Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

[JoeB131]

Just remember, Skippy -- I'm not the one who said he'd report any responses from his neg reps.

That would be you, you sissy bedwetter.

On top of that, you're incapable of originality.

You're simply not as bright as you've lied to yourself you are.

NO, I said I'd report you if you didn't stop harrassing me by PM.

Which is a violation of the rules.

 

[JoeB131]

That wasn't the question dumb ass. You keep saying the only reason we don't like Obama, who is a Marxist, is because he's black. I asked for three ways that Obama's policies are better ... by our standards, not your hack partisan liberal Democrat ones ... that Obama is better than Kerry.

Name three things that a fiscal conservative would say wow, Obama is better than Kerry, which would then at least attempt to support your contention.

And you're butt stupid, you keep running around yelling racist, racist, so I respond with you hate Jews and you're like where did that come from? Mirror, asshole. That you have to resort to the stupid tactics you do is the best proof what a lame candidate you have. If Obama didn't blow, you'd stick to the issues. But in every discussion you go ad hominem because it's all you got, girlfriend.

Guy, you act like we really CARE if you Teabagging idiots have any ideas.

If you guys are against it, it's probably because it's humane and sensible.

But I'll give you one example- YOu guys were all for individual mandates- until the black guy did them.

Romneycare was wonderful... until they started calling it Obamacare.

Then it became "Marxists" - Which is teabagger for the N-word.

 

[miami_thomas]

That wasn't the question dumb ass. You keep saying the only reason we don't like Obama, who is a Marxist, is because he's black. I asked for three ways that Obama's policies are better ... by our standards, not your hack partisan liberal Democrat ones ... that Obama is better than Kerry.

Name three things that a fiscal conservative would say wow, Obama is better than Kerry, which would then at least attempt to support your contention.

And you're butt stupid, you keep running around yelling racist, racist, so I respond with you hate Jews and you're like where did that come from? Mirror, asshole. That you have to resort to the stupid tactics you do is the best proof what a lame candidate you have. If Obama didn't blow, you'd stick to the issues. But in every discussion you go ad hominem because it's all you got, girlfriend.

Guy, you act like we really CARE if you Teabagging idiots have any ideas.

If you guys are against it, it's probably because it's humane and sensible.

But I'll give you one example- YOu guys were all for individual mandates- until the black guy did them.

Romneycare was wonderful... until they started calling it Obamacare.

Then it became "Marxists" - Which is teabagger for the N-word.

I was never for individual mandates. Where is the poll showing a majority of conservatives were for individual mandates? Show me where there is anything that government wants to force people to do that conservatives are for. Now do states have a right to pass things like this? Sure they do and it is up to the people in that state to decide if they vote that person out of office for doing so. Last, we are not like the Democrat party where we support everything the Republican Party does. That is the Democrats that do that.

 

[kaz]

That wasn't the question dumb ass. You keep saying the only reason we don't like Obama, who is a Marxist, is because he's black. I asked for three ways that Obama's policies are better ... by our standards, not your hack partisan liberal Democrat ones ... that Obama is better than Kerry.

Name three things that a fiscal conservative would say wow, Obama is better than Kerry, which would then at least attempt to support your contention.

And you're butt stupid, you keep running around yelling racist, racist, so I respond with you hate Jews and you're like where did that come from? Mirror, asshole. That you have to resort to the stupid tactics you do is the best proof what a lame candidate you have. If Obama didn't blow, you'd stick to the issues. But in every discussion you go ad hominem because it's all you got, girlfriend.

Guy, you act like we really CARE if you Teabagging idiots have any ideas.

If you guys are against it, it's probably because it's humane and sensible.

But I'll give you one example- YOu guys were all for individual mandates- until the black guy did them.

Romneycare was wonderful... until they started calling it Obamacare.

Then it became "Marxists" - Which is teabagger for the N-word.

Socialized medicine is a reason that fiscal conservatives would support Obama. I can't say you ever pass on an opportunity to show you're mentally retarded.

 

[expatriate]

Show me where there is anything that government wants to force people to do that conservatives are for.

conservatives certainly support having government force women to carry pregnancies to term.

just sayin'

 

[NYcarbineer]

The polls are skewed because they're going on the assumption that voter turnout this year will mirror the 'once in a century' Democrat turnout of 2008.

How did you arrive at that conclusion?

Look at their methodology. 25% more Democrats than Republicans?

Buy that pig in a poke if you want to, but the ONLY poll that counts will come out the night of Nov. 6...

Wear your big boy Pull-ups...

If all the polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats, how is it that the realclear final poll average in 2008 was only 3/10ths of a point off the final result?

 

[miami_thomas]

That wasn't the question dumb ass. You keep saying the only reason we don't like Obama, who is a Marxist, is because he's black. I asked for three ways that Obama's policies are better ... by our standards, not your hack partisan liberal Democrat ones ... that Obama is better than Kerry.

Name three things that a fiscal conservative would say wow, Obama is better than Kerry, which would then at least attempt to support your contention.

And you're butt stupid, you keep running around yelling racist, racist, so I respond with you hate Jews and you're like where did that come from? Mirror, asshole. That you have to resort to the stupid tactics you do is the best proof what a lame candidate you have. If Obama didn't blow, you'd stick to the issues. But in every discussion you go ad hominem because it's all you got, girlfriend.

Guy, you act like we really CARE if you Teabagging idiots have any ideas.

If you guys are against it, it's probably because it's humane and sensible.

But I'll give you one example- YOu guys were all for individual mandates- until the black guy did them.

Romneycare was wonderful... until they started calling it Obamacare.

Then it became "Marxists" - Which is teabagger for the N-word.

Socialized medicine is a reason that fiscal conservatives would support Obama. I can't say you ever pass on an opportunity to show you're mentally retarded.

So in your mind fiscal Conservatives support saving money over saving lives? One, socialized medicine sacrifices quality and quantity to provide cheaper services so that is a problem. Second, we are not just talking socialized medicine we are also talking about subsidized medicine and in the end it will end up costing more not less.

 

[miami_thomas]

Show me where there is anything that government wants to force people to do that conservatives are for.

conservatives certainly support having government force women to carry pregnancies to term.

just sayin'

Look, I for one could care less about abortion but for the sake of argument. You are saying that Conservatives saying that abortion is murder is requesting government to force something on someone?

 

[miami_thomas]

How did you arrive at that conclusion?

Look at their methodology. 25% more Democrats than Republicans?

Buy that pig in a poke if you want to, but the ONLY poll that counts will come out the night of Nov. 6...

Wear your big boy Pull-ups...

If all the polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats, how is it that the realclear final poll average in 2008 was only 3/10ths of a point off the final result?

Quote from this story
"Not only did these samples fail to reflect the partisan make-up of the 2010 election turnout in either state, they even oversampled Democrats compared to the 2008 turnout –and 2008 was the best year for Democratic turnout in a generation. "

Hit it: Quality Control Among the Polls: Will RealClearPolitics.com Protect Its Brand? - Hugh Hewitt - [page]

 

[expatriate]

Show me where there is anything that government wants to force people to do that conservatives are for.

conservatives certainly support having government force women to carry pregnancies to term.

just sayin'

Look, I for one could care less about abortion but for the sake of argument. You are saying that Conservatives saying that abortion is murder is requesting government to force something on someone?

I am saying exactly what I said. Conservatives have no problem having government force THEIR beliefs down other people's throats and make them adhere to them. You asked where there is anything that government wants to force people to do that conservatives are for. I gave you one example of just that.

 

[miami_thomas]

conservatives certainly support having government force women to carry pregnancies to term.

just sayin'

Look, I for one could care less about abortion but for the sake of argument. You are saying that Conservatives saying that abortion is murder is requesting government to force something on someone?

I am saying exactly what I said. Conservatives have no problem having government force THEIR beliefs down other people's throats and make them adhere to them. You asked where there is anything that government wants to force people to do that conservatives are for. I gave you one example of just that.

They also believe that people should be forced to not murder because according to their beliefs it is wrong. Should we also remove that one too? How about stealing should we do away with that one as well.

 

[expatriate]

Look, I for one could care less about abortion but for the sake of argument. You are saying that Conservatives saying that abortion is murder is requesting government to force something on someone?

I am saying exactly what I said. Conservatives have no problem having government force THEIR beliefs down other people's throats and make them adhere to them. You asked where there is anything that government wants to force people to do that conservatives are for. I gave you one example of just that.

They also believe that people should be forced to not murder because according to their beliefs it is wrong. Should we also remove that one too? How about stealing should we do away with that one as well.

stealing and murder are against the law. abortion is not. And your question was not about what laws should be removed, but what conservatives wanted government to force other people to do. I answered your question. time to accept the fact that I answered it with a valid example and move on.

 

[Dr.House]

How did you arrive at that conclusion?

Look at their methodology. 25% more Democrats than Republicans?

Buy that pig in a poke if you want to, but the ONLY poll that counts will come out the night of Nov. 6...

Wear your big boy Pull-ups...

If all the polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats, how is it that the realclear final poll average in 2008 was only 3/10ths of a point off the final result?

Irrelevant to this year's election...

If 0bama is only up by small numbers when oversampling democratics by 10% or more in some cases, then if your boy doesn't pull in those turnout percentages in November, he is toast...

Clue: He's not going to pull in 2008 numbers...

 

[NYcarbineer]

Look at their methodology. 25% more Democrats than Republicans?

Buy that pig in a poke if you want to, but the ONLY poll that counts will come out the night of Nov. 6...

Wear your big boy Pull-ups...

If all the polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats, how is it that the realclear final poll average in 2008 was only 3/10ths of a point off the final result?

Irrelevant to this year's election...

If 0bama is only up by small numbers when oversampling democratics by 10% or more in some cases, then if your boy doesn't pull in those turnout percentages in November, he is toast...

Clue: He's not going to pull in 2008 numbers...

How is a pollster supposed to predict what the ratio of Democrat to Republican turnout will be?

 

[amrchaos]

A better question, what is the Democrat versus Republican ratio for the general population being sampled?

In some states, there are more democrats than Republicans. I am assuming Ohio happens to be one of those states(I could be wrong--I have to check the stats)

Florida, on the other hand, has more Republicans(and a large Libertarian base for those that are wondering) than Democrats. So a poll for Florida should be skewed more towards Reps than Dems while a poll for Ohio skewed more for dems than Reps.

In any case--lots of random samplings and averages over those samplings should return the likely ballot turn out. So the question is propbably how big is their pool than an issue of ratio to start with.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Look at their methodology. 25% more Democrats than Republicans?

Buy that pig in a poke if you want to, but the ONLY poll that counts will come out the night of Nov. 6...

Wear your big boy Pull-ups...

If all the polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats, how is it that the realclear final poll average in 2008 was only 3/10ths of a point off the final result?

Quote from this story
"Not only did these samples fail to reflect the partisan make-up of the 2010 election turnout in either state, they even oversampled Democrats compared to the 2008 turnout –and 2008 was the best year for Democratic turnout in a generation. "

Hit it: Quality Control Among the Polls: Will RealClearPolitics.com Protect Its Brand? - Hugh Hewitt - [page]

I already pointed out that the PPP poll for Ohio, with Obama at+5, undersampled Democrats by 4 points from 2008.

Obama is currently winning. Deal with it.

 

[Dr.House]

If all the polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats, how is it that the realclear final poll average in 2008 was only 3/10ths of a point off the final result?

Irrelevant to this year's election...

If 0bama is only up by small numbers when oversampling democratics by 10% or more in some cases, then if your boy doesn't pull in those turnout percentages in November, he is toast...

Clue: He's not going to pull in 2008 numbers...

How is a pollster supposed to predict what the ratio of Democrat to Republican turnout will be?

Plenty of methods for garnering current voter/party enthusiasm or apathy, then apply to sampling...

If you want to pretend that voter turnout will be like it was in 2008, nobody can stop you...

But looking at some of the recent ones, they are going way beyond the difference in 2008... Bad news for you fluffers is that Barry is not doing well with even THAT sampling...

Barry is in trouble... I know it, he knows it, but it looks like you fluffers are oblivious...

 

[8537]

Irrelevant to this year's election...

If 0bama is only up by small numbers when oversampling democratics by 10% or more in some cases, then if your boy doesn't pull in those turnout percentages in November, he is toast...

Clue: He's not going to pull in 2008 numbers...

How is a pollster supposed to predict what the ratio of Democrat to Republican turnout will be?

Plenty of methods for garnering current voter/party enthusiasm or apathy, then apply to sampling...

you mean like doing a poll of registered voters, asking party affiliation? That kind of method?

 

[8537]

Look at their methodology. 25% more Democrats than Republicans?

Buy that pig in a poke if you want to, but the ONLY poll that counts will come out the night of Nov. 6...

Wear your big boy Pull-ups...

What do you believe an accurate breakdown would be, and how did you arrive at that conclusion?

Just take a look at Wisconsin. More republicans showed up in the primaries for Scott and he was unopposed.

Eh....OK then. So what do you believe an accurate breakdown would be, and how did you arrive at that conclusion?

 

[auditor0007]

They were discussing this on Fox today.. They said wait for two wks out from the election as that's when these lying pollsters will make it real worried about their reputations at that point.

That's what I've been saying about Rasmussen all along. When it gets closer to the election, they'll start giving us the real numbers.