Statistics, God and Estimating

[Robert W]

Ten to the 50 marbles 1 cm in diameter would fill 37,400 billion billion spheres the size of earth.
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What is that..........toddler math?
It's gibberish.

I understood him. It was adult illustrations of probability.

 

[Robert W]

Throwing the money-changers out of the Temple explains his OP ...

Money changers were, any there, for commercial purposes. If one sold tomatoes, he was a money changer.

 

[Robert W]

Furthermore, in respect of human rationality itself , like also begets like, and the reason that our cognitive faculties are capable of perceiving truth and reasoning correctly is that they too—when functioning properly in their intended environment—operate as intelligently designed systems that have the formation of true beliefs as their purpose. Only under such conditions does our unspoken faith in human reason make sense. - The Rise of Naturalism and its Problematic Rolein Science and Culture, by Bruce L. Gordon (page 6)

I look at the enormous universe as the beginning, for all we hear about, know about, used telescopes, etc. to discover as proof God exists. No universe is capable of inventing itself.

 

[Robert W]

I would assign those same odds against the great worldwide flood and Jonah's big fish stories being true.

Of course, some stories, that came from the part of the Bible collected by Jews from thousands of years back seem strange today; However strange as they are, can we prove they never happened?

 

[Robert W]

Since I'm a basic mathematics person I don't even try to get into numbers described here. I accept that such numbers exist. Some things we just don't have the science to fully know yet. Such as is the universe really expanding or is the matter within in actually compressing or shrinking? Who has the math or scientific knowledge to definitively answer that question?

Since I am a person of faith, some things I simply base on faith though even that faith contains elements of personal experience, logic, reason and trust in the dedicated research of others.

Since I am a person of insatiable curiosity, I wonder about a lot of this stuff. I have this 'list' of questions that is the only thing I want to take to heaven with me to get answers on the theory I won't recall all of them.

And because I am no Einstein and unable to wrap my mind around many concepts that were easy for him and others of his intellect, I just accept that I won't be able to personally verify this or that information in my lifetime.

(But just because I don't understand it is not sufficient in order for me to definitively say it isn't so.)

You have the kind of mind that if it was very common, and commonly used, would solve most of the World's problems in a flash.

 

[Robert W]

God is not a miracle?

Depends on if you think humans created the universe.

 

[Robert W]

You're incorrect since evolution is NOT a random process as your calculations would imply.

We all agree there is this enormous universe, Chem Engineer happens to be brilliant. There are important questions. Can the universe create itself? This leads to if it can't who can create a universe? Then well ahead of evolution, who knows for sure that a collection of minerals simply self-created a life form? A very important book was written by Professor Schopf called the Cradle of life.

 

[Robert W]

Evolution is a Fact
God is a Theory

You look at things wrongly.
Evolution does not explain creation. For example, what is our universe evolving into or from? What evolved into the first life form?

Question just for the smart people.

What happened to create the universe?

 

[scruffy]

What happened to create the universe?

 

[scruffy]

Study basic physics. Study Noether's work on symmetry. Conservation of energy comes from time symmetry. Entropy is also conserved in reversible processes. Entropy is information. Information is conserved in reversible processes. In irreversible processes, where does it go? Study Landauer's principle. You can not erase a bit without generating heat. It takes energy to create a bit. Entropy (information) is just energy in another form.

 

[rightwinger]

Question just for the smart people.

What happened to create the universe?

We don’t know

But logic dictates it does not prove…..therefore, it must be God

 

[Robert W]

We don’t know

But logic dictates it does not prove…..therefore, it must be God

Seems you don't know yet you want to exclude GOD.

GOD is not fiction.

 

[Robert W]

Study basic physics. Study Noether's work on symmetry. Conservation of energy comes from time symmetry. Entropy is also conserved in reversible processes. Entropy is information. Information is conserved in reversible processes. In irreversible processes, where does it go? Study Landauer's principle. You can not erase a bit without generating heat. It takes energy to create a bit. Entropy (information) is just energy in another form.

What are you trying to explain? You gave advice.

 

[scruffy]

What are you trying to explain? You gave advice.

Question: is there any information in white noise?

 

[rightwinger]

Seems you don't know yet you want to exclude GOD.

GOD is not fiction.

God is a theory
I have no idea how everything got here so a magic man must have popped it into existence

 

[scruffy]

You look at things wrongly.

^^^

Maybe creation isn't what you think it is.

Maybe you think in terms of a "thing" that got created (like, a universe or something).

But when every "thing" is removed, what's left?

"No"-thing, right? And we already know the primary feature of the vacuum, which is non-zero probability.

Non-zero probability means information.

Maybe it's the information that got created. And since it had nowhere to go, it became energy.

 

[Robert W]

^^^

Maybe creation isn't what you think it is.

Maybe you think in terms of a "thing" that got created (like, a universe or something).

But when every "thing" is removed, what's left?

"No"-thing, right? And we already know the primary feature of the vacuum, which is non-zero probability.

Non-zero probability means information.

Maybe it's the information that got created. And since it had nowhere to go, it became energy.

There is a lot not understood. Today I watched a video of a machine launched to a comet thinking it was from outside our solar system. When it returned to earth, it proved the comet came from our own Sun. So, I never assume anything.

Vacuum your mind from all that you believe.
Here is the problem to solve first.
Nothing exists. Not a speck.

A Universe is forming.

Can you explain this?

 

[scruffy]

Nothing exists. Not a speck.

See? You're stuck on the thing-ness.

Let's try it a different way. You know about Bayes' rule? Probably the most important law in all of statistics.

You can ask any statistician what "zero probability" means.

Bayes' rule deals with how you update your statistics when you get new evidence. Bayes' rule says:

posterior = (likelihood * prior) / evidence

and you can plainly see, that if your prior probability is 0, it doesn't matter what kind of evidence you get.

There's no such thing as 0 probability. Just like there's no such thing as nothing.

We can prove this mathematically. If you allow "nothing" then you've created a universe with holes in it. (These are the "Betti numbers" in topology). And you can't have that, it's important the universe be compact, otherwise the laws of physics wouldn't hold in some places.

 

[Robert W]

See? You're stuck on the thing-ness.

Let's try it a different way. You know about Bayes' rule? Probably the most important law in all of statistics.

You can ask any statistician what "zero probability" means.

Bayes' rule deals with how you update your statistics when you get new evidence. Bayes' rule says:

posterior = (likelihood * prior) / evidence

and you can plainly see, that if your prior probability is 0, it doesn't matter what kind of evidence you get.

There's no such thing as 0 probability. Just like there's no such thing as nothing.

We can prove this mathematically. If you allow "nothing" then you've created a universe with holes in it. (These are the "Betti numbers" in topology). And you can't have that, it's important the universe be compact, otherwise the laws of physics wouldn't hold in some places.

Sounds like you believe GOD always existed.

 

[ReinyDays]

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