Where in the hell are you getting this idiocy from?
Observation.
The worse the dims get, the more people move out. Kaliphony, New Yawk and Illinoise are losing population overall -- Net. Even allowing for Childbirth they're losing people.
en.wikipedia.org
And what's making up most of the "growth'' (there isn't any) is Illegals. Michigan lost population, too. But Illegals made up the difference, so they gained like 3 people and a Ground Hog.
With OMB deporting Illegals by the bushel and with them running like bunny rabbits and with us offering them cash money to leave, the Blue States are gonna be hurtin' for certain.
To what extent is the question. Are they going to fall apart? Possibly. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of scumbags, but I don't think it's gonna all that soon.
The contrast is even more stark these days.
The reason, one of the major reasons, that they can't keep up with the real flow of people moving is -- People don't always change their Driver Licenses right away when they move. Sometimes -- Years. I didn't bother until my old one expired.... (3 years

) And even when they do, the State they're leaving doesn't always get notice to cancel an existing DL. And that's where we get the incoming - outgoing population numbers. That, and guesstimation.
Hard-Blue States are in a world of hurt.
Why don't you know this??