Trajan, I don't think this is a situation when long games of moves ahead can be seen in foreign policy like in a chessgame.
Yesterday Obama stated that he would not rush to mire the United States in another war.
Today he has moved naval ships armed with Tomahawk missiles near to Syria.
All this backing and filling seems confused to me. However, I've noticed that when America moves military assets into a place where they can act, we rarely leave without using them. Assembling forces in Kuwait before Desert Storm, getting jets ready to bomb Qaddafi, many examples: if we go there, we will shoot, experience shows.
So why? Because, I think, we told Assad he couldn't use poison gas and the administration is deciding or has decided, I'd say, that he did anyway. If we let that go, our military credibility as world policeman declines.
The poison gas thing is important because there are some weapons we don't want regularized: poison gas, biological disease agents, and nuclear weapons. All weapons do become normalized eventually, of course, but those are the three we've pretty successfully kept bottled up so far, two from WWI and one from WWII. Obviously the Mideast dictators want to regularize them. Saddam did, and we disposed of him. This lesson has perhaps been lost on Assad, though I don't know what good the gas did him, militarily, if he is the one who used it. Assuming it was actually used at all.
All geopolitics is about stalling for time. We are trying to prevent the normalization of three serious weapons systems, two of which are in constant danger of being used in the Mideast, poison gas and nukes.
We can't stop the spread and use of these weapons forever. But even a few years or decades will see most of us safely off the planet, and that delay is probably what we're trying for.
So I'd say Assad could be in trouble tonight.