The 2015 Israeli legislative (Knesset) election thread

[Statistikhengst]

Hmm, I think I got them confused with Yisrael Beytenu. They have 5 seats, and looks like a candidate to ally with the Likud.

That's Lieberman's party.

I would say they're more likely to side with Likud, sure. But it's not a given.

Doc. Do they have a winner or don't they? What is the last report in?

The official results won't be released until Thursday, I think - and after that, we'll have to see who can build a coalition. We won't know who will be PM for at least a few days.

All the pundits iv'e heard have said its a victory for Bibi. Methinks you're in denial.

You're welcome to believe whatever pundits you like, if it makes things simpler for you.

I'll stick with reality, though.

Voter turnout, according to the JP, was 71.3%, 4 points more than in 2013.

Right now, it is still Likud 27 / Zionist Camp 27 - a tie. But indeed, those are only exit polls.

Bibi is declaring victory way too early, and he should know better than this, for in one cycle his party actually had less deats, but Livni, who got first crack at coalition-building, failed, and so he, Netanyahu, got a crack at it and succeed in spite of the fact that Likud had less seats that Lipni that year. So, based on this, Bibi should be making no assumptions at all. The arab party is sitting there with about 13 seats..... third largest party in the Knesset.... no sure if anyone wants to make a coalition with them, but it is a mathematical possibility.

 

[Synthaholic]

What are the important domestic issues playing out in this election?

Property taxes and pocketbook issues. On the CBS Evening News last night they were talking to a young couple in Israel who were saying that if Bibi wins they will likely move out of Israel, as they can no longer afford their apartment, and that Bibi is only concerned with National Security.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Are you sure about the Arab List have 17? Everything I'm reading says 13.

 

[BullKurtz]

That I can agree with. But I think that some of the posters in this thread think that Bibi has already been re-elected PM.

He has according to the exit polls, polls Barry's henchman can't rig or throw votes in the river or a car trunk or count when the voter's name is D.Duck or Bullwinkle or John Wilkes Booth....Cons win FAIR elections and they did again today.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Are you sure about the Arab List have 17? Everything I'm reading says 13.

Excuse me, that was a typo and I have corrected it.

 

[Statistikhengst]

So, going back full circle to a quote from the OP:

When the polls close at 22:00, Israeli news is likely to start publishing preliminary results. Be very careful of interpreting prelims. There will still be votes to be counted. And in terms of a possibly very thin margin for one "list" or the other, the actual coalition-building that ensues may take some days.

The threshhold for any party to get into the Knesset is 3.25% of the total national vote. This means that the little parties have to hoof-it to get to 3.25%, otherwise, they fall out of the Knesset seat statistic.

Yes, those words were prophetic...

 

[theDoctorisIn]

That I can agree with. But I think that some of the posters in this thread think that Bibi has already been re-elected PM.

He has according to the exit polls, polls Barry's henchman can't rig or throw votes in the river or a car trunk or count when the voter's name is D.Duck or Bullwinkle or John Wilkes Booth....Cons win FAIR elections and they did again today.

No, he hasn't. According to exit polls, Likud has won 27 or 28 seats.

Bibi has to form a 61+ seat coalition to hold on as PM.

 

[Statistikhengst]

That I can agree with. But I think that some of the posters in this thread think that Bibi has already been re-elected PM.

He has according to the exit polls, polls Barry's henchman can't rig or throw votes in the river or a car trunk or count when the voter's name is D.Duck or Bullwinkle or John Wilkes Booth....Cons win FAIR elections and they did again today.

You do understand that exit polls are not the actual votes, right? For if the 2004 US Presidential election would have been decided based on exit polls, John Kerry would have won. You do realize this, right?

 

[SassyIrishLass]

That I can agree with. But I think that some of the posters in this thread think that Bibi has already been re-elected PM.

He has according to the exit polls, polls Barry's henchman can't rig or throw votes in the river or a car trunk or count when the voter's name is D.Duck or Bullwinkle or John Wilkes Booth....Cons win FAIR elections and they did again today.

No, he hasn't. According to exit polls, Likud has won 27 or 28 seats.

Bibi has to form a 61+ seat coalition to hold on as PM.

Strange, every source in Israel is saying Bibi has won while every left loon site in the US is saying "It's too close to call!!!!!"

Sounds like a sad case of the denials

 

[BullKurtz]

No, he hasn't. According to exit polls, Likud has won 27 or 28 seats.

Bibi has to form a 61+ seat coalition to hold on as PM.

With all the expertise in Israeli politics you've gathered in your 30 years of living, I'd think you'd know a tie or narrow loss goes to Bibi because the majority of minor parties are far right-wing groups This is why he told the press there would be no deal with HAMAS...that cemented his coalition.

 

[tinydancer]

Awesome voter turnout. We should really be ashamed of ourselves over here that so many refuse to participate in the greatest show of love for country and appreciation of our citizenship.

Pity.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

No, he hasn't. According to exit polls, Likud has won 27 or 28 seats.

Bibi has to form a 61+ seat coalition to hold on as PM.

With all the expertise in Israeli politics you've gathered in your 30 years of living, I'd think you'd know a tie or narrow loss goes to Bibi because the majority of minor parties are far right-wing groups This is why he told the press there would be no deal with HAMAS...that cemented his coalition.

Channel 10's exit polls:

Zionist Union with 27.
Likud with 27.
Joint Arab List with 13.,
Yesh Atid with 11.
Bayit Yehudi with 8.
Kulanu with 10.
Shas with 7.
United Torah Judaism with 7.
Meretz with 5.
Yisrael Beytenu with 5.
Yahad failing to pass the electoral threshold.

Show me how you think Likud gets to 61.

 

[BullKurtz]

You do understand that exit polls are not the actual votes, right? For if the 2004 US Presidential election would have been decided based on exit polls, John Kerry would have won. You do realize this, right?

Oh I understand all kinds of things...especially about you and your past behavior elsewhere. As to politics here or in Israel you don't know your ass from a hole in the ground.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Awesome voter turnout. We should really be ashamed of ourselves over here that so many refuse to participate in the greatest show of love for country and appreciation of our citizenship.

Pity.

Maybe if we had an Iran next door, enemies surrounding us and our survival depended on strong leadership we would have a larger turnout

 

[Statistikhengst]

That I can agree with. But I think that some of the posters in this thread think that Bibi has already been re-elected PM.

He has according to the exit polls, polls Barry's henchman can't rig or throw votes in the river or a car trunk or count when the voter's name is D.Duck or Bullwinkle or John Wilkes Booth....Cons win FAIR elections and they did again today.

No, he hasn't. According to exit polls, Likud has won 27 or 28 seats.

Bibi has to form a 61+ seat coalition to hold on as PM.

Strange, every source in Israel is saying Bibi has won while every left loon site in the US is saying "It's too close to call!!!!!"

Sounds like a sad case of the denials

No, it is called factual reality.

Exit polls put Likud and Zionist Union neck and neck Yahad below electoral threshold - Israel election 2015 - Israel News Haaretz

Counting of the ballots began immediately after the polls closed at 10 P.M. and will continue throughout the night. Provisional results are expected to be available early Wednesday morning, though it could take until Friday until official results are published.

So, what part of "count the votes first" do you not understand?

 

[BullKurtz]

Channel 10's exit polls:

Zionist Union with 27.
Likud with 27.
Joint Arab List with 13.,
Yesh Atid with 11.
Bayit Yehudi with 8.
Kulanu with 10.
Shas with 7.
United Torah Judaism with 7.
Meretz with 5.
Yisrael Beytenu with 5.
Yahad failing to pass the electoral threshold.

Show me how you think Likud gets to 61.

Sorry, you've shown yourself be a leftist hack and I don't believe a number or word you say.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

It's Bibi....

Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. on Tuesday and Israeli citizens headed for the ballots to vote for Israel’s 20th Knesset. Polls from the end of last week had left options open for a tight race. The TV exit polls were published at 10 p.m., as polling stations closed, after which official results began to roll in. The official final results won’t be publicized until Thursday.

Netanyahu, vying for the role for his fourth time (third consecutively), had made a last-ditch attempt over the past days to win back voters mainly from the right-wing bloc, vowing Monday night to block a Palestinian state should he remain in office.

Unlike years past, analysts had said the race between Likud and Zionist Union, the two leading factions, was too close to call with confidence, but the exit polls showed Netanyahu clearly better placed to build the next coalition.

The Times of Israel is bringing you updates throughout Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

Netanyahu declares victory but Herzog in no hurry to concede The Times of Israel

 

[TemplarKormac]

Channel 1 is claiming that Yachad will pass the threshold. Interesting.

 

[Preacher]

Hope Zionist Union can pull it off. For a more peaceful Israel and ME in general. Netanyahu reminds me of a rogue general that thinks he is above everyone and can do what he wants. That power has gone to his head.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Channel 10's exit polls:

Zionist Union with 27.
Likud with 27.
Joint Arab List with 13.,
Yesh Atid with 11.
Bayit Yehudi with 8.
Kulanu with 10.
Shas with 7.
United Torah Judaism with 7.
Meretz with 5.
Yisrael Beytenu with 5.
Yahad failing to pass the electoral threshold.

Show me how you think Likud gets to 61.

Sorry, you've shown yourself be a leftist hack and I don't believe a number or word you say.

As I've already said, I could not possibly give less of shit about what you "believe". Whatever makes you feel better.