That's why... US-Turkey deepen cooperation.

[ekrem]

The heading of this thread is off course the US centrist wish.
In this thread i will try to explain what will happen in the next years within the Muslim world and USA position within this geography.

First, fact-finding. We will look how Turkey progressed after 2003, where due to damage between Bush government and Erdogan government relations of both countries have been put to a freezy low-level autopilot mode.

According to Germany's biggest bank, the "Deutsche Bank", these datas can be given in regardance to Turkey:
1. Foreign Trade:
2003: 116,4 Billion $
2008: 334,5 Billion $
almost triplication in 6 years.

2. Public Debt in % of GDP:
2003: 79,8%
2008: 49 %
a 30,8% decrease within 6 years.

3. Share of Foreign debt between 2.
2003: 23,4 %
2008: 16,5%
http://www.dbresearch.de/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?keiYears=all&regionid=REGI0000000000000138&rwdspl=0&rwnode=CIB_INTERNET_EN-PROD$RSNN0000000000020149&rwobj=kei.Start.class&rwsite=CIB_INTERNET_EN-PROD

I mention these datas because people tend to hold tight on pictures to a thing (in this case Turkey) which was saved in the brain when that thing was of importance.
And I know, that from people who do not follow Turkey, the pictures of Turkey were shot/saved in 2003. The "bad Turks gave us a rejection"-psychology. The world moves on.

What will happen till 2020?
"The Economist"-magazine in its "Foresight 2020"-study predicts Turkey will grow annualy 4,4% in that period to 2020. The USA will grow 2,9%, Germany and France each 1,9% annualy till 2020.
The same study says, that Turkey will contribute to worldwide growth with a share of 1,3% till 2020. That is more then Japan with 1,1% and close to France with 1,5%. The USA will contribute with 15,9% and China with 26,7% to total worldwide economic growth till 2020.

The study hosted on the Sabanci University sub-page for "Competitiveness Forum":
http://ref.advancity.net/En/Moduller/Makaleler/MakaleForm.aspx?KodAl=0&mdId=300

By 2020 Turkey will be ascenting into the Top-10 economies, as Stratfor founder George Friedman says:
MINA Breaking News - US Expert: Turkey will 'rule' former Ottoman territories by 2040

Conclusion
1. Turkey is growing, will grow further
2. rapidly increasing its foreign trade (=interaction with the world)
3. decreasing public debt
4. decreasing share of external debt within public debt (=decreasing potential of pressure against Turkish government by foreign lenders)


The period before 2003
Turkish relevance for USA was Pentagon centrist. Turkey was relevant for geostrategy and military reasons. There was zero interaction on cultural front, and near to zero interaction on economical/trade front.
Turkey was mentioned in Washington only when USA did want something from Turkey either geopolitically or militarily. If Washington wanted something, it wanted it immediately and took the cooperation from Ankara for granted. We contributed to every US military adventure when contribution was asked for.

The year 2003
The juristification of the Iraq war and its connection to 9/11 was falsified. Turkey did neither participate nor let US troops use Turkish territory as a logistical built-up for the war. Naturally, this complicated Bush's life and everything that led to the failure of the US "Greater Middle East", its "Axis of Evil" is connected to non-Turkish participation in these adventures. Turkish backing and military contribution would have made Bush strategy a success and USA would have dealt its interests with Iran and Syria militarily. The relations have been frozen to a low-level autopilot mode, Turkey concentrated mainly on economic progression and Bush used his gun to shoot the US image and US soft-power.

The new administration is keen to show that it has taken the right conclusions in regardance to Turkey. And, it does not matter if Democrat or Republican, as John McCain would also have showed same motivation to improve relations with Turkey.

John McCain during election campaign:

Turkey is one of America's most important allies: it is a thriving and progressive Muslim democracy that provides a model for other states struggling with reform and modernization. It is a critical member of NATO that has anchored the stability of Europe's southern flank for six decades. It is a front-line state on Europe's border with the Middle East, giving Turkey today a role akin to West Germany during the Cold War, and it shares a border with Iraq, making it key to stability there. As a maturing democracy, however, Washington will have to get use to voices in Ankara that do not always agree with us. Turkey will no longer be a predictable "yes, sir" partner to the United States. But if we work hard at our relationship, Turkey can become an indispensable cornerstone to a new Middle East.

I was disappointed that many in Congress were ready to legislate a historical judgment of the Armenian genocide whatever the cost to our relations with Turkey. Soon after failing to defund the war in Iraq, they could gravely imperil the pivotal role Turkey plays in supplying American forces in Iraq. Turkey is essential to stabilizing Iraq, containing Iranian power, and encouraging economic and political reform in the Arab world. We should be strengthening our partnership, not erecting new barriers to it. Ankara has an equal responsibility to the judgment of history with respect to the events of 1915 and to the project for a new Iraq today. A unilateral, large-scale Turkish military intervention would destabilize northern Iraq and spur the fragmentation Turkey wishes to avoid. At the same time, we must work seriously to rein in PKK terrorism that is a legitimate concern of Turkey.

http://www.johnmccain.com/informing/news/pressreleases/55906246-b33a-4f7e-bce5-063a79528eca.htm

The Obama visit in Turkey follows the Hillary Clinto visit. Actually, Obama's visit in Turkey is his 2nd real state visit after Canada.
Obama was dureing this week in Strassburg (France) and Baden-Baden (Germany). These were no visits in the protocoll of state-visit, as otherwise Obama would have gobe to Berlin and Paris.
Strassburg and Baden-Baden co-hosted the 60th anniversary meeting of NATO-alliance. So this was a NATO purposed visit to Germany and France.
After that Obama visited Prague (Chechia). The Chechs currently have the EU presidency and in Prague was hosted the EU-USA summit. Obama was also in London, there was the G-20 meeting.

Obama visiting Turkey is not connected to a purpose related to an multilateral summit. This visit is a state visit, and Obama accordingly spent his first day in Turkey in the political capital Ankara. The 2nd he is in Istanbul.
Obama showed great commitment to Ankara, he met also with every opposition party. Obama did also address Turkish parliament.
For Turkey an US president addressing Turkish people via Turkish parliament is nothing normal.

Full text of the US president's speech at Turkish Parliament
Full text of the US president's speech at Turkish Parliament

Some people have asked me if I chose to continue my travels to Ankara and Istanbul to send a message. My answer is simple: Evet. Turkey is a critical ally. Turkey is an important part of Europe. And Turkey and the United States must stand together – and work together – to overcome the challenges of our time.
(...)

That is self-explanatory.

Obama said also to improve US-Turkish trade relations. Current foreign trade stands just at +- 15 Billion $, which is a joke.
The whole Obama visit is a Bush-era damage control visit and a commitment to open a new chapter in relations, not only from Pentagon centrist view. Accordingly the meetings in Ankara did not involve the Defence Minister or the Turkish General Staff.
I do also not think that USA did requested any kind of things from Turkey, this is more a visit to revive the relationship, to listen to Turkey and show that USA will not sustain low-level autopilot mode which might let Turkey depart from transatlantic community.

Accordingly, Turkey got out of the NATO-meeting in Strassburg and Baden-Baden a more influential role within NATO. Turkey gets the following posts within NATO:
- NATO's deputy secretary-general
- deputy assistant secretary-general for arms control
- special envoy for Afghanistan
- Turkish officers receiving key positions in the alliance's military command structure
single - The Jamestown Foundation[tt_news]=34820&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=218c41dc58
Turkey is the big winner of the NATO summit.

Stratfor analyzing what USA got from NATO, G-20 and EU meetings:

(...)
Later at the NATO meeting, the Europeans — including Germany — declined to send substantial forces to Afghanistan. Instead, they designated a token force of 5,000, most of whom are scheduled to be in Afghanistan only until the August elections there, and few of whom actually would be engaged in combat operations. This is far below what Obama had been hoping for when he began his presidency.
(...)
Overall, the G-20 and the NATO meetings did not produce significant breakthroughs. Rather than pushing hard on issues or trading concessions — such as accepting Germany’s unwillingness to increase its stimulus package in return for more troops in Afghanistan — the United States failed to press or bargain. It preferred to appear as part of a consensus rather than appear isolated. The United States systematically avoided any appearance of disagreement.
(...)
From the American point of view, Europe is a lost cause since internally it cannot find a common position and its heavyweights are bound by their relationship with Russia. It cannot agree on economic policy, nor do its economic interests coincide with those of the United States, at least insofar as Germany is concerned. As far as Russia is concerned, Germany and Europe are locked in by their dependence on Russian natural gas. The U.S.-European relationship thus is torn apart not by personalities, but by fundamental economic and military realities. No amount of talking will solve that problem.
(...)
Why Turkey wants to be an EU member is not always obvious to us, but they do want membership. Obama is trying to show the Turks that he can deliver for them. He reiterated — if not laid it on even more heavily — all of this in his speech in Ankara. Obama laid out the U.S. position as one that recognized the tough geopolitical position Turkey is in and the leader that Turkey is becoming, and also recognized the commonalities between Washington and Ankara. This was exactly what Turkey wanted to hear.
(...)
The Caucasus is far from the only area to discuss. Talks will be held about blocking Iran in Iraq, U.S. relations with Syria and Syrian talks with Israel, and Central Asia, where both countries have interests. But the most important message to the Europeans will be that Europe is where you go for photo opportunities, but Turkey is where you go to do the business of geopolitics. It is unlikely that the Germans and French will get it. Their sense of what is happening in the world is utterly Eurocentric. But the Central Europeans, on the frontier with Russia and feeling quite put out by the German position on their banks, certainly do get it.
(...)
Obama gave the Europeans a pass for political reasons, and because arguing with the Europeans simply won’t yield benefits. But the key to the trip is what he gets out of Turkey — and whether in his speech to the civilizations, he can draw some of the venom out of the Islamic world by showing alignment with the largest economy among Muslim states, Turkey.

Obama's Strategy and the Summits | STRATFOR


A further analysis

What Obama wants is the sort of alliance that Bush and Cheney thought they could muscle Turkey into in 2003, when they insisted on Turkish involvement in the invasion of Iraq. The strategists who miscalculated so badly about what would happen if they toppled Saddam left one of the most advanced divisions in the US Army bobbing off the coast of Turkey for weeks, waiting for a passage that would never come.

Obama seems to see Turkey, which has friendly relations with Israel, as potentially a much stronger partner than any other NATO nation, perhaps even Britain.

Turkey is arguably the most powerful militarily and the most balanced economically in the Islamic world, and perhaps the most stable. And unlike Saudi Arabia, it hasn't had a vested interest in feeding and off-loading homegrown jihadists to wreak havoc elsewhere in the world.

In the new emerging Obama conception of geopolitics, it may be that it is Turkey, strategically situated on the Bosporus, which provides even more needed help with the newer crises of Afghanistan and Pakistan and the traditional crises of the Middle East, as well as a watchful counterweight to Russia.

As for the European Union summit, well, it provided a great opportunity for Obama to make a big speech in Prague about the need to sharply reduce nuclear weapons, something his administration has begun to negotiate with Moscow with the expectation of a deal by the end of the year. But the Europeans, in part because of Britain's objections, didn't even follow through on their own suggestion at the G-20 summit a few days ago in London that a new regime of centralized financial regulation be implemented.

None of this is surprising. NATO existed to block the Soviet Union from a feared invasion of Western Europe. That mission was accomplished nearly two decades ago. NATO has never before operated outside of Europe, and, with the arguable exception of dealing with crises in the Balkans, has been a totally self-interested security alliance.

It's good that Obama got what he got from NATO, which is more than the previous administration accomplished. But it's clear that if America is to have a powerful, stable ally besides Britain in South Asia and the Middle East, that will be Turkey.

William Bradley: Turkey: Not the Usual Geopolitical Sandwich

 

[ekrem]

We will have to wait whether Turkey will fully align with USA in geopolitics. Such an alignment would act as a catalysator to US power projection. Not only could the US take advantage of Turkish dilomacy and Turkish soft-power throughout the region, but practical advantage of the Turkish war machine, which is 2nd biggest after USA within NATO.

The USA clearly has to offer substantial rewards for Turkey not in the kind of money, but e.g. trade issues, technology, political backing in issues like North-Cyprus and such things. Turkey is rising with or without USA. We stand on our own feet and guarantee our own security. We have moved from being a regional power to being a hegemonial power, if you define hegemonial as being able to force own interests upon neighbouring states. That we have done with Syria and Greece in the 90's putting casus-belli over them both
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casus_belli#Turkey_and_Greece
www.greekembassy.org - Athens comments on resurfaced 'casus belli' issue with Turkey
Turkey sets stage for invasion of Syria | Article from Chicago Sun-Times
, and it seems Israel is the next candidate to align under Turkish interests by making peace with Syria.

We do not have fear of the 21st century, the insignificance of Turkey in the 20th century was a mix of economical weakness and self-chosen isolationism after establishing the nation-state out of WW1 chaos of the Ottomans.

In the history of the Oguz-branch Turks the 20th century was an annomaly. Our ancestors are the reason the Crusades started, later other dynasties of ancestors mirroring the Christian Crusades the same way back. The Turk who let walk ships over mountains and its sword over 3 continents. The Turk who gave breath to Attila, Seljuk, Alparslan, Osman, Mehmet and Süleyman.
The Turk who let its cruelity being hammered into stone as history.

 

[ekrem]

STRATFOR - Courting Turkey - Geopolitical Diary

U.S. President Barack Obama addressed the Turkish Parliament in Ankara on April 6 in one of the most aggrandizing approaches that we at STRATFOR have seen in years.
Obama's personality and diction were set to full-strength shine as he did everything possible to communicate his respect and admiration of Turkey's position and history. It was a speech meant to impress, and from what we are hearing Obama hit his mark.
(...)
The United States wants to use Turkey's position as the leading Muslim state, with influence from the Middle East to South Asia, to deal with the unrest in the Arab/Muslim world and ideally as a hedge against the Russian resurgence. Between the abject flattery and language indicating that Obama thought highly of Turkey's ability to act in accordance with mutual best interests, it is fairly clear that
Obama's talks with the Turkish leadership went extremely well.

A U.S.-Turkish partnership would be a powerful one. Turkey has deep economic and historical links throughout the Balkans, the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East. Considering the heft of U.S. influence, money and military power, any regional force opposed to a U.S.-Turkish duo would have its work cut out for it.

And there are three major powers that would be affected by such a pairing.

The first are the Europeans. While the EU is nowhere near becoming a federated state, it has the potential to one day become a major power that could become hostile to American interests. Obviously this is not a near-term threat, but one doesn't even need to go back a century to see how rapidly and thoroughly allies can become enemies (and vice versa). Having a strong relationship with Turkey acts as a
hedge against any European superpower(...)

The second are the Iranians. Tehran is hoping that the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq will give them a wealth of opportunities to push their influence into Iraq and further afield. Not if the Turks have anything to say about it. Not only do the Arabs trust the Turks more than the Persians, but the Turks are already hammering out a deal with the Americans to give Ankara a hand in Iraq's Kurdish north. The
return of Turkey to Mesopotamia -- a former Ottoman province -- will neatly block the most aggressive of Iran's ambitions.

Finally there are the Russians. Here things are a little stickier. Russia is far more consolidated than Europe and far more powerful than Iran. It is the power that most intimidates the Turks (and the Americans, for that matter) and therefore the one that the Turks are most leery of challenging. Not only is Turkey located close to Russia, but Ankara and Moscow share spheres of influence, especially in the Caucasus. In fact, until now the Turks have been looking for ways to avoid
confrontation with Moscow.

The Americans' problem is that they most need Turkey to counter the power that the Turks least want to confront. Obama's way around this problem appears to be giving the Turks public recognition and respect of Turkey's role, in the hope that at a minimum Ankara's relations with Moscow will not undermine the United States' strategy for Russia. From the Turkish point of view, Ankara cannot ask for a better
position than its current one, where both the United States and Russia are playing up its importance and seeking its favor.

It is clear that the Obama administration is comfortable going public with the policy that Turkey is no longer "simply" a fellow NATO member state and Western ally; it has emerged as a geopolitical force in its own right. Turkey has weight, and the Americans have recognized that weight. The only question now is this: Which direction will the Turks throw it?

 

[DamnYankee]

The heading of this thread is off course the US centrist wish.
In this thread i will try to explain what will happen in the next years within the Muslim world and USA position within this geography.

[snipped]

A further analysis

What Obama wants is the sort of alliance that Bush and Cheney thought they could muscle Turkey into in 2003, when they insisted on Turkish involvement in the invasion of Iraq. The strategists who miscalculated so badly about what would happen if they toppled Saddam left one of the most advanced divisions in the US Army bobbing off the coast of Turkey for weeks, waiting for a passage that would never come.

Obama seems to see Turkey, which has friendly relations with Israel, as potentially a much stronger partner than any other NATO nation, perhaps even Britain.

Turkey is arguably the most powerful militarily and the most balanced economically in the Islamic world, and perhaps the most stable. And unlike Saudi Arabia, it hasn't had a vested interest in feeding and off-loading homegrown jihadists to wreak havoc elsewhere in the world.

In the new emerging Obama conception of geopolitics, it may be that it is Turkey, strategically situated on the Bosporus, which provides even more needed help with the newer crises of Afghanistan and Pakistan and the traditional crises of the Middle East, as well as a watchful counterweight to Russia.

As for the European Union summit, well, it provided a great opportunity for Obama to make a big speech in Prague about the need to sharply reduce nuclear weapons, something his administration has begun to negotiate with Moscow with the expectation of a deal by the end of the year. But the Europeans, in part because of Britain's objections, didn't even follow through on their own suggestion at the G-20 summit a few days ago in London that a new regime of centralized financial regulation be implemented.

None of this is surprising. NATO existed to block the Soviet Union from a feared invasion of Western Europe. That mission was accomplished nearly two decades ago. NATO has never before operated outside of Europe, and, with the arguable exception of dealing with crises in the Balkans, has been a totally self-interested security alliance.

It's good that Obama got what he got from NATO, which is more than the previous administration accomplished. But it's clear that if America is to have a powerful, stable ally besides Britain in South Asia and the Middle East, that will be Turkey.

William Bradley: Turkey: Not the Usual Geopolitical Sandwich

Guessing that Obama has some work to do with those "allies"....

April 6, 2009 -- Updated 0158 GMT (0958 HKT)
Plot to assassinate Obama foiled in Turkey
By Ed Henry
CNN Senior White House Correspondent

ISTANBUL, Turkey (CNN) -- U.S. officials have taken "very seriously" a plot to assassinate President Barack Obama involving a Syrian man who was arrested late last week in Turkey, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the matter.


President Barack Obama addresses the Turkish parliament on Monday.

But the officials strongly cautioned that American presidents are frequent targets of threats that are all watched very carefully, and in this case the alleged plotter did not appear to get anywhere close to Obama during his European tour.

The officials also noted that while Obama gets more threats than usual as the first African-American U.S. president, this particular threat did not force any change to his schedule.

"Life goes on," said one of the officials familiar with the matter, who suggested the threat may be getting more attention because there has been a heavy international focus on Obama's first overseas trip since taking office.

White House officials declined to comment on the matter, citing a policy of not talking about security and threats around the president. U.S. Secret Service officials spoke only briefly about the case.

"We work closely with the host country whenever there is an arrest, which we are doing in this matter," Secret Service spokesman Ed Donovan said.

The plot was first reported by the Saudi Arabian newspaper al-Watan, which revealed that Turkish security services arrested a man of Syrian origins Friday in connection with a plan to kill Obama during his visit to Turkey. Obama was in Strasbourg, France, on Friday for a NATO summit and did not arrive in Turkey for the final leg of his trip until Sunday.

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The Saudi paper reported the suspect, who was carrying an Al-Jazeera TV press credential in the name of "M.G.," confessed to authorities after his arrest that he and three alleged accomplices plotted to stab Obama with a knife during the Alliance of Civilizations Summit in Istanbul, which Obama attended on Monday evening. The U.S. officials confirmed those allegations, but stressed to CNN that the information provided by the man is still being verified.

Al-Jazeera's bureau chief in Ankara, Turkey, Yucef al-Sharif, told the newspaper his news organization knew nothing about the man and suggested he may have obtained a forged press credential. According to U.S. officials, it's unclear whether the man, a permanent resident of Istanbul, had obtained a real press credential.

On Sunday, U.S. and international journalists covering Obama's trip did face more extensive searches of their baggage than usual by the U.S. Secret Service before boarding a press charter flight from the Prague, Czech Republic, region to Ankara. The same extensive searches were conducted Monday before a flight from Ankara to Istanbul.

But U.S. officials downplayed the possibility the more extensive searches were done out of concern that plotters may have infiltrated the media. Instead, the officials suggested that since Turkish security officials had not necessarily handled such a large crush of media before, U.S. Secret Service officials simply wanted to go the extra mile in their searches.

Plot to assassinate Obama foiled in Turkey - CNN.com

 

[editec]

Turkey is a long time and important ally to the USA.

One hopes that it can continue to be a majority Moslem nation which operates mostly as a secular state.

 

[DamnYankee]

Turkey is a long time and important ally to the USA.

One hopes that it can continue to be a majority Moslem nation which operates mostly as a secular state.

Hmmm....

"Triple Alliance": The US, Turkey, Israel and the War on Lebanon

Fractured Alliance? The Future of U.S.-Turkey Relations (audio) - Council on Foreign Relations

Rajan Menon and S. Enders Wimbush - Is the U.S.-Turkey Alliance at an End? - washingtonpost.com

Doesn't appear to me that "long time" is such a long time.

 

[editec]

Turkey is a long time and important ally to the USA.

One hopes that it can continue to be a majority Moslem nation which operates mostly as a secular state.

Hmmm....

"Triple Alliance": The US, Turkey, Israel and the War on Lebanon

Fractured Alliance? The Future of U.S.-Turkey Relations (audio) - Council on Foreign Relations

Rajan Menon and S. Enders Wimbush - Is the U.S.-Turkey Alliance at an End? - washingtonpost.com

Doesn't appear to me that "long time" is such a long time.

Your entire liftime.

Long time is a relative term, I suppose

 

[Munin]

Turkey is a long time and important ally to the USA.

One hopes that it can continue to be a majority Moslem nation which operates mostly as a secular state.

Yeah there you say it, will Turkey remain a secular state? Is erdogan even a secular prime minister?

Proposed ban from politics, 2008
On 14 March 2008, Turkey's Chief Prosecutor asked the country's Constitutional Court to close Erdoğan's party and ban him from politics for five years.[66] Erdoğan and 70 other party members were accused of being involved in anti-secular activities.[66] Prosecutor Abdurrahman Yalçınkaya said that he believed there was enough evidence that Erdoğan has worked against Turkey's secular constitution.[66]
The party later narrowly escaped a ban on 30 July 2008, a year after winning 46.7 percent of the vote in national elections.[67]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdoğan#Proposed_ban_from_politics.2C_2008


And if the turkish military (the last line of defense of Attaturks legacy) will intervene, then what about Turkey being a democracy?


I always doubted that Turkey was a secular country, since all women need to wear headscarves in turkey (even tourists have to do this, at least that s what I ve heard from a friend of mine who has been there). But maybe that depends on where you go in Turkey?

 

[PoliticalChic]

Turkey is a long time and important ally to the USA.

One hopes that it can continue to be a majority Moslem nation which operates mostly as a secular state.

Yeah there you say it, will Turkey remain a secular state? Is erdogan even a secular prime minister?

Proposed ban from politics, 2008
On 14 March 2008, Turkey's Chief Prosecutor asked the country's Constitutional Court to close Erdoğan's party and ban him from politics for five years.[66] Erdoğan and 70 other party members were accused of being involved in anti-secular activities.[66] Prosecutor Abdurrahman Yalçınkaya said that he believed there was enough evidence that Erdoğan has worked against Turkey's secular constitution.[66]
The party later narrowly escaped a ban on 30 July 2008, a year after winning 46.7 percent of the vote in national elections.[67]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdoğan#Proposed_ban_from_politics.2C_2008


And if the turkish military (the last line of defense of Attaturks legacy) will intervene, then what about Turkey being a democracy?


I always doubted that Turkey was a secular country, since all women need to wear headscarves in turkey (even tourists have to do this, at least that s what I ve heard from a friend of mine who has been there). But maybe that depends on where you go in Turkey?

The spotlight should be on Turkey at this time, it represents a pivotal point in geopolitics for many reasons.

I believe that President Obama never expected to get either the 2% GDP for Stimulus nor the fighting troops from the EU. This is why he scheduled his trip to Turkey. And why he backed EU membership for Turkey so strongly.

BTW, EU-membership isn't life or death for Turkey, as it is one of the few with strong trade ties to Russia.

We should watch carefully, and hope that the President is more facile in his dealings with Turkey than he was with Europe. An agreement with Turkey would block Russia, and pressure on Iran would represent a greater foreign policy acumen than many credit to the President. The key may be treaty between Turkey and Armenia.

If nothing comes of these meetings, then his G20 and Turkey trips are nothing more than photo ops, and he should be pilloried.

Also, since the 1920's Turkey's military has taken over when the country became too religious, and then returned to democracy.

And as far as headscarfs,
"The court, voting by a clear majority of 9-2 against the bill, rejected the argument put forward by Prime Minister Taycip Erdogan's government that a headscarf prevents many girls from obtaining proper education.

Instead it embraced the position of the secular forces, who had clearly spoken against the move by Erdogan's AKP party, saying this step granted Islam too much room in public life.

This strict defence of secular principles deals a serious blow to the AKP. Indeed, the party is also awaiting a ruling from the Constitutional Court on a request from the country's chief prosecutor to shut it down because its is allegedly attepting to soften the strict partition between religion and politics. "

EurActiv.com - Turkish court rules headscarf reform 'unconstitutional' | EU - European Information on Enlargement & Neighbours

 

[Munin]

This is the current situation in turkey

(Saturday, 9 February 2008, 11:43 GMT )

Turkey's parliament has approved two constitutional amendments easing the ban on women wearing Islamic headscarves in universities.

two-thirds of all Turkish women cover their heads

BBC NEWS | World | Europe | Turkey eases ban on headscarves



http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/09/AR2008020900832.html

 

[PoliticalChic]

This is the current situation in turkey

(Saturday, 9 February 2008, 11:43 GMT )

Turkey's parliament has approved two constitutional amendments easing the ban on women wearing Islamic headscarves in universities.

two-thirds of all Turkish women cover their heads

BBC NEWS | World | Europe | Turkey eases ban on headscarves



Ban on Head Scarves Voted Out in Turkey - washingtonpost.com

Was this informational or do you have a point?

 

[sitarro]

Yea, looks like our President is getting a lot of respect from this turkey.........

LiveLeak.com - Turkish Flash T.V. MOCKS U.S President Obama

 

[PoliticalChic]

Yea, looks like our President is getting a lot of respect from this turkey.........

LiveLeak.com - Turkish Flash T.V. MOCKS U.S President Obama

I don't know if this is a SNL kind of program, but if not, it is an insult to all Americans.

Can someone translate?

 

[Munin]

This is the current situation in turkey

(Saturday, 9 February 2008, 11:43 GMT )

Turkey's parliament has approved two constitutional amendments easing the ban on women wearing Islamic headscarves in universities.

two-thirds of all Turkish women cover their heads

BBC NEWS | World | Europe | Turkey eases ban on headscarves



Ban on Head Scarves Voted Out in Turkey - washingtonpost.com

Was this informational or do you have a point?

My point is that turkey is sliding back into a conservative islamic country. The majority of turks seem to be going back in time (the majority of Turkish women wear headscarves), if you look at the history of turkey. Ataturk tried to make a modern western nation of Turkey, Erdogan seems to be taking turkey back in time (breaking with the separation of mosque and state). Ataturk would probably turn over in his grave. I don't really see much good out of this evolution.

maybe these article are more clear about the subject: Turkish prosecutors say AK Party seeks Islamic state - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

...
The secular order and constitutionalism in Turkey have never been so shaky. The government now controls most television and radio stations. Erdoğan has gained the dubious distinction of launching more lawsuits against journalists and commentators than any previous Turkish prime minister.

As Erdoğan discourages dissent, his and Gülen's supporters among prominent Turkish columnists and commentators equate Islamism with democracy, and secularism with fascism, a line too many Western diplomats eager to demonstrate tolerance with an embrace of "moderate Islam" accept. Erdoğan himself has argued that it was secularism which led to Hitler; that Islamism would never produce such a result.

...

http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.27802/pub_detail.asp


Maybe ekrem can inform us more on the subject, since he is more of an expert than I aim.

 

[PoliticalChic]

This is the current situation in turkey

(Saturday, 9 February 2008, 11:43 GMT )

BBC NEWS | World | Europe | Turkey eases ban on headscarves



Ban on Head Scarves Voted Out in Turkey - washingtonpost.com

Was this informational or do you have a point?

My point is that turkey is sliding back into a conservative islamic country. The majority of turks seem to be going back in time (the majority of Turkish women wear headscarves), if you look at the history of turkey. Ataturk tried to make a modern western nation of Turkey, Erdogan seems to be taking turkey back in time (breaking with the separation of mosque and state). Ataturk would probably turn over in his grave. I don't really see much good out of this evolution.

maybe this article is more clear about the subject: Turkish prosecutors say AK Party seeks Islamic state - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)


Maybe ekrem can inform us more on the subject, since he is more of an expert than I aim.

Ah, thanks. Yes, I know about the great Ataturk, "...there is only one civilization..." As you know, Turkey has gone back and forth between secular and Islamic, and usually the army steps in. We will see.

As long as Turkey is a democracy, there is hope.

You may be right, and perhaps that is why our President is playing up his middle name, but either way, American needs closer ties with Turkey.

 

[ekrem]

This is the current situation in turkey

(Saturday, 9 February 2008, 11:43 GMT )

BBC NEWS | World | Europe | Turkey eases ban on headscarves



Ban on Head Scarves Voted Out in Turkey - washingtonpost.com

Was this informational or do you have a point?

My point is that turkey is sliding back into a conservative islamic country. The majority of turks seem to be going back in time (the majority of Turkish women wear headscarves), if you look at the history of turkey. Ataturk tried to make a modern western nation of Turkey, Erdogan seems to be taking turkey back in time (breaking with the separation of mosque and state). Ataturk would probably turn over in his grave. I don't really see much good out of this evolution.

maybe these article are more clear about the subject: Turkish prosecutors say AK Party seeks Islamic state - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

...
The secular order and constitutionalism in Turkey have never been so shaky. The government now controls most television and radio stations. Erdoğan has gained the dubious distinction of launching more lawsuits against journalists and commentators than any previous Turkish prime minister.

As Erdoğan discourages dissent, his and Gülen's supporters among prominent Turkish columnists and commentators equate Islamism with democracy, and secularism with fascism, a line too many Western diplomats eager to demonstrate tolerance with an embrace of "moderate Islam" accept. Erdoğan himself has argued that it was secularism which led to Hitler; that Islamism would never produce such a result.

...

AEI - Short Publications - Turkey's Turning Point: Could There Be an Islamic Revolution in Turkey?


Maybe ekrem can inform us more on the subject, since he is more of an expert than I aim.

Wearing a headscarf or being religious is no indication of being backwards. If you think so, you seem to misunderstand something. What matters is the understanding of people in regardance to legislation, the preference of religious or earthly legislation.
Your Gallup institute gives these datas:

Which of these statements comes closest to your own point of view?

Shari'a / Bible must be the only source of legislation
Turkey: 9%
USA: 9%
Shari'a / Bible must be a source of legislation, but not the only source
Turkey: 23%
USA: 46%
Shari'a / Bible should not be a source of legislation
Turkey: 57%
USA: 44%

Role of religious leaders in drafting new laws (legislation)
No direct role
Turkey: 74%
USA: 65%
Limited to advising government:
Turkey: 15%
USA: 28%
Put directly in charge of this function
Turkey: 6%
USA: 4%

Majorities See Religion and Democracy as Compatible



Another poll from GALLUP polling Turkish women:
Voices From Turkish Women

The importance of religion for most Turks combined with their rejection of Sharia as the only source of legislation brings some important nuance to the secular-religious debate. In other words, Turks see religious and democratic values as compatible. Furthermore, Turks' attitudes toward the associations with the headscarf suggest that the decision to wear a headscarf is a personal one, based in faith and not in ideology.

Headscarves and Secularism: Voices From Turkish Women

The conclusion is, that Turks are prefering earthly legislation more then Americans. The so-called religious-secular clash is something which happens inter-institutionally within the state system by institutional actors. The normal Turk is not feeling to be in a situation to take sides with any institution.
Otherwise such datas would never be possible:

Military in Turkey Elicits Highest Levels of Public Confidence

What Americans also do not seem to understand is, that the headscarf ban was introduced in December 1981.
single - The Jamestown Foundation[tt_news]=33371
The headscarf ban has nothing to do with Ataturk as in Ataturk's time and the period after (switch to multi-party democracy) there was no such thing in meddling to women's dress. This was legislated in December 1981 after the army had to step in to restore public order after the leftist-fascist violence.

The overall death toll of the 1970s is estimated at 5,000, with nearly ten assassinations per day.[8] Most were members of left-wing and right-wing political organization, then engaged in bitter fighting.

1980 Turkish coup d'état - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


The AKP with backing by the nationalist MHP party legalized headscarf in the higher education system in 2007. University students have a minimum age which indicates that they wear the headscarf by own decision. The lifting of the headscarf ban did only apply to higher education, it did not aply to girls for example in college or primary school. Only in universities.

Also in the legislation law it was exactly stated which form of headscarf would be allowed in higher education system. First let us read the relevant part of the higher education law which should have enabled headscarf in higher ecuation system:

Amended Article 17 of higher education law:

“No one can be deprived of higher education because they cover their heads and there can be no implementations in that direction. However, the style of covering must leave the face of the person open in order to allow identification and must be tied under the chin.”

Bianet :: Question of the Day: How to Tie the Headscarf?


There are three different kinds of headscarf:
1. covering hair and tied under the chin.
2. covering hair, throat and neck. Tied behind the neck.
3. complete covering Taliban style.

The amended law did legalize the headscarf as described in point 1.
But the law was cancelled by the Constituional Court.

Procentual of women wearing headscarf styles:
1. 51,9%
2. 16,2 %
3. 1,3%
4. do not wear 30,6 %

Wikipedia citing KONDA institute, which is most accurate in predicting Turkish election results.
Headscarf controversy in Turkey - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Some findings were that 64.2 % of all adult women in Turkey covered their heads outside of the household; that the practice of covering increases greatly with age, that education was a primary factor and that covering decreases greatly as social status increases.

http://www.konda.com.tr/html/dosyalar/ghdl&t_en.pdf

 

[ekrem]

Yea, looks like our President is getting a lot of respect from this turkey.........

LiveLeak.com - Turkish Flash T.V. MOCKS U.S President Obama

Market share of Turkish Television Channels:
Flash TV
Whole day: 1,7 %
Prime Time: 1,6 %
Ýþte en ayrýntýlý reyting raporu - SAMANYOLUHABER

 

[ekrem]

Yea, looks like our President is getting a lot of respect from this turkey.........

LiveLeak.com - Turkish Flash T.V. MOCKS U.S President Obama

I don't know if this is a SNL kind of program, but if not, it is an insult to all Americans.

Can someone translate?

Isteyenin bir yuzu kara, vermeyenin iki yuzu. -
(The one who asks has one side of his face dark; the one who refuses to give has both sides.) Used to put the shame or burden on the side that can give but refuses to do so.
Turkish Proverbs

He coloured his face according to this proverb. And that the political leaders of Turkey might be to proud to request something from Obama. So he will do it for them.
He also says in announcement that he will deliver his requests to Obama with coloured face to grab the attention of Obama himself.
He says: "I coloured my face i have some requests from you".
He numerates his requests and hopes for fullfillment either he says that the proverb may be come "The one who asks has one side of his face dark; the one who refuses to give becomes an Obama. Please." He says it is not rascist but underlines his position of having requests. He might have thought that produceing something like a scandal might help him or his channel. Which actually did.

 

[Munin]

...

Maybe ekrem can inform us more on the subject, since he is more of an expert than I aim.

Wearing a headscarf or being religious is no indication of being backwards. If you think so, you seem to misunderstand something. What matters is the understanding of people in regardance to legislation, the preference of religious or earthly legislation.
Your Gallup institute gives these datas:

...

thx ecrem. That cleared thing up a bit, but I m still not completely clear about it. I always had the impression (according to the historical sources) that attaturk believed that people would eventually ban the headscarf out of their own will (according to one source of mine the wife of attaturk wore a headscarf, but his children did not).
Your sources indicate that the younger generations are not wearing it, but once they get older or get married they become more religious conservative.

 

[Epsilon Delta]

^ Yeah, it seems to have some correlation with age, education, and income. Pretty interesting stuff, huh? Though I do remember in an anthropology class I took there was a text of an apparent upturn in incidence of headscarf-wearing among younger, university-level Turkish women as a form of oppositional culture. Although, now that I think about it, it might have been Indonesia or something instead. Wish I could find it.

@ekram: Wow!! That's some detailed research you got there. One of my roomates has some paid access to Stratfor; its a pretty good source. So, thanks, very educational.