Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

[Salt Jones]

Obama's convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today's Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.

I realize oversampling Democrats is simply part of an effort to create an air of inevitability for Obama's reelection. Its a narrative the media is desperate to foster.

Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

Keep thinking that Romney has a chance of winning. When he gets crushed, maybe it will put you over the edge. Can you please film your meltdown?

 

[ba1614]

I don't think the polls matter, it's going to come down to who is energized most to get to the polls, and I believe that people are more energized to get rid of this failure than his supporters are to keep him.

And I know that's what you really need to believe... but not really.

In fact, Obama will probably win for the following reason.

Because the people who voted for him last time won't admit they made a mistake. They have emotional investment in him.

On the other hand, the people who voted for McCain have no emotional investment in Romney.

So you acknowledge the left is driven by emotion.

There may be hope for you yet.

And it only took an attempted insult for it to slip out.

 

[NYcarbineer]

They were discussing this on Fox today.. They said wait for two wks out from the election as that's when these lying pollsters will make it real worried about their reputations at that point.

So the people on Fox were saying their own Foxnews poll showing Obama up by 5 is oversampling Democrats and trying to make Obama look better than he is??

Did you think before you posted that?

 

[daveman]

And I know that's what you really need to believe... but not really.

In fact, Obama will probably win for the following reason.

Because the people who voted for him last time won't admit they made a mistake. They have emotional investment in him.

On the other hand, the people who voted for McCain have no emotional investment in Romney.

So you acknowledge the left is driven by emotion.

There may be hope for you yet.

And it only took an attempted insult for it to slip out.

Well, in his defense, I must say that Joe isn't very bright.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The NBC/WSJ poll for Ohio polled 38% D and 28% R.

In 2008 the exit polls showed 39% D and 31% R voted.


So if it makes you happy to shift the D/R ratio to match 2008, how much would that change Obama's 7 point lead???

8 points? Hardly. Obama is winning Ohio right now and Romney is barring-a-miracle fucked if he loses Ohio.

Local Exit Polls - Election Center 2008 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

 

[Rinata]

Obama's convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today's Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.

I realize oversampling Democrats is simply part of an effort to create an air of inevitability for Obama's reelection. Its a narrative the media is desperate to foster.

Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

Breitbart again???

 

[Lovebears65]

Obama's convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today's Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.

I realize oversampling Democrats is simply part of an effort to create an air of inevitability for Obama's reelection. Its a narrative the media is desperate to foster.

Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

DOJ threaten to sue Gallap because of the poll numbers before were not in favor of The DEMS Messiah .. Department of Justice sues Gallup | The Daily Caller

 

[Politico]

Because the people who voted for him last time won't admit they made a mistake.

Those people are curtain democrats. Who they vote for and who they say they voted for are not the same.

 

[JoeB131]

With the writing on the wall Willard is going to lose, the right wingers are going into a full blown tinfoil meltdown.

The second best part about Romney winning in an epic landslide? You're dumb ass won't show your face around here ever again out of shame...

Except it is never going to happen.

ROmney hasn't been in the lead in the RCP average since 2011.

The media is going full bore on him and Ryan seems to be doing his own thing.

Always a bad sign when your veep is distancing himself from the catastrophe.

 

[JoeB131]

Because the people who voted for him last time won't admit they made a mistake.

Those people are curtain democrats.Who they vote for and who they say they voted for are not the same.

I'm not sure I understand your reasoning here.

Let's take your average Obama voter. He voted for Obama for specific reasons. Maybe the economy sucks, but it isn't as bad as it was. Romney hasn't done a darn thing to win them over. He's too busy sucking up to people whom he should already have on the reservation.

I just don't see those folks going to Romney.

On the other hand, a lot of McCain folks voted for McCain because he was more moderate, a guy willling to work across the room, etc. And some of us voted for McCain in the primary because we couldn't stand Romney in 2008.

 

[JoeB131]

I don't think the polls matter, it's going to come down to who is energized most to get to the polls, and I believe that people are more energized to get rid of this failure than his supporters are to keep him.

And I know that's what you really need to believe... but not really.

In fact, Obama will probably win for the following reason.

Because the people who voted for him last time won't admit they made a mistake. They have emotional investment in him.

On the other hand, the people who voted for McCain have no emotional investment in Romney.

So you acknowledge the left is driven by emotion.

There may be hope for you yet.

Of course they do. Voting is ultimately an emotional investment.

Just like you will vote against him because your insane hate consumes you.

I'm voting for Obama because Romney sucks and I don't trust him. Because he's taking the GOP completely in the wrong direction.

But a lot of other people- yeah, it's an emotional thing... which is why Obama will win.

You just don't have enough bitter white guys to get rid of him.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Obama's convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today's Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.

I realize oversampling Democrats is simply part of an effort to create an air of inevitability for Obama's reelection. Its a narrative the media is desperate to foster.

Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

DOJ threaten to sue Gallap because of the poll numbers before were not in favor of The DEMS Messiah .. Department of Justice sues Gallup | The Daily Caller

That's not why they were sued you stupid cracker.

 

[daveman]

And I know that's what you really need to believe... but not really.

In fact, Obama will probably win for the following reason.

Because the people who voted for him last time won't admit they made a mistake. They have emotional investment in him.

On the other hand, the people who voted for McCain have no emotional investment in Romney.

So you acknowledge the left is driven by emotion.

There may be hope for you yet.

Of course they do. Voting is ultimately an emotional investment.

Just like you will vote against him because your insane hate consumes you.

I'm voting for Obama because Romney sucks and I don't trust him. Because he's taking the GOP completely in the wrong direction.

But a lot of other people- yeah, it's an emotional thing... which is why Obama will win.

You just don't have enough bitter white guys to get rid of him.

Oh, you mean my insane hate you can't provide any examples of? That insane hate?

Retard.

 

[JoeB131]

Every time you post, you prove it, guy...

 

[California Girl]

I don't think the polls matter, it's going to come down to who is energized most to get to the polls, and I believe that people are more energized to get rid of this failure than his supporters are to keep him.

And I know that's what you really need to believe... but not really.

In fact, Obama will probably win for the following reason.

Because the people who voted for him last time won't admit they made a mistake. They have emotional investment in him.

On the other hand, the people who voted for McCain have no emotional investment in Romney.

Complete and utter bullshit, but you cling to whatever gets you through the day, JoeyBoy.

 

[California Girl]

Obama's convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today's Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.

I realize oversampling Democrats is simply part of an effort to create an air of inevitability for Obama's reelection. Its a narrative the media is desperate to foster.

Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

DOJ threaten to sue Gallap because of the poll numbers before were not in favor of The DEMS Messiah .. Department of Justice sues Gallup | The Daily Caller

That's not why they were sued you stupid cracker.

Do you think using racist terms makes you look intelligent? If so, I got some bad news for ya.

 

[JoeB131]

I don't think the polls matter, it's going to come down to who is energized most to get to the polls, and I believe that people are more energized to get rid of this failure than his supporters are to keep him.

And I know that's what you really need to believe... but not really.

In fact, Obama will probably win for the following reason.

Because the people who voted for him last time won't admit they made a mistake. They have emotional investment in him.

On the other hand, the people who voted for McCain have no emotional investment in Romney.

Complete and utter bullshit, but you cling to whatever gets you through the day, JoeyBoy.

Again, the sentence I've never heard uttered.

"Wow, I totally screwed up voting for Obama in 2008. I can't wait to vote for Romney this time."

Haven't heard that yet.

Have heard people say, "I liked McCain. But this Romney? What a douchebag."

Oh, wait. I've said that.

So have a few other people I know.

 

[NYcarbineer]

DOJ threaten to sue Gallap because of the poll numbers before were not in favor of The DEMS Messiah .. Department of Justice sues Gallup | The Daily Caller

That's not why they were sued you stupid cracker.

Do you think using racist terms makes you look intelligent? If so, I got some bad news for ya.

I know I'm smarter than you are. Bad news for you.

 

[Truthmatters]

Fox did sue for the right to fire reporters who wont lie for them

 

[healthmyths]

Obama's convention bounce seems to have evaporated. Rasmussen today has Romney up 3 points. Today's Gallup tracking poll had Obama up 5, a loss of 2 points over two days. Gallup uses a 7 day rolling average, so expect this number to continue to come down over the next several days. Undaunted, the media are trumpeting new polls with show Obama with 3 point lead nationally and significant leads in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia. As is becoming routine, these new polls again oversample Democrats.

I realize oversampling Democrats is simply part of an effort to create an air of inevitability for Obama's reelection. Its a narrative the media is desperate to foster.

Surprise! Oversampling Dems Puts Obama in Lead

Here is an actual breakdown of an another OVERSAMPLED POLL!!!
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone September 7-9, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,002 adults, including landline and cell phone-only respondents. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points. The error margin is four points for the sample of 826 registered voters, and 4.5 points for the sample of 710 likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.
Results 50% Obama Romney 44%

Democrats 32% of the 1,002 or 320 polled.
GOP 26% or 260 polled
Independents 37% or 370 polled

Studies show 47% of Independents lean Democrat so that meant 174 of Independents favor Democrat favor Obama or total OBAMA
combining Demo/Independent of 494 votes for Obama.

Total GOP/Independents or 386 Romney.

Now If 50% of the 494 went for Obama (that was the poll results Obama 50%) that works out to 1/10th of percent for Obama that each person that was polled.

but if the poll was made up of equal GOP democrats and GOP leaning Independents and DEM leaning Independents
the results would have been much closer then 50% for Obama!
Washington Post-ABC News Poll (washingtonpost.com)

Another POLL..

CNN POLL of 709 Likely voters Polling Center: CNN Poll: Obama takes back the lead - Elections & Politics from CNN.com
Headline:: CNN Poll: Obama takes back the lead
CNN so excited! Yes Obama takes back a 6% lead so how did this happen??

Well if YOU are interested in the REAL TRUTH and FACTS of POLLING OVERSAMPLING!!

Down load the Polling questions and methodology and look at page 4 and see that
CNN counted 44 MORE DEMOCRATS that GOP!

So they are basing this 6% Obama voting edge to the FACT CNN asked 441 Democrats versus 397 GOP!

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/10/rel10a.pdf


So based on the OVERSAMPLING in just these two polls Obama is really hurting AS AN INCUMBENT He should be much farther ahead!