Tony's ways are a bit annoying, but nothing like Russell. That Russell made it to the final and didn't win just shows how too much can be too much....I don't think Tony has reached that point.
Tasha has been a tough player and if she and Tony made it to the end she would win. Unfortunately, the floaters will carry Tony to the end, and they are worse.
I'm not so sure Tasha would win though she would probably get some votes. She has been great in the immunity challenges and she is a pleasant and likable person. But she hasn't played the game like Tony has. She hasn't made the big moves or taken the big risks. Tony has. And if the person isn't a reprehensible a-hole in the process, the jury tends to reward that kind of skill. Remember Richard Hatch was not the most lovable guy in the first Survivor, but the jury rewarded him with the win because he was the smartest player that year. Ditto Boston Rob the year he won.
Yes, you are right...there have been times when a person, regardless of how slick they were in lying and back stabbing, was still given the win....but, like Russell Hantz, they were so mad at him they didn't vote for him at the end.
His manipulative, cunning and emotionally abusive demeanor, especially towards the women (who he alternately insulted and charmed) enabled him to make it to the Final Tribal Council on two separate occasions. But it also caused him to receive the ire of the Jury, denying him of the title of Sole Survivor.
Russell Hantz - Survivor Wiki
True, that Tony is not that despicable, but LJ and Sarah are really disgusted with him, and almost everyone voted out after them, was because of Tony....no telling whether or not some of them can hold a grudge and overlook his playing skills.
I have no problem with Tony winning, but someone that uses the kinds of lies he does, I don't feel like they are playing the "social" part that well whereas Tasha hasn't really alienated anyone so far.