Start celebrating!

[Avorysuds]

I have a serious question.

Why would people elect Romney for a possible 8 years when they would only have Obama for 4 more? They are damn near identical. In anything that matters they are the same...

Anyone who says they are "Damn near identical" hasnt bothered to actually analyze anything they stand for IMHO.

On policy they are... You know this so plz stop pretending.

 

[Avatar4321]

I have a serious question.

Why would people elect Romney for a possible 8 years when they would only have Obama for 4 more? They are damn near identical. In anything that matters they are the same...

Anyone who says they are "Damn near identical" hasnt bothered to actually analyze anything they stand for IMHO.

On policy they are... You know this so plz stop pretending.

So Obama believes in Federalism now? Romney is supportng Obamacare? Obama has become pro life? Romney is for gay marriage now? Obama wants to cut spending? Romney wants the government controling everything?

They arent the same. In fact, no one is identical. To claim they are is at worst intellectual dishonesty and at best an unwillingness to actually make a comparison.

 

[Shelzin]

The University of Colorado just came out with their study that predicts the presidential winner. They have apparently never been wrong in the 32 yrs they've been doing this.

Romney - 53% and 313? EV [I think I caught that number right]
Obama - 47%

Apparently there is one predictor that has been fairly reliable thru the years and that is that an incumbent will get the same % of the vote as his job approval rating. That pretty much matches the U of C study.

This was just on the news so have no link.

From the link:

According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.

This is the strongest year I've been alive for a third party. You can deny it all you want, and hell... Maybe you are right... But I think a shitload of voters went from republican to libertarian.

 

[candycorn]

Absolute polls are meaningless at this time. The current polls only provide trands based on who will respond.

I didn't reference polls.

Speaking of which though, almost all polls based on telephonic interaction under count the youth vote. The youths have rejected the landline in favor of cell-only in a great many instances. Most polling organizations don't call the cell phones.

The Youth Vote may not be as Obama lopsided as last time.

A Romney first: over 40% of youth vote back him | WashingtonExaminer.com

There is also indications that the youth vote is not as mobilized as last time, so the combination of more romney voters in that pool, combined with less overall voters is a bad one for Obama.

The Youth vote had nowhere to go but downward for Obama. According to your source he's still ahead comfortably. And the dismobilization is effecting both men the same.
When you add Obama's advantage in the Youth vote to his lock on the intellectual, minority, and women's vote; the Governor is circling the drain.

 

[swizzlee]

You must be too young for Ross Perot..........

Yes, I will deny I've seen any evidence that Gary Johnson or whoever will make a serious impact on this race.

And at the same time, I've seen polls that show anywhere from 17 to 20% of Dems are now Indies.

Be that as it may, you can add in a few percentage points for a 3rd party but it's still not going to likely change the outcome of the election other than in the spread.

 

[Shelzin]

You must be too young for Ross Perot..........

No... I'm not. Edit: yes, I am... Eh... No... I'm not. /Edit

Yes, I will deny I've seen any evidence that Gary Johnson or whoever will make a serious impact on this race.

And at the same time, I've seen polls that show anywhere from 17 to 20% of Dems are now Indies.

yeah... Polls are a good way to judge.

Be that as it may, you can add in a few percentage points for a 3rd party but it's still not going to likely change the outcome of the election other than in the spread.

It's not about just adding percentage points to the third party... It's taking from one party and adding it to them. The majority of the people leaving are from the republican party to the libertarian. *shrugs*

If you don't win with the platform 4 years ago I'm not sure why anyone would think that by not changing it they are going to win now... *shrugs*

 

[swizzlee]

Whatever floats your boat......

Perhaps you should provide some evidence beyond your opinion that Pubs are joining the Libertarians in any significant numbers. You might be taken a little more serious.

<shrugs>

 

[martybegan]

I didn't reference polls.

Speaking of which though, almost all polls based on telephonic interaction under count the youth vote. The youths have rejected the landline in favor of cell-only in a great many instances. Most polling organizations don't call the cell phones.

The Youth Vote may not be as Obama lopsided as last time.

A Romney first: over 40% of youth vote back him | WashingtonExaminer.com

There is also indications that the youth vote is not as mobilized as last time, so the combination of more romney voters in that pool, combined with less overall voters is a bad one for Obama.

The Youth vote had nowhere to go but downward for Obama. According to your source he's still ahead comfortably. And the dismobilization is effecting both men the same.
When you add Obama's advantage in the Youth vote to his lock on the intellectual, minority, and women's vote; the Governor is circling the drain.

Not so on the youth vote. 1, its tilting back towards romney, 2, its decreasing overall, therefore it hurts obama more than romeny, depending on which states it is happening in.

On the black vote, yes he still has the numbers, but thier enthusiasm is way down. Other minorities with the exception of hispanic arent big enough to make a difference, and with Hispanic you always have to watch out about the social issues thing. Go to hard on abortion and you will lose votes, or lose turnout.

Finally the intellectual vote is so small as to render it meaningless, unless you mean the affluent limosuine lberal vote, and those states are already going to Obama, so thier turnout is meaningless.

 

[Old Rocks]

Hmmm.........

President Obama 303 Governor Romney 235

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Florida Tie

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

 

[blastoff]

Then why bother asking the question?

Personally I feel with your overall attitude, you should probably not vote at all or vote for some no-name if you wish to feel like you contributed to the process.

Yeah. I won't be wasting my vote I will be voting for someone drastically different from Obamney. Gary Johnson gets my vote if by some chance Romney is able to steal the nomination.

Steal the nomination? Okay, thanks for clearing things up.

 

[Katzndogz]

obama is losing the youth vote and he's losing the senior vote too. Watch for him to create a smaller subset in which he leads to at least claim he leads somewhere.

 

[martybegan]

Hmmm.........

President Obama 303 Governor Romney 235

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Florida Tie

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

You do realize the 303 shows he is only 1-3 states ahead? Also in those states he is less than 5% ahead in the current polls.

 

[Old Rocks]

Guess we will find out who has been bullshitting and who has the real lowdown on what the voters really think in November.

 

[Old Rocks]

Hmmm.........

President Obama 303 Governor Romney 235

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Florida Tie

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

You do realize the 303 shows he is only 1-3 states ahead? Also in those states he is less than 5% ahead in the current polls.

You do realize that in the tossup states, Florida is a tie, and Governor Romney is ahead only in North Carolina, and there only by 1%. The rest are all marginally for the President at present.

Unlike you fools, I am looking at the present reality, not bullshitting some alternative universe outcome.

 

[candycorn]

The Youth Vote may not be as Obama lopsided as last time.

A Romney first: over 40% of youth vote back him | WashingtonExaminer.com

There is also indications that the youth vote is not as mobilized as last time, so the combination of more romney voters in that pool, combined with less overall voters is a bad one for Obama.

The Youth vote had nowhere to go but downward for Obama. According to your source he's still ahead comfortably. And the dismobilization is effecting both men the same.
When you add Obama's advantage in the Youth vote to his lock on the intellectual, minority, and women's vote; the Governor is circling the drain.

Not so on the youth vote. 1, its tilting back towards romney, 2, its decreasing overall, therefore it hurts obama more than romeny, depending on which states it is happening in.

On the black vote, yes he still has the numbers, but thier enthusiasm is way down. Other minorities with the exception of hispanic arent big enough to make a difference, and with Hispanic you always have to watch out about the social issues thing. Go to hard on abortion and you will lose votes, or lose turnout.

Finally the intellectual vote is so small as to render it meaningless, unless you mean the affluent limosuine lberal vote, and those states are already going to Obama, so thier turnout is meaningless.

You should go to the track with your optimism. If Horse#1 breaks his leg, taking out 3-7 on the back stretch and #9-14 run into errant gunfire, #8 is a lock!

 

[martybegan]

Hmmm.........

President Obama 303 Governor Romney 235

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Florida Tie

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

You do realize the 303 shows he is only 1-3 states ahead? Also in those states he is less than 5% ahead in the current polls.

You do realize that in the tossup states, Florida is a tie, and Governor Romney is ahead only in North Carolina, and there only by 1%. The rest are all marginally for the President at present.

Unlike you fools, I am looking at the present reality, not bullshitting some alternative universe outcome.

ElectoralVote

Basically all the hollow states are 100% in play, and any of the faded colored states can switch to in play in the 3 months we have left. The trend has recently been more towards states being toss-ups than solidifying, and most of those going toss-up used to be owned by Obama. Also check that right now Romney picks up 4 states right now over 2008 vs. zero for Obama.

Right now all you look at is trending, and the trending is favoring the GOP. We will see after the conventions, and really after the first debate if the trend is going to change.

 

[Shelzin]

Whatever floats your boat......

Perhaps you should provide some evidence beyond your opinion that Pubs are joining the Libertarians in any significant numbers. You might be taken a little more serious.

<shrugs>

I'm ok with you not taking me serious. It doesn't hurt me at all if you do or don't.

 

[candycorn]

I have images of counting chickens prior to hatching dancing before my eyes.

Maybe. The Governor has no chance of beating Obama. Obama can still lose the election with some mis-steps and some major gaffes on his part. We both know that isn't going to happen.

There will be no bump from the convention that sustains; people have been introduced to Romney and decided they don't like what they see. The refusal to release tax records; admitting to paying 13% helps to seal his fate as an aloof aristocrat.

Please tell me what it is about the Governor I'm missing outside of his not being named Barack Obama.

You do Romney is two states away from winning it, and both states are weak to Obama right now. Electorally its a dead heat.

Tipping-Point State

Keep an eye on that table. before it was 4-5 states deep into the blue, now its only 2 states into blue. THAT table is what is going to decide the election.

How many states is he missing now?

Tipping-Point State

It's 5 states now.

Have you started celebrating yet?

 

[courseofhistory]

The University of Colorado just came out with their study that predicts the presidential winner. They have apparently never been wrong in the 32 yrs they've been doing this.

Romney - 53% and 313? EV [I think I caught that number right]
Obama - 47%

Apparently there is one predictor that has been fairly reliable thru the years and that is that an incumbent will get the same % of the vote as his job approval rating. That pretty much matches the U of C study.

This was just on the news so have no link.

Today (9/26/12) Obama's job approval rating is 51% per Gallup. I've seen reports on the news today up to 53%

So Obama is winning

 

[candycorn]

I love it when it comes back on them....