Swing State Polls Tilt to Obama

[SwingVoter]

RCP just posted a slew of battleground state polls (thank god, was getting sick of the debates over 1 pt in a nat'l poll)

Mac's up 7 in Ohio, up 2 in VA, but just even in FL and up just 1 in MI. O is stil up in CO. Looks like the convention bounce is being felt most strongly in states Bush won in 2004, except FL.

This is playing out to the 19 Kerry states + NM + CO + IA scenario that gets Obama enough EVs to win 273-265.

 

[random3434]

Shew, now I can sleep good tonight.

 

[Jon]

RCP just posted a slew of battleground state polls (thank god, was getting sick of the debates over 1 pt in a nat'l poll)

Mac's up 7 in Ohio, up 2 in VA, but just even in FL and up just 1 in MI. O is stil up in CO. Looks like the convention bounce is being felt most strongly in states Bush won in 2004, except FL.

This is playing out to the 19 Kerry states + NM + CO + IA scenario that gets Obama enough EVs to win 273-265.

It's only just begun. Wait for the debates.

As for Michigan, I still it in Obama's favor, not McCain's.

 

[JimH52]

I think Obama will carry Virginia, especially since Mark Warner is going to slam Gilmore, and he may very well take NC. He is even in Florida now but may pull ahead once the debates are done. If the debates go past 10:30 ET...well McCain may have to at least take a nap to keep the pace.

If you look at an electoral map, McCain needs to upset Obama is several leading states to win.

 

[Modbert]

I think Obama will carry Virginia, especially since Mark Warner is going to slam Gilmore, and he may very well take NC. He is even in Florida now but may pull ahead once the debates are done. If the debates go past 10:30 ET...well McCain may have to at least take a nap to keep the pace.

If you look at an electoral map, McCain needs to upset Obama is several leading states to win.

Plus, despite how much the republicans want to parrot: Sarah Palin has not proven herself to be a good speaker unscripted.

We've all heard such great things about her, well hey anyone can read off a teleprompter. I laugh at how the GOP makes fun of Obama for his supposedly inability to do but what about Mumbles McCain or Sarah Palin who we have not seen give a speech without a teleprompter or a piece of paper?

The VP debate will either go very bad or very good for the GOP, though I lean towards very bad. Sure Sarah has debated several very low-key figures (that are figured low-key in the state of Alaska) for the positions of Mayor and Governor but this is a whole new ballpark.

Joe Biden isn't inexperienced, and he just might wipe the floor badly.

 

[Caligirl]

Debtes will be seen as a win by both sides.

No matter what the question is, each side will pivot it to a talking point that will be rehearsed beforehand.

 

[SwingVoter]

If Obama's smart, he'd go after FL and cut efforts in IN and GA. Palin's helping Mac big-time with rural and southern pro-lifers, but also hurting with urban/suburban pro-choicers. FL could easily flip, largely because of Miami-Palm Beach, but IN and GA aren't likely to.