties(who have done exceptionally well) will support........this result is NOT yet finalized at all......anyhow 76.71 into 23.29 don't go.

 

[TemplarKormac]

UPDATE

Once again Likud loses that one seat.

Final tally is 29 to 24.

 

[TemplarKormac]

all that means is 76.71% of Israelis don't want Likud or Not and Yarhoo at all

You really don't understand how Israeli elections or politics work do you?

 

[TemplarKormac]

The Yachad fell just 12,000 votes short of passing the threshold.

 

[theliq]

all that means is 76.71% of Israelis don't want Likud or Not and Yarhoo at all

You really don't understand how Israeli elections or politics work do you?

Elections No Way......Politics Yes...steve........if this sort of figure was cast in Australia.....then Likud would never be in power.....just sayin but then therein lies the difference between real Democracy......and the Banana Republic of Israel but then Australia are far more sophisticated,modern and forward thinking................unlike Medieval Israel.

 

[Statistikhengst]

 

[theliq]

The Yachad fell just 12,000 votes short of passing the threshold.

Didn't the Palestinian parties do well...........Templar......considering...steve

 

[Statistikhengst]

 

[Statistikhengst]

Bibi is now in the better position to form a coalition. He outperformed the final week of polling and also the exit polls. We should note that he also outperformed polling from institutes that are generally very Likud-friendly.

 

[theliq]

View attachment 38070

Stats are the seats allocated by the number of votes....proportional representation or by districts/seats won ???????excuse my ignorance......would you have the statistics of votes for each party..steve

 

[Statistikhengst]

President Rivlin is calling for a Unity Government (aka Grand Coalition).

What would that mean exactly?

A grand coalition is where the two major parties are forced to combined in order to get to a ruling coalition. Now that Likud has done better than expected, it looks like that will not be necessary. Germany had a Grand Coalition from 2005-2009 and has one now as well.

 

[Statistikhengst]

View attachment 38070

Stats are the seats allocated by the number of votes....proportional representation or by districts/seats won ???????excuse my ignorance......would you have the statistics of votes for each party..steve

Proportional representation in the Knesset for all parties who make it over 3.25% of the national popular vote. Right now, Likud is at 23.26% of the entire national popular vote. 23.26% of 120 Knesset seats would technically be 28 seats, but because of the little bitty parties that didn't make it into the Knesset because they did not pass the 3.25% hurdle, then the votes of those who did are recalculated and so this is why Likud actually gets 29 seats. 96% of all votes are counted. I don't know if the 4% remaning also includes provisional ballots or not, but even so, this seat projection could change again.

 

[Lipush]

 

[gtopa1]

all that means is 76.71% of Israelis don't want Likud or Not and Yarhoo at all

You really don't understand how Israeli elections or politics work do you?

Elections No Way......Politics Yes...steve........if this sort of figure was cast in Australia.....then Likud would never be in power.....just sayin but then therein lies the difference between real Democracy......and the Banana Republic of Israel but then Australia are far more sophisticated,modern and forward thinking................unlike Medieval Israel.

Tell me the primary vote of Labour in the Qld election just gone? What sort of dill are you??

Greg

 

[Statistikhengst]

all that means is 76.71% of Israelis don't want Likud or Not and Yarhoo at all

You really don't understand how Israeli elections or politics work do you?

Elections No Way......Politics Yes...steve........if this sort of figure was cast in Australia.....then Likud would never be in power.....just sayin but then therein lies the difference between real Democracy......and the Banana Republic of Israel but then Australia are far more sophisticated,modern and forward thinking................unlike Medieval Israel.

Tell me the primary vote of Labour in the Qld election just gone? What sort of dill are you??

Greg

As in, pickle??

 

[theliq]

View attachment 38070

Stats are the seats allocated by the number of votes....proportional representation or by districts/seats won ???????excuse my ignorance......would you have the statistics of votes for each party..steve

Got them,

 

[Statistikhengst]

View attachment 38071

Apparently, there really are a number of votes to count. But that is unlikely to diminish Bibi's lead over the ZU.

The site states 68.37% voter turnout from 5,881,696 eligible voters, which makes for 4,017,235 votes cast, a historic record for Eretz Yisrael! If 4% of votes remain to be counted, then that comes to 160,700 votes or so.

However, when you add up the totals of all the parties that made it into the Knesset, currently, we are at: 3,440,316 votes. Let's assume for fun that all of those votes yet to be counted will go to parties that made it into the Knesset - just as an exercise, nothing more.

4,017,235 -160,700 - 3,440,316 = 416,219

This means that the five small parties that did not make it into the Knesset got around 416,216 votes, or 10.36% combined, a perfect 5 way average would be 2.07% per splitter party, which sounds about right. That of course does not include any ballots that may be invalidated for any party. I assume that Yachad was just below 3.25%, perhaps another party as well, and so the remaining 3 parties were probably decisively under 2%, but this means in clear-text that the wishes of 10% of those who voted yesterday will not be fullfilled. That is, however, the system, which is supposed to be a deterrence to miniscule parties.


Just for fun:

In terms of the 4,017,235 votes cast, were we to compare the total raw votes to the US, then the number of votes cast yesterday in Israel would be just slightly more than the raw votes cast in the state of Georgia in the last US Presidential election (3,908,369, 2012), but in terms of voter turnout percentage, Israel would be between Maryland (67.3%) and Maine (69.3%). In terms of total population, were Israel a state within the USA (Israel has 8.3 million residents), it would be pretty much exactly the size of the state of Virginia and would have around 13 EV.


PS: I will be updating figures maybe on Friday, barring any surprise developments.