Stock market will crash in 60 days...

[DudleySmith]

Certainly not to your average class neighbor Mr. Smith

Spending Under President George W. Bush

The numbers are in. With the release of the first estimate of the FY 2009 budget, we can now summarize and assess President Bush’s fiscal legacy.

www.mercatus.org

President Bush added thousands of new federal subsidy programs during his eight years in office. In 2008, there were 1,816 subsidy programs in the federal budget that spread hundreds of billions of dollars annually to special interest groups such as state governments, businesses, nonprofit groups, and individuals. The number of subsidy programs has grown by 30 percent since 2000 and by 54 percent since 1990.

During Bush’s two terms. Between FY2002 and FY2009, discretionary spending rose 96 percent.

Probably you believe that Goldman Sachs, Stanley Morgan, Bank of America, etc. etc. are not run and owned by super-rich people/elites who lost money in the stock market,
but are run and owned by their common employees.

Aside from miss-management companies like Chrysler were bailed out due to insolvency in regards to their stock-market value crash. - no more collateral's to protect the interests of the lender. - e.g. a Bank or an investment group - so bailing out Chrysler and e.g. GM was to protect the major shareholders and lenders.

His tax cut's cost the USA an approximate US$ 5Trillon - and any statistic will show as to who actually profited from these tax-cuts, not your average neighbor Mr. Smith

He doesn't understand how the 'limited liability' scam and bankruptcy courts work, and how much of that 'private debt' the govt. assumed to take it off the hands of the bankers and insurance companies and trading firms like Goldman's. They like to pretend it's 'food stamps n stuff' causing all their 'problems'.

 

[Kruska]

But you said Bush gave them money for their stock market losses.
Were you lying? Or just stupid?

If you think that Bush handed them money from out his own pockets or handed them personal checks - then you must be stupid.
Obviously you got no idea as to how financial "bailouts" work and are performed.

 

[Dekster]

...says best selling author Larry McDonald.

"They're playing catch up, and while they were doing quantitative easing in 2021, inflation started to rage and now they're trying to catch up," The Bear Traps Report founder Larry McDonald said Wednesday on "Mornings with Maria."

"Our 21 Lehman systemic risk indicators that look at equity and credit point to one of the highest probabilities of a crash in the stock market looking out 60 days," McDonald, who is also known for writing a best-selling book on the Lehman Brothers collapse, cautioned.

Stock market will crash in 60 days, best-selling author on Lehman collapse warns

Market risk indicators are signaling one of the highest probabilities of a crash in the next 60 days. The Bear Traps report founder Larry McDonald advises on how to allocate your capital.

www.foxbusiness.com

Don't have anything to add to that...not a stock expert. It just feels very very Black Monday-esque.

The title of that article is a little misleading...McDonald actually says "best chance" if the S&P earning fail to meet expectations.

I wasn't around in 1929...but I was in 1987.

You experts can discuss the ins and outs of the article...I'm just going to read the replies.

Well, most of the replies.

Not the replies from those who know less than I do who will unfailingly post that everything is fine because hope and fairy dust and a potato in the White House.

Everything is fine because hope and fairy dust and a potato in the White House...and because I sold off a massive chunk of my brokerage in anticipation of a correction...and having to pay a lot of college tuition in out near future. Can't really afford to ride out another correction given how slow recoveries have gotten. The December numbers sort of spooked me. We lost jobs but the jobs report "seasonal adjustment" made it seem like we gained a billion new workers and consumer spending was very weak in December which was hidden in the 4th quarter report by an early surge in spending in October and early November.

I don't expect a "crash", but the high interest will start diverting investments away from the markets. Gas prices seem to be falling locally again, new and used car lots are filling back up, yada yada. I definitely feel a softening in the economy.

 

[DudleySmith]

lol 4 to 5% is not anywhere near 'high interest'.

 

[BasicHumanUnit]

I'm still reeling from being out of diesel fuel since Thanksgiving.

The next Biden Shortage...Diesel Fuel...

Diesel shortages coming to the East Coast as fuel prices surge over $6... No fuel...no food. Not just no trucks hauling food ... no tractors plowing fields, no combines harvesting crops, no trains hauling feed for livestock... Good luck...

www.usmessageboard.com

We're still reeling from how stupid you Marxist can be.
In 2019 diesel was 3.00 / gallon (Donald J Trump was President by the way)

Today (under your assking Biden), it is hovering at $4.50 / gal
Since elementary math is above your pay grade, that's a 50 PERCENT increase.
And since you failed economics 101, I will educate you that diesel fuel is the core of the nations transportation of goods which translates to real and detrimental increases in consumer costs across the board. Economics 101
I'd place a bet you Marxists think the damage done to working Americans is "Funny".

While Diesel fuel might still be available, the impact of Biden's anti-American policies has resulted in a situation with similar effects. But then, you Marxists are well known to be more than happy cutting off your noses to spite your dictator loving faces.
Your side offers nothing but despair, hopelessness, poverty, blight and hatred.

2019 DOE Regional Diesel Fuel Prices | Transport Topics

 

[candycorn]

We're still reeling from how stupid you Marxist can be.
In 2019 diesel was 3.00 / gallon (Donald J Trump was President by the way)

Today it is hovering at $4.50 / gal
Since elementary math is above your pay grade, that's a 50 PERCENT increase.
And since you failed economics 101, I will educate you that diesel fuel is the core of the nations transportation of goods which translates to real and detrimental increases in consumer costs across the board. Economics 101

While Diesel fuel might still be available, the impact of Biden's anti-American policies has resulted in a situation with similar effects. But then, you Marxists are well known to be more than happy cutting off your noses to spite your dictator loving faces.
Your side offers nothing but despair, hopelessness, poverty, blight and hatred.

2019 DOE Regional Diesel Fuel Prices | Transport Topics

Why didn't Trump set the price at $1 a gallon?

 

[BasicHumanUnit]

Why didn't Trump set the price at $1 a gallon?

One moment you rotund clowns state that the president has no control over fuel prices, the next you ask idiotic questions like this. Thanks for proving my point.

Don't you have some "peaceful" looting or Walmart shoplifting to do?

 

[candycorn]

One moment you rotund clowns state that the president has no control over fuel prices, the next you ask idiotic questions like this. Thanks for proving my point.

Don't you have some looting or Walmart shoplifting to do?

Well, if the blob has control... why didn't he set the price at $1?

 

[BasicHumanUnit]

Well, if the blob has control... why didn't he set the price at $1?

I know it's an alien, nasty term to you...but do some research into free market capitalism.
I know exactly where you are trying to go with this...just stop it. It doesn't work with me.

Biden is in the WH, not Donald J. Trump. It's Democrat / Biden policies that caused the damage and the sky high inflation.
Why don't you ask your assking currently occupying the oval office that question?
The two of you can circle-jerk each other til Thanksgiving....provided you bring the flour.

 

[JohnDB]

Why didn't Trump set the price at $1 a gallon?

Because all diesel now has to contain at least 10% bio-diesel...and your engine needs to use DEF as well.

Both of these things together have caused the cost of operating diesel engine vehicles sky high....so transportation costs have skyrocketed.

BUT

Container shipping cost index is down another 3% this week. It's been holding steady since Christmas. Meaning that the demand is very low. There's extra space on container ships and extra containers available.

World Container Index - 05 Oct

05 Oct 2023: Drewry’s World Container Index decreased by 1.1% to $1,389.5 per 40ft container this week.

www.drewry.co.uk

Goods are not moving!

Meaning that the economy is in the crapper. Nobody is buying stuff. The inflation of 50% on food and energy, 30% on housing, and 10% on everything else has eaten up discretionary income.

Productivity is not up...it's down. Those corporate giants who made extra money by the national resignation (lower labor) but increased prices at the same time have screwed themselves over. Now most corporations have the "quiet quitting " phenomenon occurring. Getting less productivity out of staff doing the minimal. Meaning profits are going to disappoint on the S&P.

It ain't looking good for anyone.

 

[BasicHumanUnit]

She'll just repeat her far Left talking point. Mindless lemming Parrots tend to do that no matter how much you spend your time to educate them.

 

[candycorn]

I know it's an alien, nasty term to you...but do some research into free market capitalism.
I know exactly where you are trying to go with this...just stop it. It doesn't work with me.

You're stating that presidents set the price of diesel. I asked you why your blob didn't set it at $1. I know what you're doing...trying to walk back your statement. Stop it. It doesn't work with me.

Biden is in the WH, not Donald J. Trump. It's Democrat / Biden policies that caused the damage and the sky high inflation.

And amazingly its supposedly causing inflation worldwide!!!

Why don't you ask your assking currently occupying the oval office that question?

Ask him why Trump didn't set the price of gas at $1? Because everyone except you knows that the President doesn't set the price of fuels.

The two of you can circle-jerk each other til Thanksgiving....provided you bring the flour.

Sounds like you have a lot of experience in that area...

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

If you think that Bush handed them money from out his own pockets or handed them personal checks - then you must be stupid.
Obviously you got no idea as to how financial "bailouts" work and are performed.

There were no bailouts where taxpayer money was given to anyone for their "stock market losses".

Obviously you got no idea as to how financial "bailouts" work and are performed.

Why don't you explain how they work?

 

[Kruska]

Why don't you explain how they work?

Sorry chummy - I ain't got the time, so go back to high-school and ask your 10th grade economics class teacher to explain it to you.

“Not one major Wall Street executive went to jail for destroying our economy in 2008 as a result of their greed, recklessness and illegal behavior. No. They didn’t go to jail.
They got a trillion-dollar bailout.”

When Fed bailout programs first became public, just six banks — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley — were the recipients of 63 percent of the Fed’s average daily borrowing, representing about a half-trillion dollars at peak periods just for those firms.

Those Fed dollars were doled out through an alphabet soup of different programs (the TAF, the TALF, the TSLF, the TOP, the PDCF, the Maiden Lanes, etc.) and were used to execute major restructurings of the economy. The Fed put up $30 billion to help Chase buy the hulk of Bear Stearns, helping further by buying up $29 billion in bad assets from the dying investment bank.

Citigroup was borrowing $100 billion from the Fed at its peak, Morgan Stanley $107 billion. Fed money was used to broker Bank of America’s absorption of Merrill Lynch and help Wells Fargo buy up Wachovia, in addition to other mergers. At the end of all the rearranging, the 12 largest banks in the country — which had all contributed massively to the crisis and had maybe a week to live when the crash happened, as Bernanke testified — suddenly controlled 70 percent of all bank assets in the United States.

Stop wasting my time with with infantile unsubstantiated one-liner reply's.

 

[Kilroy2]

In 1987 I was 26, and pretty much ignorant to investing and past market performance.
The point is, the Market Ups and Downs have ALWAYS benefited the continual participant.

Don't cash out on FEAR.


This guy ^^^^^ has an agenda and is spreading FEAR..........agenda I say.

Do NOT cash out on FEAR.

One of the reasons that fuel a stock market crash is how many people panic and follow the script. So you got to love when people predict a stock market crash. Well I guess no guts, no glory.

 

[odanny]

Most of my holdings are somewhat recession proofed, but if the market does crash, I have half of my money in cash, and I'm going shopping.

 

[Missourian]

Because all diesel now has to contain at least 10% bio-diesel...and your engine needs to use DEF as well.

Both of these things together have caused the cost of operating diesel engine vehicles sky high....so transportation costs have skyrocketed.

BUT

Container shipping cost index is down another 3% this week. It's been holding steady since Christmas. Meaning that the demand is very low. There's extra space on container ships and extra containers available.

World Container Index - 05 Oct

05 Oct 2023: Drewry’s World Container Index decreased by 1.1% to $1,389.5 per 40ft container this week.

www.drewry.co.uk

Goods are not moving!

Meaning that the economy is in the crapper. Nobody is buying stuff. The inflation of 50% on food and energy, 30% on housing, and 10% on everything else has eaten up discretionary income.

Productivity is not up...it's down. Those corporate giants who made extra money by the national resignation (lower labor) but increased prices at the same time have screwed themselves over. Now most corporations have the "quiet quitting " phenomenon occurring. Getting less productivity out of staff doing the minimal. Meaning profits are going to disappoint on the S&P.

It ain't looking good for anyone.

Links...

Ocean Shipping...

"Xeneta CEO Patrik Berglund said in late November that if spot rates had not stabilized and started to rise again by the first and second quarters of this year, “carriers have played this market really badly.”

By that definition, ocean carriers have played this market really badly.

Spot indexes are not plummeting like they were in the second half of 2022, but they’re still inching downward week after week. The market bottom is proving elusive as transport capacity continues to exceed demand.

The spot market is signaling where annual contract rates are heading in 2023."

Container shipping market yet to bottom as spot rates keep slipping

Container lines are unable to prop up rates because they haven’t culled enough capacity to compensate for weak demand.

www.freightwaves.com

---

Trucking ...

No demand

Even with demand remaining relatively unpredictable, there are no reasons to expect a significant stimulus event in the near future. The Fed is still fighting inflation with interest rate increases and has signaled that it has no reason to think its job is done.

The only macroeconomic indicators with any real strength in them have been the jobs market and revolving credit (credit card debt) dollar amounts, the latter of which being a negative sign for future consumption.

There are far more reasons to expect weakening demand rather than strengthening in 2023, which means trucking operators have to play a waiting game as to when some form of pricing leverage will return. That being said, freight demand is far more fickle than capacity shifts and needs to be monitored more closely even though there appears to be a significant buffer.

Truckload market has 25% too much capacity

Perhaps the biggest question of 2023 for domestic trucking is when will the surplus of capacity fade to a point that prices stop falling. One data point provides deeper insight than simply a count of drivers or tractors.

www.freightwaves.com

---

High fuel prices and low demand...can't get much worse.

 

[Missourian]

In 1987 I was 26, and pretty much ignorant to investing and past market performance.
The point is, the Market Ups and Downs have ALWAYS benefited the continual participant.

Don't cash out on FEAR.


This guy ^^^^^ has an agenda and is spreading FEAR..........agenda I say.

Do NOT cash out on FEAR.

I'm not in.

 

[Missourian]

Some “guru” makes a prediction like this about every other week

You could be right.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Most of my holdings are somewhat recession proofed, but if the market does crash, I have half of my money in cash, and I'm going shopping.

Yep, if there is a crash I have two CDs that will be cashed out and I will be bargain hunting.