Stuff I Disagree with Tea Partiers, Libertarians and Liberals On

[flacaltenn]

Oh Reeeeeallly???? So you're going to question my bona fides? Okay, let me be tactful here. You're full of sh1t. You sir, are either a fraud or a really sh1tty businessman. And I am never one to be afraid to put my feet to the fire.

So let me ask the "sage advice" of your highness. Right now, my company has been offered a contract that will net me over $1M. That's right. Me personally. The thing is, if I don't handle it quickly and efficiently, I ruin a reputation I've worked hard to build for more than a decade. That means I would have to hire at least one, if not two people.
Do I take the contract and hire the people?
Do I turn down the contract and let my competitors get it, thus insuring they will have a good chance to capture one of my best clients? Because after all, the All Powerful Oz (Obama), may or may not increase my taxes at some time in the next "X" number of years!!!
Tell me oh wise one, what do I do in a supply demand, market share situation like this?
(This would be where you dodge the question, change the subject, sling some insults or Cut & Run).

So as long as we're talking credentials, I am not some coward who claims to be the head of a business but won't back it up with proof. Our site has been up for years and is easily verifiable.
Of course, any electrical contractor who isn't a complete idiot, will have a site that has been registered with ICANN for a decade or more. So let's see who's full of sh1t. What's your website address? Show me yours and I'm happy to show you mine.

So. We done calling each other a fraud yet? Or are you ready to show the proof I'm happy to provide? And when I prove who I am, are you going to have the character to apologize?

Didn't think so....

So you're comparing an opportunity at ONE CONTRACT to the general decisions of a business owner to RISK capital WITHOUT something just landing in their laps? Perhaps like a decision to move a STRUGGLING business to a better location??

Sorry mr. countryclub.. Not the same.. And indeed it's a special case of what I and others are facing at the moment.. Congrats on the opportunity -- by all means -- go do it.. But you'll be OUT of that CONTRACT before the increased taxes, the increased healthcare costs, the increased energy costs, the increased compliance costs actually hit.. Good for you..

I'm just worried that the folks you hire in for that bonanza won't have a clue that's it's based on ONE contract until you have to lay them off at the end.. The majority of us DON'T run our businesses on a vision of the "next job".. Take the blinders off and look at the GENERAL decisions that need to get made.. And I'm not ATTACKING you -- just encouraging you to look beyond your personal experience when you debate politics in general..

Well let's look at the guy who replied, calling me a fraud. An Electrical contractor. Let's say KB Homes comes to town and needs an electrical contractor. Danm! I guess he can't take the $800K in gross revenues for wiring all those houses?
Because after all, the contract is only good for the one year that it will take to build the subdivision. Kinda like the contract I have with our clients - and of course anyone coming on board during my ONE or TWO PERSON "hiring bonanza", as you call it. It will be over within a year. Which means whomever I hire will only be able to make $70K - $100K during that year. So you think that even knowing this, they won't want the work? What is your reasoning for this?
The other thing you don't consider is that this opportunity enables me to hire and aggressively pursue new contracts during that year. Bigger contracts that I can now handle because I've already got the man power. That was exactly how we built our business the first time, before my brother got sick and we had to close down for a bit.

In either case, the (business savvy) electrical or construction contractor, IT Consultant, lawyer, t-shirt maker, whatever, isn't going to turn down business because Boogey Man Obama may or may not ever raise taxes in the year 2078 or some such nonsense. Not if they want to ever grow or even survive, for that matter.

What I'm saying is that business people living on "opportunities" versus business people living on expected market outlooks -- the decisions are very different. The latter don't want to face a situation where you "have to close down for a bit" as you did. And in your example -- that "opportunity" might not even present itself if KB homes decided NOT to build a new subdivision because their land acquistion costs just went up by the +6% of tax the old geezer farmer was facing when selling his land to them. Because for that one year -- the old geezer farmer was to become the iconic EVIL RICH MILLIONAIRE that you hear about 12 times in every Obama speech. (whether that land sale is income or cap gains doesn't really matter to me -- ALL taxes on "the rich" are in play because of the class warfare thats raging -- the left are just too stupid to know the diff between gains and income tax).

If you think I'm fighting daily for YOU PERSONALLY to keep $60,000 more of that $1Mill windfall, don't flatter yourself --- it's not about YOU (or me). It's a marker on table against the onslaught of unrestrained and undisciplined spending without budgeting. A marker against theiving $3Trill from Universal "insurance programs" and then not being responsible enough to prepare an economy in which it's possible to pay back that theft.

Not because I LOVE all the rich -- but because I don't think that Jay Leno or Phil Mickelson should personally be responsible for the tab for piss-poor governance that WE have condoned. And the percentage of land that the evil rich geezer farmer has taken from him by the govt when he sells it.

 

[flacaltenn]

So Windbag. What data are you using to make this assertion?

In my experience, our company which is very sizeable is aggressively outsourcing jobs overseas. In fact, every division VP is responsible for creating a plan to show the savings they are generating via off-shoring. I know because I sat in those meetings.

Our company has never been unionized so you can't blame the unions.

Lastly I sincerely doubt our business is so cutting edge that we are the only ones. If the situation in my company is an outlier I would love to see the data point since I have based a share of my investment strategy on this macro trend so I am not asking to be belligerent.

Wow, personal anecdotes to trump the fact that job growth has been going up for decades. You are absolutely right, you have proven me, the BLS, and the entire world economy, wrong. Thanks for correcting me.

Why do you have to respond to any legitimate request for data like an ass? Are you not getting any or something?

I recognize my data point is a single data point. Granted the Fortune 50 company where I work has significant impact but it is a data point none the less. And I am not talking about decades. I am talking what has been happening since trans-oceanic fiber optic cables have been laid dramatically reducing communication costs. What would cost $2.50 a minute now costs fractions of a penny. Combine that with products increasing becoming digital and you have a significant impact.

From my perspective things have shifted dramatically. I could be wrong and if you have a dissenting viewpoint and alternative information I would love to see it. This shouldn't be a partisan discussion. It is a fundamental impact that should be understood and then we can argue how best to address if in fact it is the case.

Don't worry dog -- Windbag's numbers are probably correct. Except that the MAJORITY of those jobs we are growing are coming OUT of manufacturing and technical sectors and INTO service industries. So we are literally servicing each other to death now.. What we are LOSING are the export generating jobs, the CAREER type of jobs that used to give labor some dignity. And unless we start thinking about how to restore HIGHER PAYING career type jobs with a 21st vision of producing goods and technology -- we'll all eventually be working for McDonalds or WalMart.

 

[Quantum Windbag]

Windbag:

You had me cheering there for your last post until...

Searches are always unreasonable, which is why you need a warrant issued by a judge.

You must have missed the point a few months ago on rulings (state-level) that you should just LET the police into your house and complain later (in one case)... And in the other case, no warrant is needed if the police hear "flushing" noises (so if someone knocks while you're on the can -- Don't flush).

All this romantic horseshit about Rights and Liberty is so yesterday...

I'll thank you next time. But now I'm just gonna go pout about the hopelessness.

I know the feeling.

 

[Quantum Windbag]

So Windbag. What data are you using to make this assertion?

In my experience, our company which is very sizeable is aggressively outsourcing jobs overseas. In fact, every division VP is responsible for creating a plan to show the savings they are generating via off-shoring. I know because I sat in those meetings.

Our company has never been unionized so you can't blame the unions.

Lastly I sincerely doubt our business is so cutting edge that we are the only ones. If the situation in my company is an outlier I would love to see the data point since I have based a share of my investment strategy on this macro trend so I am not asking to be belligerent.

Wow, personal anecdotes to trump the fact that job growth has been going up for decades. You are absolutely right, you have proven me, the BLS, and the entire world economy, wrong. Thanks for correcting me.

Why do you have to respond to any legitimate request for data like an ass? Are you not getting any or something?

I recognize my data point is a single data point. Granted the Fortune 50 company where I work has significant impact but it is a data point none the less. And I am not talking about decades. I am talking what has been happening since trans-oceanic fiber optic cables have been laid dramatically reducing communication costs. What would cost $2.50 a minute now costs fractions of a penny. Combine that with products increasing becoming digital and you have a significant impact.

From my perspective things have shifted dramatically. I could be wrong and if you have a dissenting viewpoint and alternative information I would love to see it. This shouldn't be a partisan discussion. It is a fundamental impact that should be understood and then we can argue how best to address if in fact it is the case.

Because I am an ass.

The BLS has decades of data about how free trade creates jobs. If you are part of an industry that is loosing jobs it is not because "jobs" are being shipped overseas, it is because competition and innovation are changing what skills are profitable in one place and your industry is not adapting. My guess is it has been propped up for years by government policy.

Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject

 

[Quantum Windbag]

Because everything requires context and intrepretation. You can't right a literal document that can stand the test of time because the context changes too much. Have you read the Federalist Papers?

Be specific. Tell me exactly what about the Constitution is outdated. (By the way, I actually know the answer to that question, and can back it up. I am also willing to bet that, whatever you think is outdated, it is not what is actually outdated.)

I am talking context. The potential to electronically scan messages is not something that was envisioned at the time of the founders. You have to be generic enough that you can apply intent to changing conditions.

So you are missing my point.

How does the medium of a message change anything? If the government does not have the authority under the Constitution to open my mail it does not have the authority to listen to my cell phone. It isn't applying the Constitution that is complicated, it is working out ways to ignore it that argue that something is not protected simply because we do it differently now than we they did in the 18th century.

 

[flacaltenn]

WindBag:

The BLS has decades of data about how free trade creates jobs. If you are part of an industry that is loosing jobs it is not because "jobs" are being shipped overseas, it is because competition and innovation are changing what skills are profitable in one place and your industry is not adapting. My guess is it has been propped up for years by government policy

I'm not picking on you here but the sentence should read "... it is because competition and primarily "cheap foreign labor" are changing what skills are profitable in America and your industry is DYING. It's not so much that they couldn't adapt somewhat and modernize to compete with cheap overseas labor -- it's just that all the other regulation and taxation and capital access pressures makes this the EASY choice right now. Change the business climate so that updating manufacturing is a viable option and maybe things change.

I assert that we probably shouldn't make plain ole shoes anymore. That sounds vile and harsh, but it's realistic. There are 30 BILLION potential shoe-makers on the planet, we need to suck it up and do the harder stuff..

Maybe we should make CUSTOM shoes or specialty shoes with 21st manufacturing techniques. The deal was (and we were told this for 15 years at least) -- that future American jobs would need to shift to higher skills and better methodologies. Robotics, artificial intelligience, materials science, nanotech, biotech, ect, ect. BUT WindyBag -- It's not doing anyone any good to brag about how we've shifted lots of jobs into the WRONG sectors with the resultant slide in wages, and stability. If we don't improve education and get AMERICAN kids into more science and tech jobs and LESS MBAs --- we are doomed..

Bottom line -- BLS shows job growth alright. But free trade WILL result in a huge loss of HIGHER WAGE jobs (middle class section of workers) and force the economy to OVERCOMPETE in the service and govt sector for positions. Until those sectors spiral down the wages as we currently seeing unfold..

UNLESS -- we consciously are focusing on pumping up the higher skilled job sectors and reanimate manufacturing with new methods.

 

[IndependntLogic]

For those of you that think that the U.S. Constitution is a bunch of words by a bunch "old white guys" that mean nothing and can be disregarded or interpreted any way you wish, get the *%# out of my country.

You are wrong and not welcome here.

Well Chief (assuming that's you in the pic), I hate to ever argue with anyone from the Goat Locker but one of the things that we swore to protect, was the right of people to think or feel whatever they want , that they can interpret the USC as wrongly as humanly possible, and so they can disregarded completely the USC as long as they obey the laws fo our land.

So while their views and opinions may infuriate either or both of us, we fought them to have the freedom to express those opinions. Jus sayin...

 

[IndependntLogic]

So you're comparing an opportunity at ONE CONTRACT to the general decisions of a business owner to RISK capital WITHOUT something just landing in their laps? Perhaps like a decision to move a STRUGGLING business to a better location??

Sorry mr. countryclub.. Not the same.. And indeed it's a special case of what I and others are facing at the moment.. Congrats on the opportunity -- by all means -- go do it.. But you'll be OUT of that CONTRACT before the increased taxes, the increased healthcare costs, the increased energy costs, the increased compliance costs actually hit.. Good for you..

I'm just worried that the folks you hire in for that bonanza won't have a clue that's it's based on ONE contract until you have to lay them off at the end.. The majority of us DON'T run our businesses on a vision of the "next job".. Take the blinders off and look at the GENERAL decisions that need to get made.. And I'm not ATTACKING you -- just encouraging you to look beyond your personal experience when you debate politics in general..

Well let's look at the guy who replied, calling me a fraud. An Electrical contractor. Let's say KB Homes comes to town and needs an electrical contractor. Danm! I guess he can't take the $800K in gross revenues for wiring all those houses?
Because after all, the contract is only good for the one year that it will take to build the subdivision. Kinda like the contract I have with our clients - and of course anyone coming on board during my ONE or TWO PERSON "hiring bonanza", as you call it. It will be over within a year. Which means whomever I hire will only be able to make $70K - $100K during that year. So you think that even knowing this, they won't want the work? What is your reasoning for this?
The other thing you don't consider is that this opportunity enables me to hire and aggressively pursue new contracts during that year. Bigger contracts that I can now handle because I've already got the man power. That was exactly how we built our business the first time, before my brother got sick and we had to close down for a bit.

In either case, the (business savvy) electrical or construction contractor, IT Consultant, lawyer, t-shirt maker, whatever, isn't going to turn down business because Boogey Man Obama may or may not ever raise taxes in the year 2078 or some such nonsense. Not if they want to ever grow or even survive, for that matter.

What I'm saying is that business people living on "opportunities" versus business people living on expected market outlooks -- the decisions are very different. The latter don't want to face a situation where you "have to close down for a bit" as you did.

We were enjoying a lot of success when we closed. I set my 2nd up in his own business before we left for Texas, to take care of my brother who'd been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. So it had nothing to do with market outlooks etc... .

And in your example -- that "opportunity" might not even present itself if KB homes decided NOT to build a new subdivision because their land acquistion costs just went up by the +6% of tax the old geezer farmer was facing when selling his land to them.

This is a bullsh1t argument. It's a dodge. So what if they decided to build? What then? Let your competition get the business and all the potential future business?

Because for that one year -- the old geezer farmer was to become the iconic EVIL RICH MILLIONAIRE that you hear about 12 times in every Obama speech. (whether that land sale is income or cap gains doesn't really matter to me -- ALL taxes on "the rich" are in play because of the class warfare thats raging -- the left are just too stupid to know the diff between gains and income tax).

We have always had a progressive tax. You just drink the kool-aid fed to you by FOX etc... and now buy into it. No it's not fair and yes I would change some things but this is not some recent class welfare invented by Obama or whatever nonsense.

If you think I'm fighting daily for YOU PERSONALLY to keep $60,000 more of that $1Mill windfall, don't flatter yourself --- it's not about YOU (or me). It's a marker on table against the onslaught of unrestrained and undisciplined spending without budgeting. A marker against theiving $3Trill from Universal "insurance programs" and then not being responsible enough to prepare an economy in which it's possible to pay back that theft.

I love that you are so concerned about people who will have to get by on a mere $75K a month. It's heart-warming!

Not because I LOVE all the rich -- but because I don't think that Jay Leno or Phil Mickelson should personally be responsible for the tab for piss-poor governance that WE have condoned. And the percentage of land that the evil rich geezer farmer has taken from him by the govt when he sells it.

I like Phil. I've golfed with him a few times. More with his dad, Phil Sr. Great family. His mom works with the elderly. Great woman. None of them would lose sleep over a bit more in taxes but that was never actually my point.

 

[flacaltenn]

So we should stop insisting that govt concentrate on just their FUNDAMENTAL duties (that they are currently obviously ignoring) and allow the left to outright villify free markets and "the rich" INCLUDING your golfing buddy Phil Mickelson in the interest of your percieved NEUTRALITY in the class wars?

Would certainly save me a lot and energy fighting for fair ballot access and market friendliness if you had Phil ring me up and just verify that he's entirely happy with Trill $$$ budget deficits and he's just peachy kicking in another $190,000 grand a year to set things right.

Like pissing into a colander hoping to fill it up..

If you don't feel threatened by the 10 mentions of how evil you are (or might be in good year) every time a leading democrat speaks --- then I think you and your personal political "philosophy" have no sense of self-preservation.. Because if you think that 6% bump in the higher brackets is ALL that they are after -- you're deluded.

You can't flush your crapper without govt intervention.. And you want us to believe that business people are happy with MORE intrusive and massive govt?

 

[IndependntLogic]

So we should stop insisting that govt concentrate on just their FUNDAMENTAL duties (that they are currently obviously ignoring) and allow the left to outright villify free markets and "the rich" INCLUDING your golfing buddy Phil Mickelson in the interest of your percieved NEUTRALITY in the class wars?

Would certainly save me a lot and energy fighting for fair ballot access and market friendliness if you had Phil ring me up and just verify that he's entirely happy with Trill $$$ budget deficits and he's just peachy kicking in another $190,000 grand a year to set things right.

Like pissing into a colander hoping to fill it up..

If you don't feel threatened by the 10 mentions of how evil you are (or might be in good year) every time a leading democrat speaks --- then I think you and your personal political "philosophy" have no sense of self-preservation.. Because if you think that 6% bump in the higher brackets is ALL that they are after -- you're deluded.

You can't flush your crapper without govt intervention.. And you want us to believe that business people are happy with MORE intrusive and massive govt?

You're very emotional. I recommend a nice merlot or an 18 year old single malt. I like a scotch with a Monte Cristo, myself.

So okay. We are taxed. Boo hoo. Bummer. Couple things here. You talked about government intrusion then switched to taxes. Well okay dokey. Frankly I'm just not that freaked out about taxes but if you want to bicker about this all night fine. Argue this:

When a demand for a product or services goes up, you actually believe that companies aren't going to capitalize on it? If that is your belief, you either never owned a business or never owned one for long.
Right now, because of our niche, the demand for our services has surged. Only a fool would tell me not to seize the opportunity to do so because the Oboogeyman may raises taxes some day. No company has ever said "Oh no... we won't increase our profits! After all, months or years from now, some politician may or may not increase taxes!".
If the demand and opportunity are there, a company should and will seize it. Otherwise, they need to fire their CEO and get someone with half a brain.
Here's another one: If you sell typewriters, and PC's have eliminated the demand for them, will it matter how much you are taxed? Nope. No demand, no hiring.
This is SO friggin' simple. I can't believe how easily people are brainwashed...

 

[flacaltenn]

So we should stop insisting that govt concentrate on just their FUNDAMENTAL duties (that they are currently obviously ignoring) and allow the left to outright villify free markets and "the rich" INCLUDING your golfing buddy Phil Mickelson in the interest of your percieved NEUTRALITY in the class wars?

Would certainly save me a lot and energy fighting for fair ballot access and market friendliness if you had Phil ring me up and just verify that he's entirely happy with Trill $$$ budget deficits and he's just peachy kicking in another $190,000 grand a year to set things right.

Like pissing into a colander hoping to fill it up..

If you don't feel threatened by the 10 mentions of how evil you are (or might be in good year) every time a leading democrat speaks --- then I think you and your personal political "philosophy" have no sense of self-preservation.. Because if you think that 6% bump in the higher brackets is ALL that they are after -- you're deluded.

You can't flush your crapper without govt intervention.. And you want us to believe that business people are happy with MORE intrusive and massive govt?

You're very emotional. I recommend a nice merlot or an 18 year old single malt. I like a scotch with a Monte Cristo, myself.

So okay. We are taxed. Boo hoo. Bummer. Couple things here. You talked about government intrusion then switched to taxes. Well okay dokey. Frankly I'm just not that freaked out about taxes but if you want to bicker about this all night fine. Argue this:

When a demand for a product or services goes up, you actually believe that companies aren't going to capitalize on it? If that is your belief, you either never owned a business or never owned one for long.
Right now, because of our niche, the demand for our services has surged. Only a fool would tell me not to seize the opportunity to do so because the Oboogeyman may raises taxes some day. No company has ever said "Oh no... we won't increase our profits! After all, months or years from now, some politician may or may not increase taxes!".
If the demand and opportunity are there, a company should and will seize it. Otherwise, they need to fire their CEO and get someone with half a brain.
Here's another one: If you sell typewriters, and PC's have eliminated the demand for them, will it matter how much you are taxed? Nope. No demand, no hiring.
This is SO friggin' simple. I can't believe how easily people are brainwashed...

You better watch those friggin Monte Christos. They are not good for you..

You know mr.countryclubindependent-- I SENSE you've spent too much time in the service sector.. Competition in the service sector is Par3 with the kiddies compared to the folks like me who are trying to fix shit going bad in China at 3AM in the fucking morning. My background is Silicon Valley. Both the technology side and plenty of exposure on the Venture Capital side. We cannot find GREAT economic advisors in this country right now because they are relying on "book smarts" from the 60's and 70's to diagnose and treat the illness. I don't think there's a financial advisor in the entire OBAMA admin who's actually looked out the window and sensed what has changed since they got their MBA. And a LARGE part of that illness right now is that we woke up not long ago and discovered that

1) We are all servicing each other rather than creating goods. Or flocking to govt jobs to save us.
2) The world got flatter and we probably shouldn't be trying to make basketballs anymore.
3) Our graduates schools in tech and science are filled with foreigners not American kids.
4) The govt seems bound and determined to suck the living life every remaining sector of manufacturing by subsidizing dishwashers to the tune of $75 each in tax rebates, impose all kinds of increases in energy, labor, health costs and mindless regulation.

Your view of competition in the service industry and how it is secure from all of the disaster-pointing items listed above doesn't mean CRAP to fixing American jobs and the economy. The fact that you realize we shouldn't be making typewriters anymore or in fact MOST consumer items means you're not a brain-dead moderate. But the kind of jobs that NEED to be created are not SERVICE JOBS. And competition and regulation and costs in industrial goods and high tech company areas are a whole other animal. I ain't worried about advertising and competing around town with other Country members who pay the SAME TAXES and abide by the SAME RULES!

Do ya catch the diff???

Well gee -- maybe we SHOULD tax the SERVICE industry more heavily.. That might just be the ticket to get this country OUT of servitude and into ventures that can produce HIGHER paying jobs less threatened by spiraling down wages. I LIKE this conversation..

 

[Sactowndog]

Because I am an ass.

The BLS has decades of data about how free trade creates jobs. If you are part of an industry that is loosing jobs it is not because "jobs" are being shipped overseas, it is because competition and innovation are changing what skills are profitable in one place and your industry is not adapting. My guess is it has been propped up for years by government policy.

Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject

Okay a couple points.

This isn't a question of the industry adapting. The "company" is doing fine. They are activiely outsourcing US jobs and benefiting from the lowered cost.

From what I have seen is the data you posted, jobs in the past decade have been flat. It isn't in the form of a pivot table but I suspect if I were to adjust for construction which was a bubble and government jobs which have increased then jobs would have declined.

Also this isn't free trade. Yes I agree free trade makes sense but this is a wholesale shift of production enabled by communication cost shifts and the digitalzation of products. And in looking at the data I suspect it is not just one industry.

 

[Sactowndog]

You know mr.countryclubindependent-- I SENSE you've spent too much time in the service sector.. Competition in the service sector is Par3 with the kiddies compared to the folks like me who are trying to fix shit going bad in China at 3AM in the fucking morning. My background is Silicon Valley. Both the technology side and plenty of exposure on the Venture Capital side. We cannot find GREAT economic advisors in this country right now because they are relying on "book smarts" from the 60's and 70's to diagnose and treat the illness. I don't think there's a financial advisor in the entire OBAMA admin who's actually looked out the window and sensed what has changed since they got their MBA. And a LARGE part of that illness right now is that we woke up not long ago and discovered that

Ha! I am an independent pretty much having the same debate with Quantum.

The only difference is while I agree the left is looking at the 60's and 70's, the right is looking at the 80's under Reagan and neither is worth a damm in the new flat world model we now face.

In fact, the more I think through the implications in this new model the more I think eliminating the Capital Gains tax as proposed by many Republicans would be a disaster and not a help.

 

[flacaltenn]

You know mr.countryclubindependent-- I SENSE you've spent too much time in the service sector.. Competition in the service sector is Par3 with the kiddies compared to the folks like me who are trying to fix shit going bad in China at 3AM in the fucking morning. My background is Silicon Valley. Both the technology side and plenty of exposure on the Venture Capital side. We cannot find GREAT economic advisors in this country right now because they are relying on "book smarts" from the 60's and 70's to diagnose and treat the illness. I don't think there's a financial advisor in the entire OBAMA admin who's actually looked out the window and sensed what has changed since they got their MBA. And a LARGE part of that illness right now is that we woke up not long ago and discovered that

Ha! I am an independent pretty much having the same debate with Quantum.

The only difference is while I agree the left is looking at the 60's and 70's, the right is looking at the 80's under Reagan and neither is worth a damm in the new flat world model we now face.

In fact, the more I think through the implications in this new model the more I think eliminating the Capital Gains tax as proposed by many Republicans would be a disaster and not a help.

If it applies Dog-- don't take the slight on MBAs too hard. It's not like we don't need a few. But if our economy converts primarily to service and the ONLY people left in the "manufacturing" sector are the MBAs who THINK they have the China dragon by the tail, we are sorely doomed..

Since YOU ARE one of those decision-makers and in the fight. You might want to just skim ---

http://www.usmessageboard.com/econo...dead-and-maybe-our-hopes-too.html#post3943059

 

[IndependntLogic]

So we should stop insisting that govt concentrate on just their FUNDAMENTAL duties (that they are currently obviously ignoring) and allow the left to outright villify free markets and "the rich" INCLUDING your golfing buddy Phil Mickelson in the interest of your percieved NEUTRALITY in the class wars?

Would certainly save me a lot and energy fighting for fair ballot access and market friendliness if you had Phil ring me up and just verify that he's entirely happy with Trill $$$ budget deficits and he's just peachy kicking in another $190,000 grand a year to set things right.

Like pissing into a colander hoping to fill it up..

If you don't feel threatened by the 10 mentions of how evil you are (or might be in good year) every time a leading democrat speaks --- then I think you and your personal political "philosophy" have no sense of self-preservation.. Because if you think that 6% bump in the higher brackets is ALL that they are after -- you're deluded.

You can't flush your crapper without govt intervention.. And you want us to believe that business people are happy with MORE intrusive and massive govt?

You're very emotional. I recommend a nice merlot or an 18 year old single malt. I like a scotch with a Monte Cristo, myself.

So okay. We are taxed. Boo hoo. Bummer. Couple things here. You talked about government intrusion then switched to taxes. Well okay dokey. Frankly I'm just not that freaked out about taxes but if you want to bicker about this all night fine. Argue this:

When a demand for a product or services goes up, you actually believe that companies aren't going to capitalize on it? If that is your belief, you either never owned a business or never owned one for long.
Right now, because of our niche, the demand for our services has surged. Only a fool would tell me not to seize the opportunity to do so because the Oboogeyman may raises taxes some day. No company has ever said "Oh no... we won't increase our profits! After all, months or years from now, some politician may or may not increase taxes!".
If the demand and opportunity are there, a company should and will seize it. Otherwise, they need to fire their CEO and get someone with half a brain.
Here's another one: If you sell typewriters, and PC's have eliminated the demand for them, will it matter how much you are taxed? Nope. No demand, no hiring.
This is SO friggin' simple. I can't believe how easily people are brainwashed...

You better watch those friggin Monte Christos. They are not good for you..

You know mr.countryclubindependent-- I SENSE you've spent too much time in the service sector.. Competition in the service sector is Par3 with the kiddies compared to the folks like me who are trying to fix shit going bad in China at 3AM in the fucking morning. My background is Silicon Valley. Both the technology side and plenty of exposure on the Venture Capital side. We cannot find GREAT economic advisors in this country right now because they are relying on "book smarts" from the 60's and 70's to diagnose and treat the illness. I don't think there's a financial advisor in the entire OBAMA admin who's actually looked out the window and sensed what has changed since they got their MBA. And a LARGE part of that illness right now is that we woke up not long ago and discovered that

1) We are all servicing each other rather than creating goods. Or flocking to govt jobs to save us.
2) The world got flatter and we probably shouldn't be trying to make basketballs anymore.
3) Our graduates schools in tech and science are filled with foreigners not American kids.
4) The govt seems bound and determined to suck the living life every remaining sector of manufacturing by subsidizing dishwashers to the tune of $75 each in tax rebates, impose all kinds of increases in energy, labor, health costs and mindless regulation.

Your view of competition in the service industry and how it is secure from all of the disaster-pointing items listed above doesn't mean CRAP to fixing American jobs and the economy. The fact that you realize we shouldn't be making typewriters anymore or in fact MOST consumer items means you're not a brain-dead moderate. But the kind of jobs that NEED to be created are not SERVICE JOBS. And competition and regulation and costs in industrial goods and high tech company areas are a whole other animal. I ain't worried about advertising and competing around town with other Country members who pay the SAME TAXES and abide by the SAME RULES!

Do ya catch the diff???

Well gee -- maybe we SHOULD tax the SERVICE industry more heavily.. That might just be the ticket to get this country OUT of servitude and into ventures that can produce HIGHER paying jobs less threatened by spiraling down wages. I LIKE this conversation..

Wait!
Are you saying we don't make things anymore?
That for a long time, we've been trending service vs. manufacturing etc.... for decades now?
That we don't have the kind of talent needed in our UG schools?

Hmmm. So the segments that have adapted best to change, are doing better? That makes business sense. The fact that companies aren't hiring has more to do with demand, available talent pool etc...? I agree completely!
So let's say we made some kind of super solar car. Leave it in the sun for an hour and it runs for a year. Whatever. This is just for example. And we had as many BSEE's as India. And we built them only in America. And taxes were exactly as they were before Bush. And the demand for these cars was through the roof.
Obviously the companies that made them would hire people.

Which was and is my point.
What I find humorous is that many Conservatives condemn taxes by saying they will be passed onto the consumer - when they're not saying that companies will have no way to deal with taxes.

But I enjoy this discussion too. Whether or not we agree, it's obvious you're a lot smarter than the usual "Okay you Liberal Statist Facist Dog-Molester...." or "Since you obviously want a nanny state to take care of you..." or whatever.

 

[Sactowndog]

WindBag:

Maybe we should make CUSTOM shoes or specialty shoes with 21st manufacturing techniques. The deal was (and we were told this for 15 years at least) -- that future American jobs would need to shift to higher skills and better methodologies. Robotics, artificial intelligience, materials science, nanotech, biotech, ect, ect. BUT WindyBag -- It's not doing anyone any good to brag about how we've shifted lots of jobs into the WRONG sectors with the resultant slide in wages, and stability. If we don't improve education and get AMERICAN kids into more science and tech jobs and LESS MBAs --- we are doomed..

I don't think that will matter either. The rise of multinational corporations and the increase in WW stock markets have driven two fundamental changes

1) National Capital stock is an out dated concept because Capital Stock is now all global and the linkage between a nations capital stock and a nations jobs base is broken. Most sophisticated investors invest globally today like our grandfathers invested nationally. So policies favored by Republicans that are dependent on this are doomed to failure

2) No country protection of IP. The system of IP protection from a country standpoint is predicated on the fact that if my company protects it then it will be protected for my country. GE with light bulbs, Ford with Engines, Fairchild with transisters. The list goes on. But this is no longer true. The actual product generation is so easily moved overseas that just because a Hewlett-Packard is patent protected with US generated IP the US is not. Case in point is the recent developments of the Memrister which was developed jointly between HP labs and Cal Berkeley and is being manufactured in Korea with no US jobs impact. So Democratic ideals of fundamental research investment and education investment is pointless because production can just be moved as many pointed out with the Obama initiatives.

So the fundamental problem is without country specific IP Protectioin and country specific capital protection jobs will continue to shift overseas until pay versus job scope has narrowed. The problem is an engineer costs 40K in China and a US engineer can't pay back their loans in the US at that salary.

 

[Sactowndog]

Hmmm. So the segments that have adapted best to change, are doing better? That makes business sense. The fact that companies aren't hiring has more to do with demand, available talent pool etc...? I agree completely!
So let's say we made some kind of super solar car. Leave it in the sun for an hour and it runs for a year. Whatever. This is just for example. And we had as many BSEE's as India. And we built them only in America. And taxes were exactly as they were before Bush. And the demand for these cars was through the roof.
Obviously the companies that made them would hire people.

Yes they would hire people but where? Your assertion that we would build them only in America is likely no longer true. Now cars aren't a great example because you can't digitize the product completely which tends to drive local production.

In our company business revenue has increased, we have gained market share. Company is doing well but US employment is falling. My team has two people from France, three in the US and one in Costa Rica. When the last US person left we backfilled his position in Costa Rica.

 

[Sactowndog]

Ha! I am an independent pretty much having the same debate with Quantum.

The only difference is while I agree the left is looking at the 60's and 70's, the right is looking at the 80's under Reagan and neither is worth a damm in the new flat world model we now face.

In fact, the more I think through the implications in this new model the more I think eliminating the Capital Gains tax as proposed by many Republicans would be a disaster and not a help.

If it applies Dog-- don't take the slight on MBAs too hard. It's not like we don't need a few. But if our economy converts primarily to service and the ONLY people left in the "manufacturing" sector are the MBAs who THINK they have the China dragon by the tail, we are sorely doomed..

Since YOU ARE one of those decision-makers and in the fight. You might want to just skim ---

http://www.usmessageboard.com/econo...dead-and-maybe-our-hopes-too.html#post3943059[/QUOTE]

Flat... I am saying I agree and am just extending your point to include the 80"s. I am not sure what your are driving at with the YOU ARE comment.

 

[flacaltenn]

Ha! I am an independent pretty much having the same debate with Quantum.

The only difference is while I agree the left is looking at the 60's and 70's, the right is looking at the 80's under Reagan and neither is worth a damm in the new flat world model we now face.

In fact, the more I think through the implications in this new model the more I think eliminating the Capital Gains tax as proposed by many Republicans would be a disaster and not a help.

If it applies Dog-- don't take the slight on MBAs too hard. It's not like we don't need a few. But if our economy converts primarily to service and the ONLY people left in the "manufacturing" sector are the MBAs who THINK they have the China dragon by the tail, we are sorely doomed..

Since YOU ARE one of those decision-makers and in the fight. You might want to just skim ---

http://www.usmessageboard.com/econo...dead-and-maybe-our-hopes-too.html#post3943059

Flat... I am saying I agree and am just extending your point to include the 80"s. I am not sure what your are driving at with the YOU ARE comment.

I was just trying to flatter you as a captain of industry.. Or at least a Bosun's Mate.

 

[Quantum Windbag]

WindBag:

The BLS has decades of data about how free trade creates jobs. If you are part of an industry that is loosing jobs it is not because "jobs" are being shipped overseas, it is because competition and innovation are changing what skills are profitable in one place and your industry is not adapting. My guess is it has been propped up for years by government policy

I'm not picking on you here but the sentence should read "... it is because competition and primarily "cheap foreign labor" are changing what skills are profitable in America and your industry is DYING. It's not so much that they couldn't adapt somewhat and modernize to compete with cheap overseas labor -- it's just that all the other regulation and taxation and capital access pressures makes this the EASY choice right now. Change the business climate so that updating manufacturing is a viable option and maybe things change.

I assert that we probably shouldn't make plain ole shoes anymore. That sounds vile and harsh, but it's realistic. There are 30 BILLION potential shoe-makers on the planet, we need to suck it up and do the harder stuff..

Maybe we should make CUSTOM shoes or specialty shoes with 21st manufacturing techniques. The deal was (and we were told this for 15 years at least) -- that future American jobs would need to shift to higher skills and better methodologies. Robotics, artificial intelligience, materials science, nanotech, biotech, ect, ect. BUT WindyBag -- It's not doing anyone any good to brag about how we've shifted lots of jobs into the WRONG sectors with the resultant slide in wages, and stability. If we don't improve education and get AMERICAN kids into more science and tech jobs and LESS MBAs --- we are doomed..

Bottom line -- BLS shows job growth alright. But free trade WILL result in a huge loss of HIGHER WAGE jobs (middle class section of workers) and force the economy to OVERCOMPETE in the service and govt sector for positions. Until those sectors spiral down the wages as we currently seeing unfold..

UNLESS -- we consciously are focusing on pumping up the higher skilled job sectors and reanimate manufacturing with new methods.

That is not what I am saying. I am saying that your industry has two choices, learn to compete with the cheap foreign labor, or die.

There are a few simple facts that you miss in your insistence that free trade results in high paying jobs moving out of the country. The fact is that higher paying jobs go where the best workers are, not where the cheapest workers are. If "high paying" jobs like automobile manufacturing are moving out of the country it is not because the workforce in Somalia is less expensive, it is because all of the costs in Detroit are too high. Wages paid is a deciding factor only when everything else is equal, and the playing field is heavily skewed toward foreign countries by excessive regulation and taxation in the United States.

I can guarantee you that if we brought the cost of government down on all levels companies would love to take advantage of the US labor force's reputation for productivity and quality.

Look at that, not once did I say that anyone has to learn new skills, yet I presented a solution to the problem you perceive. Don't get me wrong, people would learn new skills if we reformed government, but it would be because they were trying to compete for higher paying jobs, not so that they could get entry level jobs in an entirely new field.